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African Swine Fever spread across Asia, 2018---2019
  • Michael Ward,
  • Ellen Mighell
Michael Ward
University of Sydney
Author Profile
Ellen Mighell
University of Sydney
Author Profile

Abstract

African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) is a highly contagious pathogen causing disease in pigs, commonly characterised by acute haemorrhagic fever. Prior to August 2018, African Swine Fever (ASF) had not been reported in Asia, but has since spread throughout China, Mongolia, Korea, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Timor-Leste and Papua New Guinea. Using data collated from reports of confirmed cases, we applied spatio-temporal analysis to describe ASFV spread throughout Asia, from 1 August 2018 (reported start date) to 31 December 2019. Analysis revealed a propagating epidemic of ASFV throughout Asia, with peaks corresponding to increased reports from China, Vietnam and Laos. Two clusters of reported outbreaks were found. During the epidemic, ASFV primarily spread from the North-East to the South-East: a larger, secondary cluster in the North-East represented earlier reports, whilst the smaller, primary cluster in the South-East was characterised by later reports. Significant differences in country-specific epidemics, morbidity, mortality and unit types were discovered, likely attributable to differences in prevention, surveillance and control measures. The initial number of outbreaks and enterprise size are likely predictors of the speed of spread and the effectiveness of ASFV stamping out procedures. Biosecurity methods, wild boar populations and the transportation of pigs and movement of infected fomites are discussed as likely risk factors for facilitating ASFV spread across Asia.

Peer review status:ACCEPTED

03 Dec 2020Submitted to Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
03 Dec 2020Submission Checks Completed
03 Dec 2020Assigned to Editor
08 Dec 2020Reviewer(s) Assigned
17 Jan 2021Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
24 Jan 2021Editorial Decision: Revise Major
02 Feb 20211st Revision Received
02 Feb 2021Assigned to Editor
02 Feb 2021Submission Checks Completed
05 Feb 2021Reviewer(s) Assigned
13 Feb 2021Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
13 Feb 2021Editorial Decision: Revise Minor
13 Feb 20212nd Revision Received
13 Feb 2021Assigned to Editor
13 Feb 2021Submission Checks Completed
16 Feb 2021Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
16 Feb 2021Editorial Decision: Accept