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Predicting range shifts of Davidia involucrata Ball. under future climate change
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  • Teng Long,
  • Junfeng Tang,
  • Nicholas Pilfold,
  • Xuzhe Zhao,
  • Tingfa Dong
Teng Long
China West Normal University
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Junfeng Tang
China West Normal University
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Nicholas Pilfold
San Diego Zoo Institute for Conservation Research
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Xuzhe Zhao
China West Normal University
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Tingfa Dong
China West Normal University
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Abstract

Understanding and predicting how species will response to future climate change is crucial for biodiversity conservation. Here, we conducted an assessment of future climate change impacts on the distribution of D. involucrate in China, using the most recent global circulation models developed in the sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC6). We assessed the potential range shifts in this species by using an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs). The ensemble SDMs exhibited high predictive ability and suggested that the temperature annual range, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of the driest month are the most influential predictors in shaping distribution patterns of this species. The projections of the ensemble SDMs also suggested that D. involucrate is very vulnerable to future climate change, with at least one-third of its suitable range expected to be lost in all future climate change scenarios and will shift to the northward of high-latitude regions. These findings suggest that it is of great urgent and significance to adaptive management strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on D. involucrate.

Peer review status:IN REVISION

21 Apr 2021Submitted to Ecology and Evolution
23 Apr 2021Assigned to Editor
23 Apr 2021Submission Checks Completed
01 May 2021Reviewer(s) Assigned
15 May 2021Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
19 May 2021Editorial Decision: Revise Minor