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\begin{document}

\title{Sustainable Development and Risk Management in Road Construction
Industry in Nigeria}



\author[1]{Adegboyega Odumade}%
\author[2]{Mercy Urokor}%
\author[3]{Kelechi Onyekweredike}%
\affil[1]{Alex Ekwueme Federal University, Ndufu Alike}%
\affil[2]{University of Nigeria}%
\affil[3]{Alex Ekwueme Federal University}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 08, 2024}


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\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{abstract}
Civil Engineering projects which include road construction pose a
significant amount of risk due to the several activities involved, its
coverage over a wide expanse of land and threat from underground
conditions. Risk is defined as the chance of something happening that
will have an impact on objectives, and this can be either positive or
negative. Risk in road construction stem from the conception till usage
and has significant effect on any one of the aspects of a project namely
cost, quality, time or scope of the project. In addition, sources of
risk can be in terms of payment, security deposit and retention, time of
commencement and completion, variation, delay and cost of delay and
liquidated damages. Size can be one of the major causes of risk; so can
changes in political or commercial planning. Early understanding of the
risks involved in a project will help project managers to reduce its
impacts and complete the project in a sustainable and more efficient
manner. This can be achieved through proper Risk Management. Risk
Management entails identification, analysis and application of methods
to reduce the identified risk. This study focuses on sustainable risk
management for road construction projects, taking South east
geopolitical zone of Nigeria as case study. The method involved primary
data collection using questionnaire survey and data analysis using
statistical models. This study establishes that program evaluation
review technique is the most effective risk management practice in
Nigeria and conforms to sustainable development practices in addition to
analytical hierarchy and probability impact methods. The study would
help project managers understand anticipated risks in road projects,
better estimate risks prior to the commencement of any project and
allows them to develop proper mitigation measures at an early stage of a
project.%
\end{abstract}%



\sloppy


\textbf{1.0 INTRODUCTION}

Risk is a function of the probability of an event occurring and the
degree of damage that would result should it happen (EPA, 1996). Risk is
defined as ``the chance of something happening that will have an impact
on objectives'', meaning, risk can be either positive or negative.
(Australia Social Economic and Environmental Handbook for Risk
Assessment and Management, 2008). A common approach is to define risk as
the combination of the probability (or likelihood) and consequence of an
event (or outcome or result of exposure). This gives rise to the widely
used concept of risk: \emph{Risk = Probability x Consequence.}

All human endeavours involve risk. The success or failure of any venture
depends on how managers deal with it. Construction industry is no
exception (Thompson and Perry, 1992). The construction industry is
considered to be subject to more risk than other industries. This is as
a result of the complex and time-consuming process of design and
construction as well as the great effort to coordinate multitudes of
human resources, from different establishments, with different skills,
objectives and interests (Othman, 2008). In addition, sources of risk
can be in terms of payment, security deposit and retention, time of
commencement and completion, variation, delay and cost of delay and
liquidated damages. Size can be one of the major causes of risk; so can
changes in political or commercial planning.

Risk management is not a singular process but a complex mix of multiple
views, values, perceptions and qualitative or quantitative approaches.
This means that sound risk management must involve components of
stakeholder engagement, two-way communication and responsiveness. Risk
management is one of the most vital procedures and capable way in coping
with project risks and uncertainties. In order to rescue the poor
reputation of construction industry in project performance, the right
implementation of risk management is essential. With the implementation
of risk management, the common problem in construction projects such as
delay in project delivery, over - budget, unsatisfactory product
quality, unsafe working environment etc. can be eliminated. Therefore,
it could be argued that risk management is important especially during
the decision making process with regard to risks (Lee Chun and Azlan,
2012).

