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Change in the ASF entry risk into Japan as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic
  • +2
  • Katsuaki Sugiura,
  • Katsumasa Kure,
  • Takuma Kato,
  • Fumiaki Kyutoku,
  • Takeshi Haga
Katsuaki Sugiura
The University of Tokyo Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences Faculty of Agriculture
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Katsumasa Kure
Value Farm Consulting
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Takuma Kato
The University of Tokyo Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences Faculty of Agriculture
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Fumiaki Kyutoku
The University of Tokyo Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences Faculty of Agriculture
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Takeshi Haga
University of Tokyo
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Abstract

Using a model developed previously by the authors, a risk assessment was conducted to predict the change in the risk of ASF entering Japan as a result of the coronavirus pandemic in humans. The annual probability of ASF entering Japan was calculated to be 23% (90% prediction interval: 0-91%), 4.7% (0-24%) in February, 0.4% (0-2.1%) in March and 0.004% (0-0.01%) in April 2020 indicating a significant decline in the risk of ASF entry into Japan from China. The decline was attributed to a decline in the number of air travelers from China and amount of restaurant food.

Peer review status:ACCEPTED

24 Jun 2020Submitted to Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
25 Jun 2020Submission Checks Completed
25 Jun 2020Assigned to Editor
30 Jun 2020Reviewer(s) Assigned
26 Jul 2020Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
27 Jul 2020Editorial Decision: Revise Major
30 Jul 20201st Revision Received
30 Jul 2020Assigned to Editor
30 Jul 2020Submission Checks Completed
31 Jul 2020Reviewer(s) Assigned
08 Sep 2020Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
08 Sep 2020Editorial Decision: Revise Minor
09 Sep 20202nd Revision Received
09 Sep 2020Assigned to Editor
09 Sep 2020Submission Checks Completed
09 Sep 2020Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
10 Sep 2020Editorial Decision: Accept