Predicting range shifts of Davidia involucrata Ball. under future
Understanding and predicting how species will response to future climate
change is crucial for biodiversity conservation. Here, we conducted an
assessment of future climate change impacts on the distribution of D.
involucrate in China, using the most recent global circulation models
developed in the sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC6). We assessed the potential range shifts in
this species by using an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs).
The ensemble SDMs exhibited high predictive ability and suggested that
the temperature annual range, annual mean temperature, and precipitation
of the driest month are the most influential predictors in shaping
distribution patterns of this species. The projections of the ensemble
SDMs also suggested that D. involucrate is very vulnerable to future
climate change, with at least one-third of its suitable range expected
to be lost in all future climate change scenarios and will shift to the
northward of high-latitude regions. These findings suggest that it is of
great urgent and significance to adaptive management strategies to
mitigate the impacts of climate change on D. involucrate.