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A prediction for the possibility of the transboundry import of Peste des petits ruminants in western China by validation of transboundry transmission paths
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  • Shan Gao,
  • GuoYong Xu,
  • JiaNing Lv,
  • LiYa Huang ,
  • HaoNing Wang,
  • XiaoLong Wang
Shan Gao
Northeast Forestry University
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GuoYong Xu
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JiaNing Lv
Northeast Forestry University
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LiYa Huang
Changbai Mountain Academy of Sciences
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HaoNing Wang
Northeast Forestry University
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XiaoLong Wang
Northeast Forestry University
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Abstract

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly infectious transboundary disease of small ruminants caused by peste-des-petits-ruminants virus. It is one of the most destructive diseases in sheep industry in Africa, Asia and the Middle East. In Pamir Plateau, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and other countries bordering Tibet and Xinjiang of China are all PPR epidemic areas. Within this region, there are many big population size wild small ruminants, moving freely across the border. The time-honored transboundary nomadic lifestyle results in transboundary migration of livestock too. China has experienced two national epidemics, which can be sourced back to Tibet and Xinjiang. In order to reach the China National Plan for the Eradication of Peste des Petits Ruminants and construct a national wide free zone without immunization in 2020, effective control of transboundary spreading and imported cases is an unavoidable choice. For the countries in the pan Pamir Plateau, the spatial risk distribution of PPR were predicted by a variety of eco-geographical, anthropoid and meteorological variants first time; by the resistance surface analysis, maximum available transboundary paths for PPR spreading by small ruminants were calculated. Finally, 5 paths were obtained, respectively from Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Pakistan and Kashmir to enter Xinjiang and Tibet of China through different channels. This study not only confirmed the fact of transboundary communication of small ruminants for the first time, but also provided specific objectives for PPR prevention. This research can also provide new methods for the prevention and control of other transboundary infectious diseases.