Climate factors currently limiting population persistence
Temperature fundamentally limits mosquito ranges and persistence through its influence on mosquito survival, development, and reproductive rates, but the precise aspects of temperature that determine these limits remain unclear (Christophers 1960, Yang et al. 2009, Brady et al. 2013, Shapiro et al. 2017, Tesla et al. 2018, Shocket et al. 2018, Mordecai et al. 2019). Temperature averages, variability, extremes, and interactions among these factors all impact ectotherm fitness (Lambrechts et al. 2011, Bozinovic et al. 2011, Kingsolver et al. 2013, Paaijmans et al. 2013, Blanford et al. 2013, Dowd et al. 2015, Buckley and Huey 2016). While the temperature variable that most strongly constrains mosquito persistence will likely vary by location and population, maximum temperature has been identified as the strongest driver of species extinctions across a wide range of animal and plant species (Román-Palacios and Wiens 2020). Because environmental temperatures that exceed organismal thermal optima or critical thermal maxima have especially strong negative impacts on fitness (Deutsch et al. 2008, Kingsolver et al. 2013), changes in maximum summer temperatures may exert the strongest selection pressure on mosquito populations near their warm range limits. As most temperature – trait responses are studied under constant temperatures (Deutsch et al. 2008, Angilletta 2009, Paaijmans et al. 2013, Vasseur et al. 2014, Dowd et al. 2015, Buckley and Huey 2016), we consider mosquito responses to increases in mean temperature as a focal example. However, the framework we present can readily be applied to any specific measure of temperature or other environmental variable, such as temperature extremes, precipitation, wind patterns, land use change, and human activities (Reiter 2001, Patz et al. 2008, Paaijmans and Thomas 2011, Mordecai et al. 2019, Franklinos et al. 2019, Rocklöv and Dubrow 2020).