4. Discussion
The results of the MNL model suggest that twelve variables for AFS and five variables for ACS had significant effects on the adoption decision with respect to CAS. The effects of three variables namely education, age, and origin are statistically insignificant. The negative sign of age of household head suggests that young farmers are more likely to adopt agroforestry systems compared to their elderly neighbours. In other words, the likelihood of adopting an agroforestry system decreases with the increasing age of farmers. This may be because elderly people are more risk-averse compared to the young people; and, therefore, the former expects immediate returns, which is not possible from the tree-based practices (Adesina et al., 2000). Similarly, education (years of schooling) of farmers have a positive association with the adoption of both AFS and ACS. This is because education may contribute to understand better and adopt a new technology (Adesina and Chianu, 2002).
Twelve variables have significant effects in the case of AFS adoption. The sign and p value of the variable ‘sex of household head’ suggests that male farmers prefer AFS practice compared to their female counterparts. The existing literature also shows that gender differences playing a role in adopting new practices. For example, in studies carried out in Cameroon and Nigeria, it was found that male farmers were more likely to use alley farming than women (Adesina et al., 2000; Adesina and Chianu, 2002; Fabiyi et al., 1991). In Nepalese mid-hills also, a positive association between male-headed households and the adoption of agroforestry practice was found (Neupane et al., 2002). The sign of the coefficient of the variable ‘household size’ (economically active) indicates that the likelihood of adopting AFS decreases with the increased household size. In other words, the chance of adopting agroforestry is higher when the household size is relatively low. This holds true because tree-based farming is a less labour-intensive practice in the long-run (Cockfield, 2005), but other agriculture practices are labour demanding for smallholders (Rai et al., 2018). A recent study by Cedamon et al. (2018) from Nepal’s mid-hills also reinforces our findings. They argue that the emerging remittance economy of the country has increased the outmigration of Nepalese youths resulting in a short supply of labour force, which made the Nepalese farmers practice less labour-intensive cultivation practice such as agroforestry.
The results show that landholding size was the most influencing factor to determine the adoption of agroforestry. The likelihood of shifting from CAS to agro-forestry practices increases with the size of landholdings. This may be because large holding farmers may prefer to increase their investments in new land management practices such as agroforestry since they can take risks and wait for the returns (Amsalu and De Graaff, 2007). Besides, large holdings can be translated as an opportunity to new practices (Nowak, 1987). Having a private source of irrigation is positively associated with the farmers’ decision of AFS adoption over conventional agriculture. A similar result was found in a study carried out in Himachal, India by Sood and Mitchell (2009) and in Burkina Faso by Ayuk (1997).
The results also suggest that off-farm-based households are likely to adopt the tree-based farming system such as AFS compared to their neighbours with farm-based livelihoods. The reason may be that the off-farm income helps farmers take a risk as it may serve as a safety net in case of crop failure resulting from sudden natural calamities and other unexpected events. Adopting a tree-based farming practice, therefore, may not be an attractive option to those families who require immediate returns, as farmers have to wait a long time to harvest trees. Until the tree crop harvest, farmers have to take a considerable loss in agriculture production from the time of establishment, which a subsistence farmer can hardly be able to cover the loss. Similar results were found in the Gunnungkidul region, Indonesia that the households with off-farm income sources are in a tree raising practice than those with farm-based households (Sabastian et al., 2014).
Similarly, ‘livestock herd size’ was found to positively influence a farmer’s decision about adopting the tree-based farming system. It suggests that an increase in livestock herd size results in the increased likelihood of adopting AFS. In Nepal, trees are grown in the farmland for fodder, fuelwood and timber. Fodder is a good source of livestock feed in the study area. Trees provide green fodder during the dry season of the year, which is very important for the milking livestock to maintain milk production throughout the year. Table 2 reports that the tree densities and livestock herd size of the farming systems are statistically different. AFS farmers raised a higher number of trees and larger livestock herd compared to the ACS farmers. In the mid-hills of Nepal, the number of livestock was the most significant determinant of agroforestry adoption (Neupane et al., 2002).
Extension service has also positive impacts on adopting tree-based farming systems. The AFS adoption rate increases with the number of extension services. In general, extension workers provide information to farmers and help to clarify the doubts that the farmers may have. They motivate farmers and increase their confidence to adopt to new practices. This finding corroborates the existing literature (Adesina and Chianu, 2002; Ison and Russell, 2007; Lohr and Park, 1994; Paudel and Thapa, 2004).
In addition, the proximity to the government-managed forests also determines the adoption of tree-based practices. The results indicate the likelihood of adopting tree-based farming systems increases with the distance to forests. When farmers easily get their daily needs of fuelwood, fodder, timber and food fulfilled from the nearby forest, they are reluctant to tree planting on their farmland (Rai et al., 2017). On the contrary, the distant farmers have to spend more time in the collection of these products from the forest and therefore they are inclined to tree planting on their farms.