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Decreased Case Fatality Rate of COVID-19 in the Second Wave: a study in 53 countries.
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  • Guihong Fan,
  • Zhichun Yang,
  • Qianying Lin,
  • Shi Zhao,
  • Lin Yang,
  • Daihai He
Guihong Fan
Columbus State University
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Zhichun Yang
Chongqing Normal University
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Qianying Lin
University of Michigan
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Lin Yang
Hong Kong Polytechnic University
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Abstract

The raw case fatality rate (CFR, reported number of COVID-19 deaths divided by the number of cases) is a useful indicator to quantify the severity or treatment efficacy in a locality. In many countries, the pandemic showed a two-wave pattern now, namely the daily reported cases once reached a low level and now went up. To our knowledge, no study has compared the CFR for the two waves. In this work, we report that in 53 countries or regions with the highest deaths, the CFR is reduced in 43 countries or regions in the on-going second wave. We discussed the possible reasons. Also, we compare the two-wave pattern of COVID-19 with the weekly influenza positive tests. The influenza activity in pre-pandemic era provided an indicator for climate in a country, since it is well-known that influenza is driven by weather. The sharp drop in 2020 influenza activity is an indicator of the effects of social distancing.

Peer review status:ACCEPTED

10 Aug 2020Submitted to Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
10 Aug 2020Submission Checks Completed
10 Aug 2020Assigned to Editor
15 Aug 2020Reviewer(s) Assigned
25 Aug 2020Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
25 Aug 2020Editorial Decision: Revise Minor
27 Aug 20201st Revision Received
27 Aug 2020Submission Checks Completed
27 Aug 2020Assigned to Editor
28 Aug 2020Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
28 Aug 2020Editorial Decision: Accept