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Spatiotemporal dynamics of foot and mouth disease outbreaks in India, 2008-2016
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  • Umanga Gunasekera,
  • Jitendra Biswal,
  • Gustavo Machado,
  • Rajeev Ranjan,
  • Saravanan Subramaniam,
  • Manoranjan Rout,
  • Jajati Mohapatra,
  • Bramhadev Pattnaik,
  • Rabindra Prasad Singh,
  • Jonathan Arzt,
  • Andres Perez,
  • Kimberly VanderWaal
Umanga Gunasekera
University of Minnesota Department of Veterinary Population Medicine
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Jitendra Biswal
Project Directorate on Foot and Mouth Disease
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Gustavo Machado
North Carolina State University College of Veterinary Medicine
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Rajeev Ranjan
Project Directorate on Foot and Mouth Disease
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Saravanan Subramaniam
Project Directorate on Foot and Mouth Disease
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Manoranjan Rout
Project Directorate on Foot and Mouth Disease
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Jajati Mohapatra
Project Directorate on Foot and Mouth Disease
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Bramhadev Pattnaik
Project Directorate on Foot and Mouth Disease
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Rabindra Prasad Singh
Project Directorate on Foot and Mouth Disease
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Jonathan Arzt
USDA-ARS Plum Island Animal Disease Center Branch
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Andres Perez
University of Minnesota Department of Veterinary Population Medicine
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Kimberly VanderWaal
University of Minnesota Department of Veterinary Population Medicine
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Abstract

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in India, where circulation of serotypes O, A and Asia 1 is frequent. In the past two decades, many of the most widespread and significant FMD lineages globally have emerged from the South Asia region. Here, we provide an epidemiological assessment of the ongoing mass vaccination programs in regard to post-vaccination monitoring and outbreak occurrence. The objective of this study was to quantify the spatiotemporal dynamics of FMD outbreaks and to assess the impact of the mass vaccination program between 2008 to 2016 with available antibody titer data from the vaccination monitoring program, alongside other risk factors that facilitate FMD spread in the country. We first conducted a descriptive analysis of epidemiological outcomes of governmental vaccination programs in India, focusing on antibody titer data from >1 million animals sampled as part of pre- and post-vaccination monitoring and estimates of standardized incidence ratios calculated from reported outbreaks per state/administrative unit. The percent of animals with inferred immunological protection (based on ELISA) was highly variable across states, but there was a general increase in the overall percent of animals with inferred protection through time. In addition, the number of outbreaks in a state was negatively correlated with the percent of animals with inferred protection. Because standardized incidence ratios of outbreaks were heterogeneously distributed over the course of eight years, we analyzed the distribution of reported FMD outbreaks using a Bayesian space-time model to map high-risk areas. This model demonstrated a ~50% reduction in the relative risk of outbreaks in states that were part of the vaccination program. In addition, states that did not have an international border experienced reduced risk of FMD outbreaks. These findings help inform risk-based control strategies for India as the country progresses towards reducing reported clinical disease.

Peer review status:UNDER REVIEW

28 May 2021Submitted to Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
04 Jun 2021Assigned to Editor
04 Jun 2021Submission Checks Completed
08 Jun 2021Reviewer(s) Assigned