2.3 Comparison of simulated results to observed results in ROCKET AF
To validate the DES model, we compare the simulated results and observed results of ROCKET AF. RDs and relative HRs (RHRs) of each outcome were calculated. RDs were estimated as the difference in the absolute risk of each outcome, and were calculated by subtracting the observed incidence from simulated incidence 19. HRs were for the rivaroxaban group as compared with the warfarin group. The RHRs were calculated by dividing simulated HRs by observed HRs for each outcome19. Both RDs and RHRs reflect the model error, which could be caused by misspecification of simulation structure or assumptions about input parameters. RDs around 0 and RHRs near to1 represent low error of the simulation model.