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\begin{document}

\title{Nilgiri pipit species distribution model outline~~~~}



\author[1]{Abhimanyu Lele}%
\affil[1]{University of Chicago}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 03, 2024}


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\subsection*{1.0 Introduction}

{\label{330621}}

\begin{quote}
1.1 Background; lot of range restricted species in the WG, conservation
requires precise threat estimate. Species ranges are often
overestimated, and threat underestimated.~

1.2 Nilgiri pipit is poorly studied, previous studies had limited
geographic extent or were based on opportunistic sampling. Some previous
work based on citizen science, but species very difficult to identify
properly.~

1.3 NP range estimates vary widely. IUCN says between 1000m and 2300m.
Robin et al. 2014 says 441 km\textsuperscript{2~}for AOO. Ramesh says
1392 km\textsuperscript{2~}for AOO. IUCN estimate is 53,000 for EOO.
Ramesh's uplisting assessment contested because of methodological
problems.~

1.4 NP facing threat from invasives (Lele et al in press) and its
habitat is shrinking rapidly (Arasumani et al in press) therefore a need
to accurately assess and conserve species.~
\end{quote}

\subsection*{2.0 Materials and methods}

{\label{453703}}

\begin{quote}
2.1 GIS methods

\begin{quote}
2.1.1 Sentinel 3 imageries etc.

2.1.2 Hybrid classification

2.1.3 Also made some use of previous LANDSAT data (Arasumani et al in
press)
\end{quote}

2.2 Survey methods

\begin{quote}
2.2.1 Systematic surveys in some area, detailed Lele et al (in press)

2.2.2 Opportunistic surveys en route to systematic surveys, including
outside grasslands

2.2.3 Further opportunistic surveys outside two large sky islands:
details of effort, including outside grasslands

2.2.4 Pipit photographed etc for verification, all observations by
experts, etc etc
\end{quote}

2.3 SDM Methods

\begin{quote}
2.3.1 GIS data from sentinel 3 above

2.3.2 Climate data from Chelsea

2.3.3 Niche modelling using Maxent~

2.3.4 (More detail as needed).~

2.3.5 Model averaging of best models

2.3.6 Model output clipped to grassland layer (justification: pipit not
found outside, + area is likely to be overestimated because grasslands
highly fragmented, many cells with partial grassland.~
\end{quote}
\end{quote}

\subsection*{3.0 Results~}

{\label{524181}}

\begin{quote}
3.1 List of models, table with support.~

3.2 Prose description of best models with the variables that were
included.~

3.3 Figure of model averaged area, + clipped area

3.4 Total model averaged area was X

3.5 Prose description: large area in Mukuthi and Eravikulam grasshills,
fragmented patches throughout southern Anamalais/Palani hills, tiny
presences in Meghamalai and Agasthyamalai, probably can be ignored.~
\end{quote}

\subsection*{4.0 Discussion~}

{\label{373951}}

\begin{quote}
4.1 NP range substantially different from IUCN model; goes up to highest
elevation, begins only at X. Also much smaller; no presence in most
areas shown.~

4.2 NP endangered under criterion B2.

\begin{quote}
4.2.1 AOO less than 500 (B2: because pipits outside grasslands are
incidental/outliers/not their actual habitat)~

4.2.2 Less than five locations (B2a: because of threat from wattle,
entire Anamalai-Palani hills complex is a single location, so only 3/4
locations altogether)~

4.2.3 Continuing decline in extent of habitat (B2biii: because habitat
is shrinking per Arasu + degrading per occupancy paper).~
\end{quote}

4.3 Other species with similarly disjointed distribution and fragmented
habitat may also have underestimated threat levels; need reevaluation.~

\par\null
\end{quote}

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