Abstract
To improve understanding of real-world asthma treatment and inform
physician education, we evaluated regional variation in asthma
prevalence and oral corticosteroid (OCS) use across Germany. We
developed a machine learning gradient boosted tree model with IMS®
Disease Analyzer electronic medical records, which cover 3% of German
patients. This model had a 91% accuracy in predicting the presence of
asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. We applied the model
to the IMS® Longitudinal Prescription database, with 82% national
coverage, to classify patients receiving treatment for airflow
obstruction from October 2017–September 2018 in 63 regions in Germany.
Of 2.4 million individuals under statutory health insurance with
predicted high OCS use for asthma (defined as 1 tablet per day for the
duration of therapy), 13.7%, 18.7%, 36.5%, 29.4%, and 1.7% were
categorised as receiving Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA) Steps 1, 2,
3, 4, and 5 treatment, respectively. Approximately 7–15% of those
receiving GINA Steps 1–4 treatment, and 35% of those receiving Step 5
treatment received ≥1 acute OCS prescription (duration <10
days). Of patients receiving GINA Steps 1–4 and Step 5 treatments,
1–3% and 86%, respectively, received ≥1 OCS prescription defined as
high OCS use. Cumulative OCS dosage and percentages of patients
receiving OCS differed substantially across regions, and regions with
lower OCS use had greater use of biologic therapies. Both acute and high
OCS use varied regionally across Germany, with overall use greater than
recommended by guidelines for all degrees of asthma severity.