Thank you for taking the time to complete this survey. This survey consists of 60 questions, and should take approximately 20 minutes to complete.
As a thank you for participating in this survey the results of this research will be distributed (following publication) to any respondents who wish to make use of this analysis in their own work (simply provide a contact email address with your responses, or leave blank if you do not wish to receive any further follow-up).

Forecasting changes

Simulated forecasts govern much of our lives (from predictions of the next week's weather, to projections of a nation's financial outlook, or warnings of traffic congestion as holiday-makers head away to the sun). However, our reaction to the information presented, and whether we choose to believe the predictions made depends greatly on the evidence that is displayed, and the credibility of the methods that are used to model these future scenarios. Equally, this depends on the manner in which the information is presented. The aim of this survey is to try to establish which factors are most critical in establishing the credibility of changes predicted by forecasts, and how existing modelling and simulation techniques fare when presented to different audiences.
This research forms part of a doctoral thesis examining the impact of disruptive innovations in Air Transportation (sponsored by Airbus Operations Ltd and the University of Bristol). The responses gathered in this survey will be used to assess the credibility of different forms of evidence for validating computer-generated forecasts, with the intention to publish the results of this analysis in academic journals.*
  1. This research forms part of a doctoral thesis examining the impact of disruptive innovations in Air Transportation (sponsored by Airbus Operations Ltd and the University of Bristol). The responses gathered in this survey will be used to assess the credibility of different forms of evidence for validating computer-generated forecasts, with the intention to publish the results of this analysis in academic journals.*
All personal data collated in this survey will be processed in accordance with the Data Protection Act 1998.  It will be stored electronically on Typeform's secure encrypted servers, for no longer than 2 years after the deadline for completion of the survey (1st August 2015), after which  it will be permanently deleted.  During this time, it will only be accessible by the principal researcher and will not be passed to any third parties without express written consent from the data subject (i.e. you).  The personal data will be processed for the purpose of creating anonymous demographic information to accompany the results of the survey.  Please tick the box marked "I accept" below to confirm that you are content for your personal data to be processed in this way.
Yes - I accept
No - I don’t accept

Personal Details

  1. What is your name?
(Leave blank if you do not wish to receive a copy of the anonymised final results)
  1. What is your contact email address?
(Leave blank if you do not wish to receive a copy of the anonymised final results)
  1. Which age category are you?*
  1. Are you male or female?*
  1. Which domain(s) best describes your current occupation?*
(Choose as many as you like)
  1. Which description best describes your place of work/study?*
  1. Would you describe yourself as either technically or scientifically minded?*   
  1. Would you describe yourself as either commercially or strategically minded?*
  1. Would you describe yourself as risk-averse?*
  1. Which information sources would you say you rely on most to anticipate likely future changes in your day-to-day life?*
(Choose as many as you like)

What are forecasts used for?

  1. How important is it to you that the motivation of the person or organisation producing a forecast is clearly stated alongside the results produced?*
e.g. Do you think that a clear statement of any personal influences (subjectivity) increases the credibility of the results and conclusions presented?