. In the three parts of the report, which include 1) a scientific basis 2) impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability 3) climate change mitigation, several natural and social phenomena are mentioned in different contexts associated with climate change. In order to examine whether the scientific interest in the different natural and social phenomena is related to climate change, we compare the general scientific interest with the interest of the IPCC in the phenomena.
In the course "Scales in the Climate System", we look at the climate system as well as at climate-related phenomena in the social system. The “scales in the climate system” refer to both social and natural phenomena and is the way of measuring and examining a certain phenomenon. In order to measure a phenomenon or its impact, it is first important to understand what is it made of. The different components of a certain phenomenon are agent, attributes, rules, and process. Each one of these components presents the different parts that build a certain phenomenon. The following paper focuses on two scales - IPCC and scientific interest, in order to examine 7 different social and natural phenomena. This examination allows to compare different phenomena and find a trend or an answer to the hypothesis.
The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the scientific interest in climatic phenomena shows a similar trend to the IPCC interest in the selected phenomena. The importance of this examination is the question of whether the scientific interest in climatic phenomena derives from an interest in climate change. My assumption was that the interest of the IPCC would show a similar trend to the general scientific interest in climatic phenomena, in other words, the scientific interest in climatic phenomena is related to climate change. It is important to note that the IPCC interest described above is related to the different aspects of climate change and does not necessarily reflect the general scientific interest. Moreover, it may be that scientific interest and publications on a particular phenomenon do not relate to issues of climate change but to other issues such as climate, weather, biology, history, etc.
The relevance of the research question in the context of the climate system is the understanding of the scientific research interest between 2003 and 2013 and the importance and dominance of climate change in that research. As to the course question "On which scales do climate phenomena occur and affect human experiences and social responses?" it can be seen from the following results that the scales used in this paper, can shed light on the scientific engagement to climate change which is a phenomenon that has a wide impact on society.
2. Definitions
Two scales are used in this paper: IPCC interest and scientific interest. In order to examine the scientific interest of the phenomena, we used "Google scholar" to check the number of articles published between 2003-2013; these are about ten years prior to the publishing of the IPCC report, which is the source of the second scale used in the paper. In addition, in order to obtain more reliable and accurate results, the search is done in articles that are written in English and include in their titles the names of the examined phenomena.
The second scale used is the IPCC interest. In order to find the interest of the IPCC on the phenomena, we used the last report of the IPCC which consists of three parts (they can be listed). In each part, we checked the number of times the phenomenon is mentioned by using Cntl + F searching.
the table \ref{table}. is showing the keywords used and the number of articles found on "Google scholar" and the times that the phenomenon is mentioned in different parts of the IPCC report:
The phenomena were selected from the course's database(reference), but there were several changes in the phenomena. First, "City adaptation" was replaced by "Urban Adaptation" because this is the accepted term in IPCC report and the scientific scholars. Second, an Indian monsoon was replaced by a monsoon, meaning that it includes not only the Indian monsoon but also other kinds of monsoon. It is done in order to obtain more accurate results because the term monsoon is used sometimes for Indian monsoon and sometimes for another monsoon.
As shown in the table, after the normalization, the same trend can be seen in both scales. In both scales, the order of the interest of the phenomena from high to low is similar for both sciences and IPCC interest. The high-to-low rating is the same except for the two last phenomena, "urban adaptation", and "MJO". However, in the last two phenomena, the difference is very small and is within the range of error that can result from the limitations described below. This trend is particularly surprising because, apart from El Nino which was eventually not included in the results, these were the only examined phenomena.
3. Scale Diagram
In order to examine the relationship between the two scales described above, seven phenomena were examined, six natural phenomena and one social phenomenon. Here it is important to note that the examination of natural phenomena and social phenomena by the same scale can be challenging because sometimes the phenomena have very different characteristics. Nevertheless, the selected scales can certainly examine both types of phenomena because they do not relate to the characteristics of the phenomena, but rather to the interest of the scientific community in these phenomena.
