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\title{Criminality induces population growth~}
\author[1]{Samuel Schiess}%
\author[2]{Joschka Geissler}%
\affil[1]{SIE Master, EPFL}%
\affil[2]{EPFL}%
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\date{\today}
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\section*{Introduction}
{\label{874460}}
In the last years, humanity has crossed a major landmark with the
increasing amount of the world population. In developed countries,
\textgreater{} 70 \% live in cities or urban areas~\cite{Bettencourt2007}.
With the increasing population, the humankind will be facing new
challenges and existing problems can get worse. Not only problems of
famine, water scarcity or energy need can occur, also socially
problematic situations arise when many people live in the same
spots~\cite{Glaeser_1999}. The expectation of the population growth is
steadily increasing, mostly in developing countries. On the other hand,
in already developed countries the population increases in the urban
areas with good connections to the economic centers. In this work, we
will have a broader look at the expected population growth on a local
level and its connection to the crime rate nowadays. Connected to the
statement, that a large amount of people attract new
immigrants~\cite{Bettencourt2007} and the fact that crime should have a
negative impact on the attractiveness of a region, this combination
hides interesting insights. Our study area is formed by the city of
Vernier with its 768 hectares and 35 300 inhabitants, situated in the
Canton of Geneva and thus a part of the metropolitan area of the city of
Geneva~\cite{prsentation}.
\section*{Data}
{\label{244192}}
We use population data from STATPOP of the year 2015 which is annually~
surveyed by the Federal Statistical Office of Switzerland for the
households of the country. Also, we use crime data from the police
interventions in the area under study in the years from 2014 - 2017,
coming from the event journals of the cantonal police of Geneva.
\section*{Methods}
{\label{164027}}
{For the analysis of the region we created a grid of the region under
study with the size of 100mx100m, which results in 403 cells in the
populated area of Vernier. Our used input data~is formed by the
interventions of the police per cell and the expected percentual growth
in this cell. Unfortunately, this allows us not to directly plot the
dependency~of those two variables and to calculate a regression, as the
interventions are a discrete value. First, we need to assort the mean of
the growth rate to their number of interventions, which leaves us with
one mean growth rate per x interventions. In other words, the result
includes the mean of the expected percentual growth in the cells with x
interventions.~}
{As the computation and analysis of the interventions data and the
number of foreigners already was processed in the former paper
of~\cite{geissler2017}, we were able to use the same algorithm for the
representation of the police interventions.}
\section*{\texorpdfstring{{Results}}{Results}}
{\label{612329}}
The following chart shows the mean of the expected population growth
until 2040 in percent, plotted over the number of police interventions
in those regions. Also, two maps are displayed, that show a simple
representation of the number of interventions and the expected growth
rate.\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[h!]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=1.00\columnwidth]{figures/All-in-one/All-in-one}
\caption{{The diagram above shows the regression between the mean of the expected
growth rate and the number of police interventions. The two maps below
show on the left the mean of the expected population growth and on the
right the number of police interventions out of social reasons.~
{\label{642323}}%
}}
\end{center}
\end{figure}
When averaging the growth rates sorted to the interventions in their
region, a variance of 0.179 was computed and we have therefore a
standard deviation of 0.398 \% for the expected population growth rate
overall. The regression has a R\textsuperscript{2} of 0.568 and a slope
of 0.187.
\section*{Discussion}
{\label{682804}}
The correlation between the two parameters expected population growth
and police interventions nowadays is significant. Still, the
R\textsuperscript{2} is not that high and no clear correlation can be
clearly stated. Also, the residuals of the only seven parameters are
rather high. If we compare the visual trends in the two maps, it is
obvious, that the areas with a high population growth had generally more
police interventions in the last years in their neighborhood. This
underlines our hypothesis as not entirely false, but to be further
investigated with more data.~~
Certainly, an enhanced attractivity according to high criminality is not
only couterintuitive, but also unrealistic. Therefore, the existing
connection, also if not very clear, has to be explained with other
properties of the two parameters. The link could be found in the
populated areas, that build a structural source for economic centers and
jobs. This is attracting more people to live in the area, but also
attracts effects like poverty, homeless people, drug consume and
crime~\cite{Glaeser_1999}. Following to those effects, regions with a
higher crime rate are at the same time an attractive place for new
people, as they have an existing infrastructure and act as economic
centers.
Thus, an indirect connection between population growth and police
interventions can be found according to those analysis. It needs to be
pointed out, that we operate on a local scale in one municipality and we
can therefore not generalize the results.
In further investigations, the results could be compared to the general
rise of the immigrant rate in Switzerland. With more information about
the expected development of metropolitan areas and their distribution of
criminality, more detailed statements could be drawn. Also the research
of more secondary literature on this topic could be interesting, while
it still not that easy to find.~~
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