Risk management is a core element of sustainable development.
Sustainable development is normally assessed by reference to parallel
progress in its ``three pillars'' - economic growth, human development
and environmental protection. These three pillars of
sustainability---social, economic and environmental---present various
risks and thereby provide a complex and often inter-related mix of risks
and opportunities that construction companies need to address. The
challenge of sustainable development presents a variety of risks (and
opportunities) for the construction industry. These need to be
considered in light of social, environmental and economic risks to all
stakeholders affected by construction---local communities, investors and
shareholders, governments, indigenous groups, construction companies and
so on. These pillars of sustainability are pivotal in understanding
risks and the inter-relationships between them. Hence, this study has
the following objectives:

\begin{enumerate}
\tightlist
\item
  Identify specific risk in road construction in Nigeria.
\item
  Highlight and evaluate the effectiveness of different risk management
  practices available in the construction industry in Nigeria.
\item
  Determine the most suitable method of handling road construction risk
  in Nigeria, for sustainable road delivery and management.
\item
  Determine the extent which risk management in road construction
  business in Nigeria conform to the concept of sustainable development.
\end{enumerate}

\textbf{2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW}

``No construction project is risk free. Risk can be managed, minimized,
shared, transferred or accepted. It cannot be ignored'' (Latham 1994).
Moreover, the construction industry is exposed to more risk and
uncertainty than perhaps any other industry sector (Flanagan and Norman
1993). It involves numerous stakeholders, long production durations and
an open production system, entailing significant interaction between
internal and external environments. Such organizational and
technological complexity generates enormous risks (Zou et al. 2007).

Chapman and Cooper (1983) outlined one of the earliest attempts to
consider the need for structuring project risks and systematic approach,
which integrates different tools and techniques, including PERT,
decision trees and probability distributions. In a subsequent paper,
Cooper et al. (1985), they present a method for analyzing project cost
risk: risks being structured as `risk breakdown structures' (RBS) where
the top of the hierarchy represents project cost risk. Risk is modelled
as a variation distribution of base estimate of cost. Kangari and Riggs
(1989) illustrate the use of Fuzzy Sets Theory (FST) as a risk
assessment tool; the earliest attempt to use FST to handle subjectivity
issues in construction risk assessment.

Pioneering its application in construction, Mustafa and Al-Bahar (1991)
adopt the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to assess construction
project risk. Becoming one of the most cited papers in the literature;
it applied the concept of value and weight to assess risk probability
and impact. The paper also evaluates the suitability of using AHP to
assess construction project risk, delineating its limitations for such
applications. Likewise, Dey et al. (1994) present a risk assessment
methodology, based on AHP, which combined objective and subjective
assessments; risk was also modelled as Probability-Impact (P-I). Riggs
et al. (1994) propose an approach for quantifying and integrating
technical, cost, and schedule risks as utility functions. AHP was used
to assign probabilities to a decision tree: the option with the maximum
utility was to be chosen. The proposed model, however, could not be used
to assess risk; it could only be used to assess the utilities of
different `risk scenarios'. AHP was also used by Zhi (1995) to assess
the risk levels of overseas construction projects; the P-I model was
adopted and AHP deployed with minor modification. The impact assessments
fell within 0-1 instead of the AHP's formal 1-9 ordinal scale.

A stochastic model, which combines the randomness of the cost and the
duration of a project activity, was developed by Tavares et al. (1998).
Project risk was modelled as the probability of not meeting project
objectives, i.e. duration and cost; however, no other objectives were
considered. Mulholland and Christian (1999) use the PERT technique to
develop a distribution of project duration. The variance of the duration
distribution of a project is used to measure schedule risk: the larger
the variance, the greater the risk associated with project duration.

Akintoye and Macleod (1997) and Raftery (1994) identified the current
usage or risk management techniques in the construction industry. These
include: risk premium, risk adjusted discount rate, subjective
probability, decision analysis, sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo
simulation, stochastic dominance, Casper and Intuition. However, in a
study conducted by Odeyinka (1987), it was found that one of the major
methods of managing construction risk in the Nigerian Construction
industry is through transfer to insurance companies.

