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Poleward Bound: Adapting to climate-driven species redistribution
  • +16
  • Jess Melbourne-Thomas,
  • Asta Audzijonyte,
  • Madeleine J Brasier,
  • Katie Cresswell,
  • Hannah E Fogarty,
  • Marcus Haward,
  • Alistair J Hobday,
  • Heather L Hunt,
  • Scott D Ling,
  • Phillipa C Mccormack,
  • Tero Mustonen,
  • Kaisu Mustonen,
  • Janet Nye,
  • Michael Oellermann,
  • Rowan Trebilco,
  • Ingrid Van Putten,
  • Cecilia Villanueva,
  • Reg Watson,
  • Gretta T Pecl
Jess Melbourne-Thomas
Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Author Profile
Asta Audzijonyte
Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania
Madeleine J Brasier
Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania
Katie Cresswell
Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Hannah E Fogarty
Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania
Marcus Haward
Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania
Alistair J Hobday
Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Heather L Hunt
Department of Biological Sciences, University of New Brunswick
Scott D Ling
Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania
Phillipa C Mccormack
Faculty of Law, University of Tasmania, Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania
Tero Mustonen
Snowchange Cooperative
Kaisu Mustonen
Janet Nye
Institute of Marine Sciences, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Snowchange Cooperative
Michael Oellermann
Aquatic Systems Biology Unit, Technical University of Munich, Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania
Rowan Trebilco
Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Ingrid Van Putten
Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Cecilia Villanueva
Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania
Reg Watson
Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania
Gretta T Pecl
Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania

Abstract

One of the most pronounced effects of climate change on the world's oceans is the (generally) poleward movement of species and fishery stocks in response to increasing water temperatures. In some regions, such redistributions are already having diverse impacts on marine socioecological systems, including profoundly altering ecosystem structure and function, challenging domestic and international fisheries, and impacting on human communities. Such effects are expected to become increasingly widespread as waters continue to warm and species ranges continue to shift. Actions taken over the coming decade (2021-2030) can help us manage and adapt to species redistributions and minimise negative impacts on ecosystems and human communities, achieving a more sustainable future in the face of ecosystem change. We describe key drivers related to climate-driven species redistributions that are likely to have a high impact and influence on whether a sustainable future is reached by 2030. We posit two different futures-a 'business as usual' future and a technically achievable and more sustainable future, aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. We then identify concrete actions that provide a pathway towards the more sustainable 2030 and that acknowledge and include Indigenous perspectives. Achieving this sustainable future will depend on improved monitoring and detection, and on adaptive, cooperative management to proactively respond to the challenge of species redistribution. We synthesise examples of such actions as the basis of a strategic approach to tackle this global-scale challenge for the benefit of humanity and ecosystems.