Spatiotemporal patterns of drought, its impact on crop production and
the economy in South Asia
Abstract
Drought has vastly impacted agriculture all over the globe. However it’s
impact on crop production: degree and extent is poorly characterized. As
the occurrence of more extreme droughts is likely to increase under
climate change, understanding the vulnerability of crop production to
droughts is a crucial to evaluate and determine the size of the losses.
In this study, we used drought events in the South Asia region during
the time period 2003-2018, to compare various indices developed for the
study of drought phenomena. Three indices namely: the precipitation
condition index (PCI), vegetation cover index (VCI) and temperature
condition index (TCI) depend on remote sensing data were assimilated to
produce an integrated drought severity index (IDSI) to estimate drought
conditions. We also correlated the IDSI anomaly with the yield anomaly
in the region. The results showed that IDSI has a good correlation with
yield anomaly. The study also investigated the influence of drought on
area harvested (ha) production (hg/ha) and yield (tons). Economic losses
were assessed using the empirical relations between crop yields, IDSI,
monthly precipitation, and annual precipitation. The results showed
agriculture GDP (AGDP) has a statistically significant correlation
(p-value < 0.01) with economic loss and the correlation
coefficient R2 registered 0.32, 0.82, 0.84, 0.51 0.79 and 0.81 in
Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Bhutan, Nepal and Bangladesh respectively.
The results of this study offer scientific support for decision-making
targeted towards disaster mitigation and adaptation under climate change
by identifying the regions in which drought risk control and management.