Figure 1.Total area and production of sugarcane in Pakistan
(2002–2016).
Source.Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (2016).
Several countries are considered as leading sugarcane producers,
including Columbia, where 123.0 tons ha-1 are produced, Australia,
Egypt, and the USA produces 99.3, 87.3, and 74.6 tons ha-1 respectively
(Devaraja 2008). Pakistan produces around 43 tons ha-1, which is
relatively small as compared to the other leading sugarcane producing
countries. In Pakistan, sugarcane is produced in the regions of Sindh,
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), and Punjab, among which Punjab ranks first in
sugarcaneproduction (Ur-Rehman, Wassan, and Dost 2012).
Sugarcane is not only a source of income for sugar manufacturers but
also for several people in Pakistan who resell sugars and sugar
products. Sugarcaneis the source of income for about 64% of the total
agricultural output in Sindh(Haq et al. 2013). A total of 91 sugar mills
are located in Punjab, 48 in Sindh, and nine in KPK. These sugar mills
produce approximately 3.2 million tons of sugar, to meet Pakistan’s
demand. There is a significant gapbetween the quantity in
whichsugarcaneis produced and the requirement.This gapmay be attributed
to bad farming practices, environmental conditions and other conditions
that could include the lack of government and other stakeholder
facilities (Rana 2018).
Climate change has various causes, but all of them do not impact the
production of sugarcane in all regions (Economic Survey of Pakistan
2007). It is true that identification of the primary factors, including
climate change, that hinder sugarcane production is necessary. Still,
studyingstrategies and measures to address the negative impacts of
climate change in Pakistan is far more critical. The main objective of
this research is to analyze sugarcane production problems in Sindh, as
the sugarcanefarmers face climate change issues and how they can be
effectively handled. This study is based on primary data, obtained from
the survey, and secondary data that include relevant studies to climate
change and sugarcane production. In reality, it is not possible to
eliminate the adverse effects of global warming;still, these steps and
techniques can be adapted to the unfavorable climate changes impacts on
sugarcane production. This study, therefore, examines the particular
problems that undermine the capacity of sugarcane production in the
Sindh province of Pakistan.
Literature review
Approximately 70% of the Pakistani population is linked directly and
indirectly to agriculture.Businesses produce raw materials and
fertilizers for farmers; some companies use agricultural products; and
farmers earn their sustenance (Rana 2018).
The temperature effects on the rate and efficiency of photosynthesis are
directly linked to the growth of crops. Studying air temperatures
between 34 and 5 °C, Waldron, Glasziou, and Bull (1967) observed a
linear decrease in the efficiency of photosynthesis. Sugarcane needs
optimal temperature,otherwise the yield is reduced. Extreme temperatures
cause a severe reduction in the yield of sugarcane due to its
physiology, biochemistry, and quality, which lead to poor agricultural
products. During planting, low or high temperature influences
germination, cultivation, and the viability of early growing crops such
as sugarcane which are dependent on the temperature. Several
experimentshave been carried out to boost the quality of sugarcane at
high and low temperatures.Stender (1924) showed a close relationship
between the stalk’s length and diameter and air temperature, with a drop
of one-third in the growth rate in the winter against that observed in
summer. The reduction in stalk growth rate, either in length or
diameter, is followed by an increase in the rate of sucrose
accumulation. The physiological ripening process of sugarcaneis
dependent on the seasonal reduction in air temperature, which slows
growth rates(Alexander, 1973; Mamet & Galwey, 1999). However, this
decline in the levels of growth does not affect the photosynthetic
process significantly. This can make it possible to prevent further
photosynthesis. Cardozo (2012) noted an inversely proportional
relationship between air temperature and sugarcane ripening, with higher
correlation coefficients found when the air temperature was measured
120–150 days before sampling, which is in accordance withthe findings
of Clement (1962).
Glasziou et al. (1965) found that when the air temperature reduced over
a long period, high sugar content was achieved. According to them when
the air temperature is constant or when minor normal temperature
fluctuations occur, sugar concentration does not reach 12% of the fresh
weight. However, when the average air temperature decreases over a long
period, that is, three to six months, the concentration of sugar
exceeded 17% of the fresh weight. There is no consistency among
researchers about the thermal parameters for sugarcane, which are
primarily related to the base temperatures, as various baseline
temperature values are proposed which may differ depending on the
location, cultivars, and phenological process (Scarpari andBeauclair
2004).
Barnes (1964) considered the basic shooting temperature to be 12 °C,
while Inman-Bamber (1994) found a base temperature of 16 °C for
tillering.Bacchi and Souza (1977) reported values between 18 and 19 °C
for the internode elongation period. The earliest cultivars (SP91-1049
and SP86-155) were higher in ripening of sugarcane, varying between 20
and 21 °C, whilethose in the middle (RB867515) werelower ripening
cultivars (SP 83-2847), between 18 and 19 °C, as examined by Cardozo
(2012),who found discrepancies in the base temperature. According to
Cardozo (2012), the higher the base temperature, the smaller the rate of
growth under low air temperature, explaining the precocity of specific
crops in comparison to others. Late cultivars are less sensitive to low
air temperature than the early ones; they continue their growth for
longer periods, thus delaying their ripening.
Various reforms to boost agricultural markets in the undeveloped
countries have been addressed in previous studies but the environmental
aspect of these reforms has been skipped. Improvements need to be made
with concerted steps to tackle the detrimental side of climate change as
the implications of climate change cannot be avoided. A study related to
sugarcane production was conducted in 2003.The results suggested that
sugarcane should be used as a substitute for sweeteners instead of
exporting it as a raw material. The study was carried out using Policy
Analysis Matrix (PAM), Domestic Resource Costs (DRC), and social
benefits and cost (SBC) analysis, which supported sugarcane’s
competitiveness in Pakistan (Khan, Farooq, and Saddozai 2006).
