Findings
By the 19th April 2020 the infection R has fallen over the from 2.8 on 23rd March before the lockdown and has stabilised at about 0.8 sufficient for suppression. However there remain significant variations between England regions.
Regression analysis across UTLAs found that the only factor relating to reduction in ADIR was the historic number of confirmed number infection/000 population, There is however wide variation between Upper Tier Local Authorities (UTLA) areas. Extrapolation of these results showed that unreported community infection may be >200 times higher than reported cases, providing evidence that by the end of the second week in April, 29% of the population may already have had the disease and so have increased immunity.