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\begin{document}

\title{Projections of Cold Air Outbreaks from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in
CMIP6 Earth System Models}



\author[1]{Erik T Smith}%
\author[2]{Scott C Sheridan}%
\affil[1]{Kent State University}%
\affil[2]{Kent State}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 19, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Historical and future simulated temperature data from five climate
models in the Coupled Model Intercomparing Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are
used to understand how climate change might alter cold air outbreaks
(CAOs) in the future. Three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
(SSPs), SSP 1 -- 2.6, SSP 2 -- 4.5, and SSP 5 -- 8.5 are examined to
identify potential fluctuations in CAOs across the globe between 2015
and 2054. Though CAOs may remain persistent or even increase in some
regions through 2040, all five climate models show CAOs disappearing by
2054. Climate models were able to accurately simulate the spatial
distribution and trends of historical CAOs, but there were large errors
in the simulated interannual frequency of CAOs in the North Atlantic and
North Pacific. Fluctuations in complex processes, such as Atlantic
Meridional Overturning Circulation, may be contributing to each model's
inability to simulate historical CAOs in these regions.%
\end{abstract}%



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