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Potential distribution of Artemisia annua L.under climate change
  • +4
  • Hongjun Jiang,
  • Ting Liu,
  • Shiping Gao,
  • Ruijun Wang,
  • Ruchun Zhang,
  • Henan Meng,
  • Lijuan Li
Hongjun Jiang
Institute of Geographical Sciences, Hebei Academy of Sciences
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Ting Liu
College of Teachers' Education, Hebei Normal Universtiy
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Shiping Gao
Institute of Geographical Sciences, Hebei Academy of Sciences
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Ruijun Wang
Institute of Geographical Sciences, Hebei Academy of Sciences
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Ruchun Zhang
Institute of Geographical Sciences, Hebei Academy of Sciences
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Henan Meng
Institute of Geographical Sciences, Hebei Academy of Sciences
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Lijuan Li
Senckenberg Research Institute
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Abstract

Aim: Artemisia annua L. is the one and only original plant used to isolate artemisinin which is a highly effective remedy to fight malaria. Climate change leads to change of distribution and suitable range for many species and A. annua is no exception. However, it is not clear that the potential distribution and suitable range change of this unique plant under climate change. Therefore, we present this research to study its change in the future. Location: Global. Methods: Since the accuracy of species distribution models was affected by occurrence records and environmental variables, 1062 presence records and 7 variables were picked out to build ensemble models with 10 different algorithms by means of biomod2 under current and future climate scenarios. Results: At present, except SRE, the AUC values of the rest models were greater than 0.8, and the TSS values were greater than 0.6, the values of ensemble model were 0.968 and 0.826 respectively. Mean temperature of driest quarter was the dominant factor to shape the range of A. annua and its optimum interval ranged from 4.8 to 23.3ÂșC. The high suitable habitats of A. annua were mainly located in Eastern Asia, Western Europe, Central Europe. In the future, the high suitable area would decline at 15.55% to 25.87%. Main conclusions: Ensemble models showed it performed better than any the single one. At present, the high suitable habitat simulated by ensemble model was in accordance with the actual occurrence records. In the future, the high suitable habitat for A. annua would move northeast, and disappear in North America. They would increase with time under each SSP, but sharply decline while comparing with the current one. This study can be used to protect wild resource and guide cultivation for A. annua, which would make modest contribution to fight malaria.