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\begin{document}

\title{Theoretical Framework}



\author[1]{igorvfprado}%
\affil[1]{Affiliation not available}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 05, 2024}


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CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS EFFECTS ON WEATHER AND CLIMATE RELATED EVENTS

Climate change is possibly one of the most serious threats the world is
facing nowadays. Scientific evidence shows unequivocally that the
climate system is warming (IPCC, 2007a). The impacts of climate change
are already beginning to be experienced and no country or region of the
world will probably stay unaffected.~

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have increased since the
pre-industrial era, driven largely fossil fuels comsumption, changes in
land use and agricultural activities (IPCC,b 2007a). The effect of the
concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been detected
throughout the climate system and are extremely likely to have been the
dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th
century~\citep{pachauri2014climate}.

~\selectlanguage{ngerman}\emph{\textbf{Global average surface temperature has increased by 0.65
°C ± 0.15°C over the past 50 years (1956- 2005) and has experienced a
quite faster rise than over the last 100 years (0.74°C ± 0.18) (see
Fig.1 (a)). This linear warming trend has globally been observed and was
more pronounced in higher northern latitudes and above land regions
(IPCC, 2007b). Sea surface temperature has in response warmed about
0.6°C since 1950 (IPCC, 2007c). Furthermore the quantity of extreme
temperatures has altered over the last 5 decades; whereas frost, cold
days and nights decreased in amount, the occurrence of heat, hot days
and nights has increased on the global scale (IPCC, 2007a).}}

\emph{\textbf{The global average sea level has raised by 0.17m ± 0.05m
over the 20th century (see Figure 1 (b)), whereby the rate of rise
accelerated in the short-term; annual rise was recently 3.1mm yr--1 ±
0.7mm yr--1 (1993-2003) compared to 1.8mm yr--1 ± 0.5mm yr--1 in period
from 1961 to 2003 (IPCC, 2007a) . Major components of this observed sea
level rise are thermal expansion of sea water in response to increased
global ocean temperatures, melting from mountain glacier and ice caps
and losses from the polar ice sheets resulting in an increased
freshwater discharge into the oceans (McMullen, 2009).}}~
\emph{\textbf{Connected to a rise in the mean sea level, sea level
extremes will very likely occur more often over the next decades.
However, it is currently not clear how storminess and associated storm
surges will develop (IPCC, 2013b).}}

\emph{\textbf{Precipitation have increased trends been observed in some
regions like in eastern parts of North America and northern Europe,
whereas in other parts of the world like the Sahel and southern Africa
precipitation amounts have decreased considerably in the long-term
(1900-2005). At the same time that the occurrence of heavy precipitation
events substantially increased over most land regions, have regional
droughts become more frequent and intense during the past 40 years.
Regional increasing and decreasing trends in the quantity of
precipitation will very likely carry on in the 21st century. Furthermore
will extreme events like heavy precipitation and heat waves probably
occur more frequently and intensively even in regions where average
precipitation is overall expected to diminish (IPCC, 2007a).}}

In European Continent,~ the average temperature has increased
continuaslly, with regionally and seasonally different rates of warming.
The greatest warming rates have been observed in Scandinavia, especially
in winter and in the Iberian Peninsula,~ during summer. Even under
average global temperature increase limited to 2°C compared to
preindustrial times, the climate in Europe is simulated to depart
significantly in the next decades from today's climate.~ Since 1950,
high-temperatures extremes have become more frequent and annual
precipitation has increased in Northern Europe and decreased in the
South.~ Extreme events are expected to increase in Europe, in
particular, heat waves, droughts, and heavy precipitation.~

Precipitation signals vary regionally and seasonally. Trends are less
clear in Continental Europe, with agreement in increase in Northern
Europe and decrease in Southern Europe (medium confidence; Kjellström et
al., 2011). Precipitation is projected to decrease in the summer months
up to southern Sweden and increase in winter (Schmidli et al., 2007),
with more rain than snow in mountainous regions (Steger et al., 2013).
In Northern Europe, a decrease of long-term mean snowpack (although
snow-rich winters will remain) toward the end of the 21st century
(Räisänen and Eklund, 2012) is projected.

Extreme sea level events are expected to increase with high confidence,
mainly dominated by global mean sea level rise. Storm surges are
expected to vary along the European coasts, with significant increase
projected in the eastern North Sea and west UK and Ireland. Increase in
extreme discharges are indicated in Finland, Denmark, Ireland, France
and Rhine, Meuse and Danube basins. Although snowmelt floods may
decrease, increased autumn and winter rainfall could lead to higher peak
discharges in Northern Europe (Kovats~\emph{et al}. , 2014).

Climate change may also affect countries by changing the variability in
sea levels through changes in storminess, in particular, changes in the
characteristics of extra-tropical cyclones. An increase in the frequency
of extra-tropical cyclones would reduce the return period of present-day
storm surge events; whereas an increase in the intensity of events could
increase the return period of weak events and reduce the return period
of intense events. Both could potentially increase the risks associated
with storm surges \citep{hallegatte2011assessing}.