In Odeyinka (2000) study which examined the sources of insurable
construction risks perceived to be encountered in the Nigerian
Construction Industry and the types of insurance policy employed in
managing them. The study shows that, out of a myriad of insurable risks,
great importance is placed on site security, construction risks, and
health and welfare requirements. The Nigerian construction industry has
various types of insurance policy available.

According to Sage (2009), sustainable development refers to the
fulfilment of human needs through simultaneous socio-economic and
technological progress and conservation of the earth's natural systems.
Sustainable world progress is dependent upon continued economic, social,
cultural, and technological progress. To achieve this, careful attention
must also be paid to preservation of the earth's natural resources.
Sustainable development is a term generally associated with the
achievement of increased techno-economic growth coupled with
preservation of the natural capital that is comprised of environmental
and natural resources. It requires the development of enlightened
institutions and infrastructure and appropriate management of risks,
uncertainties, and information and knowledge imperfections to assure
intergenerational equity, intra-generational equity, and conservation of
the ability of earth's natural systems to serve humankind (Sage, 2009).

\textbf{3.0 MATERIALS AND METHODS}

The study was carried out in the south east geopolitical zone of
Nigeria. The sample of the study comprised of staff and adhoc staff of
the construction companies chosen using the random sampling method. The
instrument used in the collection of data is a researcher developed
questionnaire. It consist of two sections: the first section contains
information on the demographic data of the respondents while the second
section contains questions arranged in four clusters: A, B, C and D
which is based on a five point scale rating of Very Great Extent (VGE),
Great Extent (GE), Some Extent (SE), Little Extent (LE), No Extent (NE)
scored 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 respectively.

Cluster A sought answers to the specific risks in road construction in
Nigeria. Cluster B provided answers to effectiveness of risk management
practices available in construction industries. Cluster C sought answers
to the most suitable method of handling risk in Nigeria while Cluster D
provided answers to the extent which risk management in road
construction business in Nigeria conform to the concept of sustainable
development.

The data was administered to the respondents and collected from them by
the researcher and 5 research assistants with whom the researcher had a
day training so as to ensure that the questionnaires were distributed
and collected within two weeks with minimal errors.

The research questions was analysed using mean (x) and standard
deviation (SD) while t-test statistics was used to test the formulated
hypotheses at 0.05 level of significance.

\textbf{4.0 RESULTS}

The questionnaires were analyzed using SPSS 17.0 software. The results
obtained have been summarized in the table below. For the purposes of
analyzing the results, values of 3.0 and above have been chosen to show
to a large extent while values below 3.0 will imply a low extent.

\textbf{Cluster A: To what extent are the following risks in
construction business in Nigeria?}

\textbf{Table 1: Response to Cluster A}\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{longtable}[]{@{}lllll@{}}
\toprule
\textbf{S/No} & \textbf{Item} & \textbf{X} & \textbf{Rank} &
\textbf{Decision}\tabularnewline
\midrule
\endhead
1 & Environmental Impact & 4.04 & \textbf{1\textsuperscript{st}} & Large
Extent\tabularnewline
2 & Waste Generation & 3.44 & \textbf{5\textsuperscript{th}} & Large
Extent\tabularnewline
3 & Negative Impact on Ecosystem & 3.38 & \textbf{6\textsuperscript{th}}
& Large Extent\tabularnewline
4 & Material Recycling & 3.33 & \textbf{7\textsuperscript{th}} & Large
Extent\tabularnewline
5 & Pollution Control & 3.46 & \textbf{4\textsuperscript{th}} & Large
Extent\tabularnewline
6 & Design & 3.71 & \textbf{2\textsuperscript{nd}} & Large
Extent\tabularnewline
7 & Sustainable Construction & 3.62 & \textbf{3\textsuperscript{rd}} &
Large Extent\tabularnewline
\bottomrule
\end{longtable}

Table 1 shows the response of respondents on severity of selected risks
in the construction business. The result presented has Delayed Payment
Challenge, Financial Risk and Design risk coming 1\textsuperscript{st},
2\textsuperscript{nd} and 3\textsuperscript{rd} respectively as major
risks in road construction business.

