Climate extreme

Extreme changes from model projections: \cite{Orlowsky_2011} (Monier 2014)

Extreme precipitation change in US: \cite{Peterson_2008} \cite{DeGaetano_2009}\cite{Pryor_2009}, in global

Extreme climate index: \cite{Gleason_2008}

Drought pattern in US using PDSI: \cite{Ge_2016}

Temperature and drought interaction: \cite{Easterling_2007}

Extreme index

There is a large number of methods used to define extreme events, whether based on an absolute threshold (e.g., maximum daily temperature exceeding 35 °C) or on the distribution of a variable (e.g., percentile method), or like the indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI, Klein Tank et al. 2009).

Useful information

It is therefore important to take detailed time specific distributions of climate parameters into consideration rather than relying on average annual mean values. Detailed regional analysis for Denmark confirms these complex relationships between climate parameter variations and wheat yield (Kühl 2005).
Hail insurance: http://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/hail
Detailed example of how to use crop condition report for yield prediction http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2017/06/how-to-use-within-season-crop-condition-ratings.html and http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2017/05/when-start-paying-attention-crop-condition-ratings.html

Warming shortens growing season and lowers yield.

Hot temperature: the duration and magnitude matter. However, the predictive skill of these phenology models will not always be good enough to examine whether or not the time of flowering coincides with a hot temperature event which may be of only 2–3 days duration.

Hurricane loss must be normalized considering population and wealth changes. \cite{Pielke_1998}

CAPE can be used as predictor to hailstorm. \cite{Niall_2005}

This is a very good review about extreme impact: \cite{Iizumi_2015}

Impact of Heat on yield (high temperature): \cite{Gourdji_2013} \cite{Deryng_2014}

Excessive rainfall impact: \cite{Rosenzweig_2002}

Climate impact on crop insurance: \cite{Iizumi_2008}

General: \cite{Rosenzweig_2001}

This study gives example of how to connect climate to economics (wheat production) \cite{Halsn_s_2007}

This paper discussed the scale issue of climate and soil data in crop yield simulation when compared with observation \cite{Olesen_2000}

Impact of extreme temperature can be mitigated by water availability, it also gives another statistical model \cite{Anderson_2015}

Weather Anomalies, Crop Yields, and Migration in the US Corn Belt: http://www.columbia.edu/~ws2162/articles/FengOppenheimerSchlenker.pdf

Database:

International disaster databas http://www.emdat.be/database

U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI):

Thoughts:

Risk = hazard probability (frequency) * exposure (crop plant areas) * vulnerability (insurance can change this )

Heat tolerance could change over time.

Estimate actual losses