The dynamic occupancy model estimates a Black Harrier mean adult survival of \(0.694\pm0.038\), a mean fledgling survival of \(0.491\pm0.071\) and a mean fertility of \(0.820\pm0.097\) (table \ref{tbl:post_param}). These life history parameters translate in a mean population rate of decline of \(0.977\pm0.009\). The model also estimates an initial \(0.923\pm0.061\) Black Harriers per pentad on average, which considering that the species as been detected in \(1070\) pentads between 2008-2019, corresponds to a total of \(987\pm65\) Black Harriers in the population back in 2008.
The elasticity analysis shows that changes in adult survival have greater impact on population changes (elasticity = \(0.555\pm0.046\)) than fertility (elasticity = \(0.222\pm0.023\)) or chick survival (elasticity = \(0.222\pm0.023\)) (see figure \ref{642524}).