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We estimated adult Black Harrier annual survival probability to be \(0.692\pm0.152\) (SE) from the survival analysis of \citet{Garcia_Heras_2019} GPS tracking data. In other to make 

Using \citet{Collingham_2014} model for Southern African birds adult survival we obtained slightly lower estimates of 0.64 (using female body mass) and 0.65 (using male body mass). For both these estimates we used a mean clutch size of 3.58 \citep{Garcia_Heras_2016}. We settled on the average of the highest and lowest values of annual survival probability of 0.67. Then, we set the prior distribution for survival probability so that it covered a reasonable range of between what and what? see figure.

The parameters used for the simulation of population dynamics are presented in a table.

Considering the baseline scenario, (i.e. no birds killed by wind farms, a natural annual decline of 1% and adult survival set at 0.73, Black Harrier populations are expected to survive over 500 years (Figure ......). Population trajectories  change rapidly from this natural mortality scenario when fatalities at South African wind farms increase to five adults per year. At such rates population extinction would be expected in just over 100 years (figure \ref{459965}).