Future climate and hydrological condition:
Observed annual average percipitation in UCS for observation period is 1440 mm. For the omission scenarios (moderate and severe) and perojected future time period (mid-century and late-century) considered in this study, annual average rainfalls vary from 1486 mm to 1569 mm (table 9). Average annual maximum and minimum temperature for baseline period are 13℃ and 26℃ respectively. The projected average annual maximum and minimum has increases ranging 0.98 -2.4 ℃ and 1.55-2.55 ℃, respectively.
Figure 9 demonstartes the monthly behavior of the projected tempertaure (average, maximum, and minimum) thruogh a year for the entire simulation period (2040-2099). The projecte maximum and minimum temperature shifts above with increases up 3℃ in June, July, and August during mid-century. There are not noticeable changes between moderate and sever emission scenarios for mid-century, except in summer, where changes are up 1℃. For the late-century period, however, changes are significant (Figure 9 lower panel). Projected increase for RCP6.0 is doubled compared to the projected increase in temperature under RCP4.5 during late century. For both mid and late century temperature increases for Spring and Fall is not as high as increases in Summer and Winter. This indicates a general warming weather with hotter Summer and Winters that could potentially lead to seasonal time shifting and early snow melts and consequently changes in hydrological cycle in UCS. The annual trend of average, maximum, and minimum temperature behavior shown in Figure 10 supports these changes towards the end of the century. The upper panel shows average annual temperature under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5. The regression line under severs emission scenarios are steeper indicating more increase as we approach towards the end of the century. Maximum and minimum temperature (the mid and lower panel on Figure 10) also have the same trend. These changes have been quantified in Table 9. Maximum and minimum temperature is projected up to 10% increase by 90s under moderate scenario and 30% increase under sever scenarios compared to baseline period. Table 9 also reflects decadal percent change of rainfall. Based on the models and under moderate scenarios, annual rainfall is projected to increase slightly (Figure 11). However, under sever scenarios no pattern was found. For instance, average precipitation for 40s under RCP4.5 is projected to decrease 6.33% and 1% increase during 90s compared to baseline period. Under RCP6.0, however, for 40s, precipitation change is projected to be 6.8% decrease and for 90s is 8.45% increase. This pattern implicates the wiggling behavior of the precipitation which can implicate extreme precipitation.