Therefore, coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change.
Coastal areas are complex environments where natural and socio-economic
systems are strongly intertwined; they are home to a large and growing
proportion of the world´s population, have been centres of human
activity and accommodate a rich variety of ecosystems and habitats.
Concerning \emph{exposure} coasts are expected to be exposed to
increasing risks due to many compounding climate change factors in the
future (see 3.2). In addition potential impacts will be worsened by
already existent stresses like pollution and overfishing (World Bank,
2009) and a future increased pressure on coastal areas due to human
development patterns (intensified utilisation of the coastal zone,
coastward migration etc.) leading to an increased \emph{sensitivity}
(IPCC, 2007c) . It has furthermore to be taken into account that coastal
areas in consequence of their location are facing climate change impacts
coming from both the sea and the land.

Climate change has the potential to affect coastal areas in a number of
ways. Environmental and socio-economic impacts are above all expected
due to an accelerated sea level rise. But as well increases in sea
surface temperature, ocean acidification and changes in precipitation
and extreme events will probably exacerbate many problems coastal areas
are already facing (EPA, 2013). An increase in mean sea level in
combination with a possible increase of storm induced extreme water
levels (storm surges) will probably have more adverse effects on natural
and human systems than any single factor (Australian DCC, 2009). Extreme
events together with rises in the sea level have the potential to cause
damages on settlements, buildings and infrastructure, whereas salt water
intrusion into coastal groundwater aquifers may threaten freshwater
supplies (CCSP, 2009).

~

As the risk of extreme sea level events increases with climate change,
coastal flood risk will remain a key challenge for several European
cities, port facilities and other infrastructure. With no adaptation,
coastal flooding in the 2080s is projected to affect an additional
775,000 to 5, 5 million people per year in the EU27, affecting the
Atlantic, Northern and Southern European regions the most. Direct costs
from sea level rise without adaptation could reach \euro{}17 billion per
year by 2100, with indirect costs also estimated for land-locked
countries. Countries with high absolute damage costs include
Netherlands, Germany, France, Belgium, Denmark, Spain, and Italy.

Another potential threat coming from the land side are more frequent
river floods; higher precipitation amounts will probably entail an
increased land run-off (CCSP, 2009).

A disaster risk is defined by UNISDR's definition (2017) as `the
potential loss of life, injury, destroyed or damaged assets which could
occur to a system, society or a community in a specific period of time,
determined probabilistically as a function of hazard, exposure,
vulnerability and capacity'. Therefore, an extreme event becomes a
disaster when it has large impact on human settlements and activities.
As cities grow in size and number, growth in population density and
industrial development in areas subject to natural disasters increase
both the probability of future disasters and the potential for mass
human exposure to hazardous materials during these events. Vulnerability
to disaster increases due to environmental degradation, occupation of
flood plains, and inadequate maintenance of drainage infrastructures and
lack of planning and land management (Poljan\selectlanguage{polish}š\selectlanguage{english}ek \emph{et al.}, 2017). ~

Flooding and heavy rainfall in urban areas may lead to contamination of
water with chemicals, heavy metals or other hazardous substances
(Santato, Bender \& Schaller, 2013).Especially on coastal areas, sea
level rise is projected to increase coastal and river floods. Coastal
communities are generally highly vulnerable to climate change threats,
due to the high density of people and built infrastructure (Kovatz,
2014) and geographical limits to adaptation (J\selectlanguage{ngerman}äger et al., 2014).

Therefore, adaptation and mitigation strategies are necessary for
reducing and managing the risks of climate change. Without additional
mitigation efforts beyond those in place today, global warming will lead
to a high risk of severe, wide-spread and irreversible impacts globally.
Mitigation involves some level of co-benefits and of risks due to
adverse side effects, but these risks do not involve the same
possibility of severe, widespread and irreversible impacts as risks from
climate change, increasing the benefits from near-term mitigation
efforts.

Taking a long-term perspective, in the context of sustainable
development, increases the likelihood that more immediate adaptation
actions will also enhance future options and preparedness.

Adaptation and mitigation responses are underpinned by common enabling
factors, which include effective institutions and governance, innovation
and investments in environmentally sound technologies and
infrastructure, sustainable livelihoods and behavioral and lifestyle
choices.

Effective decision-making to limit climate change and its effects can be
informed by a wide range of analytical approaches for evaluating
expected risks and benefits, recognizing the importance of governance,
ethical dimensions, equity, value judgements, economic assessments and
diverse perceptions and responses to risk and uncertainty.

Every step taken with regards to climate policy and management should
take into account how to adapt to the adverse effects that climate
change model predictions expect to be occurring in the near and far
future. Therefore, measures looking to enhance adaptation capacities to
climate change are imperatively needed in order to guarantee future
water supply, water sanitation, environmental restoration and
conservation, and the management of extreme events~\citep*{manez2014prioritisation}. ~

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NATURE BASED SOLUTIONS

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