Box 1.
Evolutionary rescue model formula (Chevin et al. 2010) and parameter
definitions.
\begin{equation}
\eta_{\text{c\ }}=\ \sqrt{\frac{2\ r_{\max}\gamma}{T}}\ \frac{h^{2}\sigma^{2}}{\left|B-b\right|}\nonumber \\
\end{equation}\(\eta_{c}\): maximum rate of environmental change: the highest
rate of sustained environmental change under which long-term population
persistence is possible.
\(\ r_{\max}\): maximum population growth rate: the intrinsic
rate of increase under optimal conditions (i.e., no intra- or
inter-specific competition).
\(\gamma\): strength of selection: the impact on fitness from
deviations from the optimal trait value under a given environment. As in
Kearney et al. 2009, a standardized version of selection strength can be
approximated from temperature-dependent survival rates by:
i = 2.2014 - 0.04884s + 0.000558\(s^{2}\)-
0.0000029\(s^{3}\)
where s is the percentage survival under a given environmental
change, and i is given as the change in phenotype (in standard
deviations) between the starting and selected populations (Falconer and
Mackay 1996, Matsumura et al. 2012).
T: population generation time : (for populations with discrete,
non-overlapping generations), the mean time between reproduction in one
cohort to reproduction in the successive cohort.
\(h^{2}\): heritability : the proportion of phenotypic variance
in a trait attributable to additive genetic effects.
\(\sigma^{2}\): phenotypic variance : the measured variance in
the trait of interest
B: environmental sensitivity of selection : the change in the
optimum phenotype with environmental change.
b: phenotypic plasticity: the ability of individual genotypes
to produce alternative phenotypes in different environments (Via et al.
1995). Here, plasticity encompasses thermal acclimation, dormancy and
behavioral thermoregulation including shifts in mosquito biting,
microhabitat usage, and oviposition sites and timing.
Figure Legends