Posterior predictive distribution of the mean probability of observing at least one Black Harrier in a pentad between 2008 and 2019. The violin plots show the distribution of values predicted from the posterior distribution of the dynamic occupancy model and the black points with error bars represent the mean + 1 SD of these predicted values. The red diamonds connected by the dashed red line represent the actual observed reporting rates. The blue points connected by dotted line represent accumulated rainfall (units). While the model captures the general pattern observed in the data, it fails to explain the large spike around 2014.