Abstract
River flood season segmentation is a significant measure for flood
prevention. The objective of this study is to carry out theoretical
analysis on flood season segmentation methods and put forward a
framework for reasonable flood season segmentation. The proposed
framework consists of a Fisher optimal partition method for determining
the optimum numbers of the sub-seasons, an ensemble approach for
segmenting a defined flood season, and a Non-parametric bootstrap
combined with fuzzy optimum selection method (NB-FOS) for testing the
rationality of the flood season staging schemes. The present research
findings show that different methods could result in different staging
schemes. It is proved through rational analysis that the staging scheme
obtained by Probability change-point (PCP) is superior to others. The
flood season of the downstream reach of Yellow River can be segmented
into 3 sub-seasons, i.e. early flood season(Jun.01-July 20), main flood
season (July 21- Sept.28), and late flood season (Sept.29- Nov.08). The
segmentation results of the flood season should play active role in
flood prevention.