and turnover patterns across regions. Our findings of range change may serve to assist but not determine nature conservation policy (Thuiller et al. 2008; Araujo et al. 2011; Bellardet al. 2012; Trivino et al. 2013). From a sustainable forest management viewpoint, a number of Chinese trees will be threatened given future climate change. Generally, both mitigation and adaptation strategies can help Chinese trees enhance their ability to cope with climate change (Duguma et al. 2014; Chia et al.2016; Locatelli et al. 2016). To mitigate atmospheric CO2 concentration, even under the lowest emission scenario considered (RCP2.6), the risks of species loss and turnover appear to be considerable. To enhance the migration ability of tree species (introduction or ex situ conservation), the risks of species loss and turnover also appear to be considerable. Notably, even under most conservative CO2 emission path and the most conservative migration scenario, 18% of tree species will be endangered or more seriously threatened. This 18% proportion of threated trees is consistent with Thomas’s prediction that 18% of the world’s species will become extinct under the minimal climate warming scenarios by 2050 using a novel species–area relationship method (Thomas et al.2004). These species may need to be preserved in botanical gardens or microhabitats in China. Given the many species to be gained in the Western Qing-Tibet Plateau and to be loss in western arid and eastern monsoon regions, we suggest that a large number of nature reserves should be established on the Qing-Tibet Plateau and forest structure should be adjusted in the western arid region and eastern monsoon region. We recommend further study of tree adaptation strategies to climate change to ensure the sustainable development of China’s forests.