Forecasting China’s per capita living energy consumption by employing
the DGM (1,1, tα) model with fractional order accumulation
Abstract
The living energy consumption of residents has become an important
technical index to promote the economic and social development strategy.
In order to explore the future development trend of China’s per capita
living energy consumption, this paper establishes a novel grey model to
predict China’s per capita living energy consumption. Firstly, this
article introduces the fractional accumulation operation and builds the
discrete DGM (1,1, tα) model with fractional order accumulation model
(abbreviated as FDGM (1,1, tα) model) on this basis. Secondly, the whale
algorithm is introduced to solve the parameters of the FDGM (1,1, tα)
model. Thirdly, the advantages of the FDGM (1,1, tα) model over the
traditional grey models are illustrated by a real case. Fourthly, the
metabolism mechanism is introduced into the FDGM (1,1, tα) model to
enhance the prediction performance of the FDGM (1,1, tα) model. Finally,
the FDGM (1,1, tα) model based on metabolism mechanism is used to
predict China’s per capita living energy consumption from 2018 to 2029.