MODELLING OF DISTRIBUTION LOAD PATTERN FOR ODI-OLOWO AND IKIRUN ROAD
DISTRIBUTION SUBSTATIONS, OSOGBO
Electrical energy occupies the top position in the energy hierarchy and
its demand is not always met in Osogbo due to overloading of
distribution transformers. In the past, several methods have been used
to solve the problem of load demand and forecasting like Parametric
Methods, Trend Analysis, Isolated Area Load Forecasting, Long and Short
Time Load Forecasting. This work aimed to model the distribution load
pattern of Odi-Olowo and Ikirun road distribution substations in Osogbo,
Osun state for the purpose of forecasting load demand for the future.
The readings were the peak hourly readings in Amps as documented by the
power holding conpany of Nigeria (PHCN). The data were recorded and
arranged on daily basis. It was transformed using Microsoft Excel
Package. A scatter diagram was plotted with the transformed load in
(MVA) on the vertical (y) axis and the dates on the horizontal (x) axis
using the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) version 17.
“Best line of fit or surface” was drawn using the least square method,
a test of significance was conducted for each of the fitted line or
surface and model equations were obtained for the three transformers.
The scatter diagram shows a linear relationship between transformer load
demand and date, Correlation coefficient of 0.661, 0.665 and 0.446 were
obtained for transformer 1,2 and 3 respectively. Analysis of Variance
indicated about 43.7%, 43% and 19% of the variation in capacity of
transformers 1, 2 and 3 respectively. Linear models were obtained for
forecasting load power distribution. The predicted results showed a high
degree of closeness for the distribution load pattern of the three
transformers.The model developed can be used to determine the load
pattern of electrical distribution substation which will assist utility
companies in efficient operation planning.