To investigate the behaviour of Black Harrier population trajectories under different scenarios we ran 1000 Monte Carlo simulations of 100-year-long population trajectories, sampling life history parameters from the posterior distribution the dynamic occupancy model. Since fecundity depends on rainfall, for the simulations we used the fecundity value that corresponds to the average rainfall observed in the studied period \(\bar{\rho}\). The transition matrix that incorporates average fecundity is denoted by \(\bar{\mathbf{A}}\) . Therefore,