2.3 Comparison of simulated results to observed results in
ROCKET AF
To validate the DES model, we compare the simulated results and observed
results of ROCKET AF. RDs and relative HRs (RHRs) of each outcome were
calculated. RDs were estimated as the difference in the absolute risk of
each outcome, and were calculated by subtracting the observed incidence
from simulated incidence 19. HRs were for the
rivaroxaban group as compared with the warfarin group. The RHRs were
calculated by dividing simulated HRs by observed HRs for each outcome19. Both RDs and RHRs reflect the model error, which
could be caused by misspecification of simulation structure or
assumptions about input parameters. RDs around 0 and RHRs near to1
represent low error of the simulation model.