Box 1.
Evolutionary rescue model formula (Chevin et al. 2010) and parameter definitions.
\begin{equation} \eta_{\text{c\ }}=\ \sqrt{\frac{2\ r_{\max}\gamma}{T}}\ \frac{h^{2}\sigma^{2}}{\left|B-b\right|}\nonumber \\ \end{equation}
\(\eta_{c}\): maximum rate of environmental change: the highest rate of sustained environmental change under which long-term population persistence is possible.
\(\ r_{\max}\): maximum population growth rate: the intrinsic rate of increase under optimal conditions (i.e., no intra- or inter-specific competition).
\(\gamma\): strength of selection: the impact on fitness from deviations from the optimal trait value under a given environment. As in Kearney et al. 2009, a standardized version of selection strength can be approximated from temperature-dependent survival rates by:
i = 2.2014 - 0.04884s + 0.000558\(s^{2}\)- 0.0000029\(s^{3}\)
where s is the percentage survival under a given environmental change, and i is given as the change in phenotype (in standard deviations) between the starting and selected populations (Falconer and Mackay 1996, Matsumura et al. 2012).
T: population generation time : (for populations with discrete, non-overlapping generations), the mean time between reproduction in one cohort to reproduction in the successive cohort.
\(h^{2}\): heritability : the proportion of phenotypic variance in a trait attributable to additive genetic effects.
\(\sigma^{2}\): phenotypic variance : the measured variance in the trait of interest
B: environmental sensitivity of selection : the change in the optimum phenotype with environmental change.
b: phenotypic plasticity: the ability of individual genotypes to produce alternative phenotypes in different environments (Via et al. 1995). Here, plasticity encompasses thermal acclimation, dormancy and behavioral thermoregulation including shifts in mosquito biting, microhabitat usage, and oviposition sites and timing.
Figure Legends