Future climate and hydrological condition:
Observed annual average percipitation in UCS for observation period is
1440 mm. For the omission scenarios (moderate and severe) and perojected
future time period (mid-century and late-century) considered in this
study, annual average rainfalls vary from 1486 mm to 1569 mm (table 9).
Average annual maximum and minimum temperature for baseline period are
13℃ and 26℃ respectively. The
projected average annual maximum and minimum has increases ranging 0.98
-2.4 ℃ and 1.55-2.55 ℃, respectively.
Figure 9 demonstartes the monthly behavior of the projected tempertaure
(average, maximum, and minimum) thruogh a year for the entire simulation
period (2040-2099). The projecte maximum and minimum temperature shifts
above with increases up 3℃ in June, July, and August during mid-century.
There are not noticeable changes between moderate and sever emission
scenarios for mid-century, except in summer, where changes are up 1℃.
For the late-century period, however, changes are significant (Figure 9
lower panel). Projected increase for RCP6.0 is doubled compared to the
projected increase in temperature under RCP4.5 during late century. For
both mid and late century temperature increases for Spring and Fall is
not as high as increases in Summer and Winter. This indicates a general
warming weather with hotter Summer and Winters that could potentially
lead to seasonal time shifting and early snow melts and consequently
changes in hydrological cycle in UCS. The annual trend of average,
maximum, and minimum temperature behavior shown in Figure 10 supports
these changes towards the end of the century. The upper panel shows
average annual temperature under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5. The regression line
under severs emission scenarios are steeper indicating more increase as
we approach towards the end of the century. Maximum and minimum
temperature (the mid and lower panel on Figure 10) also have the same
trend. These changes have been quantified in Table 9. Maximum and
minimum temperature is projected up to 10% increase by 90s under
moderate scenario and 30% increase under sever scenarios compared to
baseline period. Table 9 also reflects decadal percent change of
rainfall. Based on the models and under moderate scenarios, annual
rainfall is projected to increase slightly (Figure 11). However, under
sever scenarios no pattern was found. For instance, average
precipitation for 40s under RCP4.5 is projected to decrease 6.33% and
1% increase during 90s compared to baseline period. Under RCP6.0,
however, for 40s, precipitation change is projected to be 6.8% decrease
and for 90s is 8.45% increase. This pattern implicates the wiggling
behavior of the precipitation which can implicate extreme precipitation.