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Modelling of the spatio-temporal dynamic of sand dunes and analysis of ecological factor influencing this dynamic in the district of Errachidia, Morocco
  • Tudal SINSIN,
  • Fouad MOUNIR,
  • Ahmed El ABOUDI
Tudal SINSIN
Mohammed 5 University, Faculty of Science of Rabat
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Fouad MOUNIR
National Forestry School of Engineers, Sale, Morocco
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Ahmed El ABOUDI
Mohammed 5 University, Faculty of Science of Rabat
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Abstract

Desertification is a process that occurs in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid region mainly but not only. Sand dunes cover 20% of these arid to hyper-arid regions. The sand dune dynamics, due to several ecological factors, threatens dwellings, croplands, irrigation canals, roads, and oases. In order to deduce the sand dune past and future dynamics paradigm, we used Time Series Forecasting Methods in Python, Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) to spatio-temporal sand dune dynamics monitoring (1987–2019) and sand dune expansion modelling (2019–2069) of Errachidia, Morroco. For this purpose, the annual Landsat satellite images were downloaded from 1987 to 2019. Then, Sandy Cover Index (SCI) was performed to determine the area of the sand dunes. This area was used to implement Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average (SARIMA) model for forecasting on sand dune dynamics until 2069. Finally, we performed a statistical analysis to assess the influence of various ecological factors (temperature, precipitation and wind) on sand dune dynamics. The results point out an increase of sand dune area over the next years. This increase would be caused by the combined action of ecological factors. Wind speed and temperature influences sand dune migration in areas where soils are bare or poorly covered by vegetation and where rainfall is low. These results will provide local authorities to develop strategic plans to face the advance of desert and silting in Errachidia.