It is important to note that some other researchers have done similar
work on this in different countries and have also found delayed payment
challenge or financial challenge ranking first among other risks
associated with construction business in Nigeria. For instance,
Alaghbari \emph{et al} , (2007) examined the factors that cause delay in
construction projects in Malaysia and found financial factors to be the
most common cause of delays. Again, Sambasivan and Soon (2007) concludes
that Clients finance is an important of delay and risk in construction
industries in Malaysia. Other risks identified by Sambasivan and Soon
(2007) include: Design changes, shortage in materials, labor shortages,
equipment availability and failure, contractor's poor site management
and inexperience, problems with subcontractors and equipment
availability and failure.

Furthermore, Koushki et al (2005) found major risks in Kuwait to
include: Owner's financial constraints and changing designs. These
findings show similarity with what is obtainable in the south east
geopolitical zone of Nigeria which also may not differ across Nigeria.
Going by the already set values for this study, it is important to note
that all factors outlined in table 1 (excluding volcanic eruption and
landslides which fall below 3.0) were accepted by respondents as risks
affecting construction business in Nigeria. The study area is not known
to experience volcanic eruptions and landslides and hence it is not
surprising why it is not seen as risks by the respondents.

\textbf{Cluster B: To what extent are the following risk management
practices in construction industries in Nigeria effective?}

\textbf{Table 2: Response to Cluster B}\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{longtable}[]{@{}lllll@{}}
\toprule
\textbf{S/No} & \textbf{Item} & \textbf{X} & \textbf{Rank} &
\textbf{Decision}\tabularnewline
\midrule
\endhead
1 & Environmental Impact & 4.04 & \textbf{1\textsuperscript{st}} & Large
Extent\tabularnewline
2 & Waste Generation & 3.44 & \textbf{5\textsuperscript{th}} & Large
Extent\tabularnewline
3 & Negative Impact on Ecosystem & 3.38 & \textbf{6\textsuperscript{th}}
& Large Extent\tabularnewline
4 & Material Recycling & 3.33 & \textbf{7\textsuperscript{th}} & Large
Extent\tabularnewline
5 & Pollution Control & 3.46 & \textbf{4\textsuperscript{th}} & Large
Extent\tabularnewline
6 & Design & 3.71 & \textbf{2\textsuperscript{nd}} & Large
Extent\tabularnewline
7 & Sustainable Construction & 3.62 & \textbf{3\textsuperscript{rd}} &
Large Extent\tabularnewline
\bottomrule
\end{longtable}

Table 2 shows the levels of agreement of respondents on the
effectiveness of the itemized risk management practices in Construction
industries in Nigeria. From the result, Program Evaluation Review
Technique can be seen to be most effective, followed by Probability
Impact Method and Analytical Hierarchy Process. It can also be seen that
Transfer to Insurance Companies is the least effective in Nigeria and
ineffective by the set values of this study.

\textbf{Cluster C: To what extent is Insurance business the most
suitable method of handling road construction risks in Nigeria?}

\textbf{Table 3: Response to Cluster C}\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{longtable}[]{@{}lllll@{}}
\toprule
\textbf{S/No} & \textbf{Item} & \textbf{X} & \textbf{Rank} &
\textbf{Decision}\tabularnewline
\midrule
\endhead
1 & Environmental Impact & 4.04 & \textbf{1\textsuperscript{st}} & Large
Extent\tabularnewline
2 & Waste Generation & 3.44 & \textbf{5\textsuperscript{th}} & Large
Extent\tabularnewline
3 & Negative Impact on Ecosystem & 3.38 & \textbf{6\textsuperscript{th}}
& Large Extent\tabularnewline
4 & Material Recycling & 3.33 & \textbf{7\textsuperscript{th}} & Large
Extent\tabularnewline
5 & Pollution Control & 3.46 & \textbf{4\textsuperscript{th}} & Large
Extent\tabularnewline
6 & Design & 3.71 & \textbf{2\textsuperscript{nd}} & Large
Extent\tabularnewline
7 & Sustainable Construction & 3.62 & \textbf{3\textsuperscript{rd}} &
Large Extent\tabularnewline
\bottomrule
\end{longtable}

