Introduction
In the last years, humanity has crossed a major landmark with the increasing amount of the world population. In developed countries, > 70 % live in cities or urban areas \cite{Bettencourt2007}. With the increasing population, the humankind will be facing new challenges and existing problems can get worse. Not only problems of famine, water scarcity or energy need can occur, also socially problematic situations arise when many people live in the same spots \cite{Glaeser_1999}. The expectation of the population growth is steadily increasing, mostly in developing countries. On the other hand, in already developed countries the population increases in the urban areas with good connections to the economic centers. In this work, we will have a broader look at the expected population growth on a local level and its connection to the crime rate nowadays. Connected to the statement, that a large amount of people attract new immigrants \cite{Bettencourt2007} and the fact that crime should have a negative impact on the attractiveness of a region, this combination hides interesting insights. Our study area is formed by the city of Vernier with its 768 hectares and 35 300 inhabitants, situated in the Canton of Geneva and thus a part of the metropolitan area of the city of Geneva \cite{prsentation}.
Data
We use population data from STATPOP of the year 2015 which is annually surveyed by the Federal Statistical Office of Switzerland for the households of the country. Also, we use crime data from the police interventions in the area under study in the years from 2014 - 2017, coming from the event journals of the cantonal police of Geneva.
Methods
For the analysis of the region we created a grid of the region under study with the size of 100mx100m, which results in 403 cells in the populated area of Vernier. Our used input data is formed by the interventions of the police per cell and the expected percentual growth in this cell. Unfortunately, this allows us not to directly plot the dependency of those two variables and to calculate a regression, as the interventions are a discrete value. First, we need to assort the mean of the growth rate to their number of interventions, which leaves us with one mean growth rate per x interventions. In other words, the result includes the mean of the expected percentual growth in the cells with x interventions.
As the computation and analysis of the interventions data and the number of foreigners already was processed in the former paper of \cite{geissler2017}, we were able to use the same algorithm for the representation of the police interventions.
Results
The following chart shows the mean of the expected population growth until 2040 in percent, plotted over the number of police interventions in those regions. Also, two maps are displayed, that show a simple representation of the number of interventions and the expected growth rate.