- Premodern societies face a very steep "total loss minimization" constraint
- This reduces the possible tools at their disposal to address the social dilemma
- A methodological issue: Who is doing the minimization?
Superstition as a solution to the social dilemma
- What is superstition: Objectively false belief. Example: Marime among the gypsies.
- Superstition works through different channels. It can help solve the social dilemma by forcing people to internalize norms and by increasing the power of parties to enforce them (bilaterally, multilaterally, and from a third party)
Effective superstition
- Effective superstition has three necessary conditions:
- Superstitious beliefs must already exist in society
- Superstitious beliefs must be unfalsifiable
- These suggests a further question: Where do beliefs come from? From an economic perspective, the answer to this question is not necessary. What is necessary is that the belief, once introduced, is communicated to and internalized by the members of society. Example: Parenting.
- What contemporary beliefs are superstitious? What roles do they play?
Ordeals
The economics of information
- Modeling superstition requires making assumptions about people's beliefs and information
- Asymmetric information
- The single-crossing condition and the separating equilibrium
The ordeal game
- Two "types": guilty and innocent. We say that \(j\in\{j_g, j_i\}\)
- J's level of skepticism is indicated by \(\rho\in(0, 1)\), that is, the probability assigned to the fact that the result of the ordeal is authentically Iudicium Dei
- The ordeal is Iudicim clerici with probability \(1-\rho\). The clerics finds defendants guilty at rate \(\gamma\in (0, 1)\)
- Regardless of guilt, J gets payoff \(0\) if found innocent, \(\beta\) if found guilty, and \(\theta\) if he declines to participate in the ordeal, where \(\beta>\theta>0\)
- Solve the game
Result
- In order to be effective, the order must generate a separating equilibrium. This can only happen if \(\theta/(\beta-\rho\beta)>\gamma>(\theta-\rho\beta)/(\beta-\rho\beta)\)
- Implications
Malediction
- What is a subgame perfect?