Temporal changes in the potential geographic distribution of Histiotus
velatus (Chiroptera, Vespertilionidae), the “decade effect”
Also investigate how the potential distribution of this species changes
with the addition of new records over the decades (decade effect).
Assuming that (1: hypothesis of the effect of the decade) the addition
of new occurrence records over time increases the potential size of the
species distribution; and (2: Wallacean distance hypothesis) over the
years, the new points added are increasingly distant from the research
centers. Considering the geographic knowledge gap of Histiotu velatus,
our objective is to report a new record of this species and estimate its
potential distribution in South America through ENMs. For this, we
compiled records of occurrence of species, selected from 1900 to 2015.
We used 19 bioclimatic variables available in the WorldCLim database to
estimate the potential distribution of the species and we used three
modeling algorithms: Maximum Entropy (MXT) Random Forest (RDF) and
Support Vector Machine (SVM). We selected the main bat research centers
in Brazil, using the Lattes platform for the Wallacean distance
hypothesis, using the Euclidean distance calculation. To test the
hypothesis of the decade effect, we used beta regression analysis,
taking conservative and non-conservative approaches. The results showed
that the predicted area expanded and retracted over the decades, with an
improvement in the accuracy of the models with the addition of new data.
Most of the records are located in the southeastern region of Brazil,
but the algorithms predicted areas in countries where there were no
records. Only the conservatism approach has had a positive relationship
over the decades. The distance from new points does not increase over
the years of research centers.