COVID-19 FORECAST, EPIDEMIOLOGY, AND PREVENTION
AUTHORS Rabia Mushtaq Chaudhry 1,2*rabia-mushtaq@live.comAsif Hanif 3asif.hanif@ahs.uol.edu.pk , mebiostatistician@gmail.comMuhammad AbdulBasit Chaudhary 4mabasit.ft@gmail.comSadia Minhas 5,6sadiawasif81@gmail.comKhalid Saeed Mirza 7
khalidsaeed196300@gmail.comTahira Ashraf 8tahira.ashraf@rsmi.uol.edu.pkSyed Amir Gilani 9profgilani@gmail.com
1M-Phil Public Health Scholar, University Institute of Public Health, University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan.
2Demonstrator Oral Medicine, Akhtar Saeed Medical and Dental College, Lahore, Pakistan.
3Associate Professor, University Institute of Public Health, University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan
4 Masters Public and Environmental Health Scholar, University of Derby, United Kingdom
5.Assistant Professor, Oral Pathology, Akhtar Saeed Medical and Dental College, Lahore, Pakistan
6. PhD Scholar Microbiology and Virology, University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan
7. Assistant Professor, Periodontology, Akhtar Saeed medical and Dental College, Lahore, Pakistan
8. S. Lecturer: University Institute of Radiological Sciences & Medical Imaging Technology, The university of Lahore
9. Professor: University Institute of Radiological Sciences & Medical Imaging Technology, The university of Lahore
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR:NAME: Rabia Mushtaq Chaudhry:ASSOCIATION: M-Phil Public Health Scholar, University Institute of Public Health, University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan / Demonstrator Oral Medicine, Akhtar Saeed Medical and Dental College, Lahore, Pakistan.EMAIL ADDRESS : rabia-mushtaq@live.com TELEPHONE: +923366332345
SUMMARY: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been declared a pandemic of 2020 by World Health Organization (WHO). Due to its novelty there is very little knowledge available about it, and thus there is a great need of collection of data related to COVID-19, from all around the world. Hence, we have conducted this study, collecting daily data on COVID-19 from National Institute of Health (NIH) Pakistan and WHO, to map the epidemiology of COVID-19 outbreak, forecast its trajectory from 4th April till 30th April, and review the preventive measures taken by government of Pakistan. The data was collected from NIH-Pakistan and WHO official released reports, analysis was done using SPSS version 23, and forecasting was made using time series modeler / expert modeler. The purpose of this study is to draw the attention of international as well as national governing bodies towards the rapidly rising number of COVID-19 cases in Pakistan, and the urgency to evaluate the efficacy of currently implemented strategy against COVID-19. According to this study, the spread of COVID-19 is slower than predicted, but there is an alarming increase in growth rate now, and the predicted COVID-19 cases by the end of April can go up to around 8,000 or higher. Hence, it is crucial for the governing bodies to re-evaluate the current situation and implemented strategy. Discussions should be conducted by the administrators and researchers for any change in the strategy if required, before the situation further aggravates.
KEYWORDS: COVID-19 virus; Epidemiology; COVID-19 Forecasting; COVID-19 in Pakistan.