Forecasting disruptions

  1. If a disruptive event is predicted in the future, does having knowledge of the likely extent and localisation of the impact provide you with increased confidence that the disruption is likely to occur?*
e.g. If an economic forecast provides details of the businesses that would be most affected by a potential market crash, and the depth of the market impact, does this increase the probability, in your opinion, that the forecast disruption is realistic?