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COVID-19: FORECAST OF AN EMERGING URGENCY IN PAKISTAN
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  • Rabia Chaudhry,
  • Asif hanif ,
  • Muhammad Chaudhary,
  • Sadia Minhas,
  • Khalid Mirza ,
  • Tahira Ashraf ,
  • Syed Gilani
Rabia Chaudhry
The University of Lahore
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Asif hanif
The University of Lahore
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Muhammad Chaudhary
University of Derby
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Sadia Minhas
Akhtar Saeed Medical and Dental College
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Khalid Mirza
Akhtar Saeed Medical and Dental College
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Tahira Ashraf
The University of Lahore
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Syed Gilani
The University of Lahore
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Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been declared a pandemic of 2020 by World Health Organization (WHO). Due to its novelty there is very little knowledge available about it, and thus there is a great need of collection of data related to COVID-19, from all around the world. Hence, we have conducted this study, collecting daily data on COVID-19 from National Institute of Health (NIH) Pakistan and WHO, to map the epidemiology of COVID-19 outbreak, forecast its trajectory from 4th April till 30th April, and review the preventive measures taken by government of Pakistan. The data was collected from NIH-Pakistan and WHO official released reports, analysis was done using SPSS version 23 and forecasting was made using time series modeler / expert modeler. The purpose of this study is to draw the attention of international as well as national governing bodies towards the rapidly rising number of COVID-19 cases in Pakistan, and the urgency to evaluate the efficacy of currently implemented strategy against COVID-19. According to this study, the spread of COVID-19 is slower than predicted, but there is an alarming increase in growth rate now, and the predicted COVID-19 cases by the end of April can go up to around 8,000 or higher. Hence, it is crucial for the governing bodies to re-evaluate the current situation and implemented strategy. Discussions should be conducted by the administrators and researchers for any change in the strategy if required, before the situation further aggravates.