Matlab software which enables analysis of data is used in order to draw the diagram. This is because, at the stage of receiving the data, it was possible to see a certain trend that can be illustrated better by Matlab than by the course diagram generator. The fit done in the diagram shows the connection between the different phenomena. The diagram includes both linear and exponential correlations which reflect the trend that links the scientific and the IPCC interest to the phenomena. As noted, this possibility of drawing a trend is the reason of presenting it this way and not by the diagram generator that was used during the course.
The X and Y axes present the normal value of the scales obtained by using drought as a reference, which is the most commonly mentioned phenomenon in both scales. The normal values are calculated by the formula
x_i=\frac{i}{i_{max}}*100\label{equa}
X_i represents the search values of the phenomena, \frac{i} is the certain phenomena, and {i_{max}} is the phenomenon that is mentioned the most, which is the drought in both scales.
Because the two axes that examine the interest of the IPCC and the scientific interest are taken by different methods, the normalization of the values makes it possible to compare the number of times the phenomenon is mentioned in IPCC (IPCC interest) to the number of articles that include the name of the phenomenon in their titles in the years 2003-2013 (scientific interest).
In order to present the strength of the examined relationship, the deviations from the two fits are presented in figure 2. As shown in Graph 2, which represents the residuals of the two fits, a similar trend can be seen in the two scales. However, the linear fit shows larger values of residuals than the quadratic fit.
As it can be seen in the results, there is a common trend for the two scales, IPCC Interest, and scientific interest. However, the results are showing that the trend is more exponential than linear. In other words, the results of the IPCC show a greater increase in the level of interest between the phenomena than the scientific interest, All of this is compared to "drought" that is taken as a reference value in both cases. However, the order of the phenomena regarding the level of interest in the two scales, apart from the last two phenomena, is identical and follows the following order from high to low - Drought, Monsoon, Tropical cyclone, Heat wave, NAO, Urban adaptation / MJO
4. Summary and Discussion
As demonstrated in the paper and the diagram, I tried to compare two scales, the IPCC interest, and the scientific interest, and to examine seven climate-related phenomena using these scales. My assumption was that the interest of the IPCC would show a similar trend to the general scientific interest in climatic phenomena and perhaps point that the scientific interest in climatic phenomena is related to climate change. This is despite the fact that the IPCC interest described above is the different aspects of climate change and does not necessarily reflect the scientific interest. In my opinion, This is due to the growing interest in climate change in recent decades, and as a result, the scientific research also deals with this issue. The results in Graph 1 shows a common trend for both scales, IPCC Interest, and scientific interest. However, the results show a trend that is more exponential than linear. In other words, the results of the IPCC show a greater increase in the level of interest between one phenomenon to another than the scientific interest. This is compared to the drought taken as a reference value in both cases. Yet, the order of the phenomena regarding the level of interest in the two scales, except for the last two phenomena, is identical.
Although receiving the results I expected (i.e the obvious trend shown in the paper) this test also contains several limitations that may affect the results. First, in the search of the IPCC report, the different keywords were included in the entire report (i.e both the reference and the different words that contain the keyword). For example, when I searched for the number of times the term ENSO was mentioned in the report, the word "sensor" was also included in the examination. This problem is not valid for all phenomena and therefore I decided to take phenomena that do not create a large number of these duplicates. El Nino was not included in the results for this reason, but among the phenomena I examined, El Nino is the only one that was not finally included in the paper. The number of examined phenomena could also be a limitation on the reliability of the results and conclusions. This paper examined seven phenomena, including one social phenomenon. Of course, the examination of a greater number of phenomena will produce more reliable and accurate results. In addition, the examination of more social phenomena can shed light on the differences, if there are, between social and natural phenomena. The difficulty in including more social phenomena and their effect on the results was primarily due to the fact that these phenomena have different characteristics(saing somthing else before). In addition, I found it difficult to find a phenomenon that is local in size and does not include other phenomena within it.
Finally, if the results truly reflect the reality, then the paper can shed light on the understanding of scientific research topics between 2003 and 2013 and the importance and dominance of climate change in the scientific research. The similar trend of scientific and IPCC interest in the climatic phenomena can shed light on the scientific engagement to climate change, a phenomenon that has a wide impact on society, and the scientific interest Itself, which also includes many social aspects.
References