Tayyab et al. (2018) examined some of the bacterial diseases that
occurred in crops because of climate change. Their study confirms the
need of high quality fertilizers to deal with bacterial attacks on
sugarcane. The occurrence of diseases is partly due to the climate
change in Pakistan.
While several reasons have been identified for the poor production of
sugarcane in Pakistan, environmental factors have been ignored. The
survey introspected several of the reasons,for instance, high cost of
land, unskilled labor, and lack of extension services, adequate training
for farmers, and access to financial facilities in rural areasapart from
prevalence of conventionaltechniques and methods as well as little
information regarding marketing. Despite the existence of several
policies and programs of the Government of Pakistan for farmers,a focus
on environmental factors is lacking, whereas this cannot be managed
instantly as it requires time and effort.(Bhutta, Ilyas, and Usman,
2019). In Pakistan, the potential for producing sugarcane on a large
scale is very high, but due to several reasons and factors, actual
production is below average.
Sugarcane goes through two critical phases, growing phase and ripening
phase. In the first phase, bright sun with high humidity as well as an
optimum level of rainfall are required, while during the ripening phase,
dry weather with less precipitation is needed; otherwise, the yield will
be damaged (Girei and Giroh 2012).Also, saline soil is not suitable for
sugarcane production (Husain and Khattak 2011). The pH level in water as
well as high nutrients in the soil play a significant role in sugarcane
growth and pH up to 8.5is tolerable (Sharif et al. 2014). Heat wave has
increased in Pakistan due to high emission of CO2 and
this has impacted the working conditions for sugarcane laborers,as
sugarcane grows in bright sunlight with high radiations. High intense
heat also contributes to rapid evaporationof water from the soil and
plants which creates demand for more water for the production of
sugarcane. Drought is also the major factor that affects
crops,especially sugarcane yields,as tube wellsare not able to provide
the required water and farmers depend on rainfall and canal water(Aslam
2016; Qureshi 2011). Because of the adverse effects of climate change,
farmers need pesticides to counterclimate-related diseases. These
pesticides are, on the other hand, sold at higher prices, (Bhutta,
Ilyas, and Usman, 2019).
Many countries, including Pakistan, have been affected by the climate
change. The causes of the intensified heat waves and climate changes
worldwide are established, but to a certain degree, they are
uncontrollable. In reality, CO2increase can be
regulated or decreased but cannot be entirely prevented (Qureshi et al.
2008). Climate change has many negative consequences in Pakistan that
haveaffected almost every region and areas like forests, biodiversity,
people and food production (Qureshi et al. 2010; Ur-Rehmanet al., 2012).
Several studies have been carried out on sugarcane production. Still,
none of them addresses abiotic stress management practices (climate
changes) to increase the production rates. According to Khan, Farooq,
and Saddozai (2006), sugarcane has to be produced and consumed in
Pakistan instead of being exported. Their study was based on an analysis
of social benefits and resource costs. While Farid(2012) conducted a
research in KPK, which show that the projects of farms are economically
profitable and must be encouraged in Pakistan. This research was focused
on a model of cost–benefit analysis, based on the data from surveys and
did not cover the environmental factors.
A significant experiment was carried out by Khan, Khan, and Khan, (2012)
to evaluate the cost–benefit analysis of sugarcane production. On the
other hand,Husain and Khattak (2011) conducted a research to examine the
relationship between sugarcane production and the various factors that
included resources, labor, and marketing but ignored the environmental
factors. Also, no study has been undertaken in which sugarcane growers’
views and suggestions to reduce the ill effects of climate change were
discussed. Based on the experimental design, in which secondary data was
collected, Sharif et al. (2014) observed that white sugar is consumed
more and should be produced moreto achieve more profit. This study does
not answer what strategies and measures should be taken by sugarcane
producers to deal with climate change. Indeed, suggestions and opinions
of sugarcane growers of the Sindh region in Pakistan are worthy in
dealing with climate change effects as they experience the impact of
climate change directly. Pakistani government officials have reported
that sugarcane production will decline in Sindh by the end of 2019.
There is a higher volume of taxes and duties, but there is no strong
evidence of environmental resistance (Sugarcane, 2018; Land Degradation
in Sindh, 2002). In Pakistan 83% of the total sugarcane farmers are
landowners but are not yet able to grow sugarcane in large, due to
environmental factors(Cheema et al., 2019).
Many researchers have considered different factors responsible for
carbon emissions. In these research studies, several factors of climate
change that affects the agricultural sectorhave been investigated.
Still, no specific research has been done on the specific issues of
climate change in Sindh. These factors are major obstacles in achieving
a high sugarcane growth, even when farmers use sophisticated modern
technologies and are willing to invest in terms of time and money. Khan
et al.(2012) assessed the relation between the production of sugarcane
and different factors including capital,labor, and marketing, but their
study did not cover environmental factors. So far, these studies have
not considered what policies and steps should be made to cope with
climate change factors. In reality, sugarcane growers from the region of
Sindh in Pakistan have suggestions and views worth considering when
dealing with the impact of climate change. In view of the above
discussion, the main objective of this study are:
- To explore previous relevant studies and gather significant
information regarding sugarcane production and related environmental
factors (variable: climate change).
- To explore previous studies on sugarcane production in
Pakistan to identify the independent variables (environmental
factors).
- To conduct a survey in Sindh on farmers to investigate the
relationship among independent variables and a dependent variable
using an econometric model.
- Discuss measures and strategies to deal with the identified
issues related to climate change in Sindh as per the targeted audience
(farmers from the select region).