loading page

COVID-19: FORECAST OF AN EMERGING URGENCY IN PAKISTAN
  • +4
  • Rabia Chaudhry,
  • Asif hanif ,
  • Muhammad Chaudhary,
  • Sadia Minhas,
  • Khalid Mirza ,
  • Tahira Ashraf ,
  • Syed Gilani
Rabia Chaudhry
The University of Lahore

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Asif hanif
The University of Lahore
Author Profile
Muhammad Chaudhary
University of Derby
Author Profile
Sadia Minhas
Akhtar Saeed Medical and Dental College
Author Profile
Khalid Mirza
Akhtar Saeed Medical and Dental College
Author Profile
Tahira Ashraf
The University of Lahore
Author Profile
Syed Gilani
The University of Lahore
Author Profile

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been declared a pandemic of 2020 by World Health Organization (WHO). Due to its novelty there is very little knowledge available about it, and thus there is a great need of collection of data related to COVID-19, from all around the world. Hence, we have conducted this study, collecting daily data on COVID-19 from National Institute of Health (NIH) Pakistan and WHO, to map the epidemiology of COVID-19 outbreak, forecast its trajectory from 4th April till 30th April, and review the preventive measures taken by government of Pakistan. The data was collected from NIH-Pakistan and WHO official released reports, analysis was done using SPSS version 23 and forecasting was made using time series modeler / expert modeler. The purpose of this study is to draw the attention of international as well as national governing bodies towards the rapidly rising number of COVID-19 cases in Pakistan, and the urgency to evaluate the efficacy of currently implemented strategy against COVID-19. According to this study, the spread of COVID-19 is slower than predicted, but there is an alarming increase in growth rate now, and the predicted COVID-19 cases by the end of April can go up to around 8,000 or higher. Hence, it is crucial for the governing bodies to re-evaluate the current situation and implemented strategy. Discussions should be conducted by the administrators and researchers for any change in the strategy if required, before the situation further aggravates.