A prediction for the possibility of the transboundry import of Peste des
petits ruminants in western
China by validation of transboundry transmission paths
Abstract
Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly infectious transboundary
disease of small ruminants caused by peste-des-petits-ruminants virus.
It is one of the most destructive diseases in sheep industry in Africa,
Asia and the Middle East. In Pamir Plateau, India, Pakistan,
Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and other countries bordering Tibet
and Xinjiang of China are all PPR epidemic areas. Within this region,
there are many big population size wild small ruminants, moving freely
across the border. The time-honored transboundary nomadic lifestyle
results in transboundary migration of livestock too. China has
experienced two national epidemics, which can be sourced back to Tibet
and Xinjiang. In order to reach the China National Plan for the
Eradication of Peste des Petits Ruminants and construct a national wide
free zone without immunization in 2020, effective control of
transboundary spreading and imported cases is an unavoidable choice. For
the countries in the pan Pamir Plateau, the spatial risk distribution of
PPR were predicted by a variety of eco-geographical, anthropoid and
meteorological variants first time; by the resistance surface analysis,
maximum available transboundary paths for PPR spreading by small
ruminants were calculated. Finally, 5 paths were obtained, respectively
from Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Pakistan and Kashmir to enter Xinjiang and
Tibet of China through different channels. This study not only confirmed
the fact of transboundary communication of small ruminants for the first
time, but also provided specific objectives for PPR prevention. This
research can also provide new methods for the prevention and control of
other transboundary infectious diseases.