Table 3 shows respondents' level of agreement on the extent transfer of
risks to insurance businesses, is the most suitable method for handling
road construction risks in Nigeria. As observed, it is currently
ineffective. While it is generally accepted that risk transfer is the
most can be a cost effective way of managing risks (Surminski and
Oramas-Dorta, 2014), it is not without its demerits which makes it
ineffective in some countries. Arooz \& Halwatura (2015) observed that
even though insurance is one method used in Sri Lankan construction
industry to manage risks; but sometimes insurance claims are disclaimed
and payments denied by insurers as a result of technical exclusions
existing within the policy or simply because policy claim conditions and
procedures have not been strictly followed by the insured contractor.
This is no different from the typical Nigerian system where insured
parties are denied claims for reasons similar to the findings of Arooz
\& Halwatura (2015).

\textbf{Cluster D: To what extent do risk management practices in road
construction conform to the concept of sustainable development?}

\textbf{Table 4: Response to Cluster D}\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{longtable}[]{@{}lllll@{}}
\toprule
\textbf{S/No} & \textbf{Item} & \textbf{X} & \textbf{Rank} &
\textbf{Decision}\tabularnewline
\midrule
\endhead
1 & Environmental Impact & 4.04 & \textbf{1\textsuperscript{st}} & Large
Extent\tabularnewline
2 & Waste Generation & 3.44 & \textbf{5\textsuperscript{th}} & Large
Extent\tabularnewline
3 & Negative Impact on Ecosystem & 3.38 & \textbf{6\textsuperscript{th}}
& Large Extent\tabularnewline
4 & Material Recycling & 3.33 & \textbf{7\textsuperscript{th}} & Large
Extent\tabularnewline
5 & Pollution Control & 3.46 & \textbf{4\textsuperscript{th}} & Large
Extent\tabularnewline
6 & Design & 3.71 & \textbf{2\textsuperscript{nd}} & Large
Extent\tabularnewline
7 & Sustainable Construction & 3.62 & \textbf{3\textsuperscript{rd}} &
Large Extent\tabularnewline
\bottomrule
\end{longtable}

Table 4 shows respondents' agreement on the extent itemized risk
management practices conform to the concept of sustainable development.
It is generally accepted that they all conform to the concept of
sustainable development to a large extent.

\textbf{5.0 CONCLUSION}

This study has painstakingly investigated risk management practices and
its sustainability in construction industries in south east geopolitical
zone of Nigeria. It therefore finds the following:

\begin{enumerate}
\tightlist
\item
  Delayed payment challenge, financial risk, design risk, security risk,
  equipment productivity risk, kidnapping, community unrest, material
  supply challenges, and flood are all risks in construction industries
  in south east geopolitical zone of Nigeria.
\item
  Flood and volcanic eruptions are not risks in the construction
  industry in the study area.
\item
  Program Evaluation Review Technique is the most effective risk
  management practice in Nigeria.
\item
  Transfer of risks to Insurance businesses is ineffective in Nigeria
  currently.
\item
  Program Evaluation Review Technique, Analytical Hierarchy and
  Probability Impact Methods of risk management conform to sustainable
  development practices and hence they are recommended for use in
  management of risk in Nigeria.
\end{enumerate}

\textbf{6.0 REFERENCES}

\begin{quote}
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\end{quote}

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