Figure 1.
Framework for investigating mosquito climate adaptive potential. Several mechanisms may enable in situ population persistence (evolutionary adaptations in mosquito physiology, phenotypic plasticity, phenological shifts, and life history adjustments; top panel). Investigating the potential for evolutionary climate adaptation requires first identifying the climate factors and traits limiting population persistence (middle panel), then comparing the rate of projected climatic change to potential evolutionary rates (bottom panel). Evolutionary rates can be estimated based on evolutionary potential (strength of selection, and heritability and variation in the trait of interest), population demographic characteristics (maximum growth rate and generation time), and trait – environment relationships (phenotypic plasticity and environmental sensitivity of selection). In the strength of selection panel (top left), the dashed and solid lines indicate the population before and after natural selection, respectively. In the heritability panel (bottom left), P1 and F1 denote the parental and offspring generations.