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Distributions of LRS in varying environments
  • +2
  • Shripad Tuljapurkar,
  • WENYUN ZUO,
  • Tim Coulson,
  • Carol C. Horvitz,
  • Jean-Michel Gaillard
Shripad Tuljapurkar
Stanford University
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WENYUN ZUO
Stanford University
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Tim Coulson
Oxford
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Carol C. Horvitz
University of Miami
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Jean-Michel Gaillard
UMR-CNRS 5558
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Abstract

The lifetime reproductive success (LRS) of individuals is affected by random events such as death, realized growth, or realized reproduction, and the outcomes of these events can differ even when individuals have identical probabilities. Another source of randomness arises when these probabilities also change over time in variable environments. For structured populations in stochastic environments, we extend our recent method to determine how birth environment and birth stage determine the random distribution of the LRS. Our results provide a null model that quantifies effects on LRS of just the birth size or stage. Using Roe deer Capreolus capreolus as a case study, we show that the effect of an individual’s birth environment on LRS varies with the frequency of environments and their temporal autocorrelation, and that lifetime performance is affected by changes in the pattern of environmental states expected as a result of climate change.

Peer review status:ACCEPTED

30 Jan 2021Submitted to Ecology Letters
01 Feb 2021Assigned to Editor
01 Feb 2021Submission Checks Completed
04 Feb 2021Reviewer(s) Assigned
03 Mar 2021Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
05 Mar 2021Editorial Decision: Accept