3.2 Simulation of ROCKET AF
The discrete event simulation model (Figure 1) successfully replicated the overall results of ROCKET AF (Table 2). The simulation was repeated 1000 times to obtain robust and convergent results (Figure S1 and Figure S2). The simulated incidence of stroke/SE and major bleeding was 1.718 vs 1.980, and 3.463 vs 3.379 per 100 patient-years, for rivaroxaban and warfarin, respectively. The RDs between simulated and observed results were relatively low among each outcome (Table 2). The simulated HRs comparing rivaroxaban and warfarin in the risks of stroke/SE and major bleeding were 0.868 (95%CI, 0.863-0.872) and 1.025 (95%CI, 1.021-1.029), respectively (Table 3). The RHRs between simulated and observed results were around 1. The results indicated that estimated risks and HRs were closely matched the observed risks and HRs in ROCKET AF, representing the low error of the simulation model.