Business-as-usual 2030 scenario – Food for
some
Based on the key characteristics of the six drivers identified, we
identified 84 unique evidence-based outcomes anticipated to occur in the
next decade (Table S1) under a Business-as-usual scenario. These
anticipated outcomes were then used by the co-authors to frame three
narratives based on co-authors perspectives and expertise, and grounded
in the literature, to present the scenario. The three narratives were
created to reflect the varied ways in which the future, under current
ongoing trajectories, might be experienced by different people. This
reflection included rural and natural resource‐based communities that
are often overlooked in mainstream conceptualisations of sustainable
development (Lowery et al. 2020). The use of narratives allowed the
co-authors to explore and envisage how the drivers might shape the
future in 2030 in different contexts, without being overwhelmed by
dystopian visions of irreversible environmental degradation and societal
collapse that have tended to dominate other future scenario work
(Bennett et al. 2016; Raudsepp-Hearne et al. 2019). This narrative
approach has previously been shown to be a valuable communication
technique for comparing and evaluating science policy contexts
(Dahlstrom and Ho 2012; Merrie et al. 2018; Olson 2015). However, we
recognise that this approach is limited by the lived and academic
experience of the author group and that not all aspects of future food
and nutrition security can be represented in one narrative, or in one
research paper.
More sustainable 2030 scenario, pathways and actions –
Food for
all
A ‘More sustainable 2030’ scenario was developed to address the
limitations to seafood contributing to food and nutrition security
raised through the Business-as-usual scenario, and move beyond this
anticipated future. The alternative 2030 is intended to be consistent
with the EAT–Lancet strategies for transforming food systems to be more
sustainable and equitable (Willett et al. 2019) as well as the
objectives outlined in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (United
Nations 2015), in particular those classified as integral (SDGs 2, 3, 12
and 14) and closely associated (SDGs 1, 5, 8, 10, 13, 15, 16 & 17) to
food and nutrition security and seafood (Table S2). While we note that
all SDGs and targets can be linked to food and nutrition security and
oceans (Blanchard et al. 2017; Hambrey 2017; Rockström and Sukhdev 2019;
Singh et al. 2018), some are arguably more closely associated than
others (e.g. Nippon Foundation 2017), and that these can be identified
to help target key actions to deliver change. The identification of key
relevant SDGs, involved a qualitative classification of all SDGs as
either integral, closely associated, or peripherally linked to the
challenge identified. This process occurred via internal group
discussion and consensus by all co-authors. To develop the scenario, the
authors identified five areas or pathways for change and actions to
underpin the pathways and move away from ‘Business-as-usual’ towards the
‘More sustainable’ future. The pathways and actions were developed based
on authors’ expertise and knowledge of existing research and case
studies. The actions were refined to account for overlap, where the same
action appeared under multiple drivers, resulting in 23 key actions
(Table S3). The summarised actions were then linked with pathways to
demonstrate a way forward. The process of developing the scenario,
pathways and actions, was iterative and aimed to identify the ‘More
Sustainable’ futures that were technically feasible and capable of being
accomplished over the time period 2021-2030.
Assumptions
The identification and description of drivers, actions and pathways was
based on several overarching assumptions. Cross-challenge assumptions
identified were general in nature and related to: (1) events that could
not reasonably be anticipated within the scope of the Future Seas Key
Challenges, (e.g. global-scale conflicts), (2) well-known dynamics for
which we could assume current predictions would hold over the next ten
years (e.g. climate change), (3) factors that are unlikely to change
over the course of the Decade of Ocean Science (e.g. cessation of all
fishing) (see Nash et al. in review-b this issue). Additional,
challenge-specific assumptions relevant to seafood systems are available
in the supplementary information. We acknowledge that our pathways and
actions represent possible ways toward achieving sustainable and secure
seafood systems for all in association with relevant SDGs, however, they
are not the only pathways and actions that could be implemented.
Results and Discussion - Imagining
the
future
In this, and the following section, we outline possible future scenarios
for seafood systems and food and nutrition security. We begin with the
Business-as-usual 2030 scenario (section 3.1), presented from the
perspective of three fictional characters. We then describe a more
sustainable 2030 (section 3.2) which is conceptualised through five main
pathways for change (Section 4).
Scenario 1 – Food for some (Business-as-usual
2030)
The narratives used to present the Business-as-usual scenario are
intended to provide a snapshot into the lives of three fictional
characters in the year 2030 as we anticipate it to be based on current
evidence (see Table S1). The aim of these fictional narratives is to
translate the vast amount of information available in the literature
relating to our drivers, and their potential influence on seafood
systems in the next decade, into more accessible personal accounts. It
is hoped these personal accounts ‘bring-to-life’ the key characteristics
of the drivers (Table 1 and S1) and enable the reader to actually
imagine how 2030 may be experienced by different people. The characters
identified have been deliberately left vague and simplistic in their
behaviour. Citizen 1 represents a middle-class diner in a developed
economy who is concerned about food sustainability and nutrition, and
motivated by price. Citizen 2 represents a mariculture enterprise
employee in Asia, where mariculture is currently projected to increase
on a large-scale. Citizen 3 represents an elder living in a Small Island
Developing State who has witnessed large changes in fishery resources.
Citizen 1 – Finn, ‘wellbeing’
advisor
What a busy week. My partner and I are treating ourselves to dinner out
tonight. We order salmon. A steak would be good for our iron levels, but
it is too expensive these days with the red meat tax. Also, fish is more
sustainable than red meat and it is definitely more nutritious than the
ready-to-eat fake-meat curries we’ve been having during the week, or the
3D printed fish nuggets they sell at the canteen. I scan the code on the
menu and see that my fish is imported and farmed. Wild fish have been
really expensive lately, maybe because there have been problems with
disease outbreaks. I don’t touch seafood without a code these days,
which makes a lot of products off-limits as they don’t have any
information on where they come from and how they were produced. My fish
isn’t local, which I would prefer as I think local is more sustainable
and better quality, but it is still very fresh as it was harvested
yesterday and flown directly here. I can see the drones out the window
flying between the restaurant district and the airport, carrying fish
and other fresh goods. I would like to catch my own fish, you can’t get
better quality than that, but I don’t really know what the local fish
are anymore. The species seem to have changed quite a lot in the last
few years. We used to catch cod off the local pier, but it washed away
last month, and with bad storms coming frequently now, there doesn’t
seem to be a plan to rebuild. I check the code again for some ethical
information and the details on what the fish was fed, but nothing is
listed. I worry about all the microplastics in food, but the code shows
that this fish has a low microplastic-content score which is good,
probably from all the insects that go into animal feeds these days. I
sync the salmon’s provenance data with my nutrition app and see the
orange tick for my daily intake. Next time I’ll pre-order an off-shore
farmed fish, fed with marine algae. It’s more expensive but it has great
nutritional value. At least my fish is fresh and will be grilled. And we
can add some anchovy powder on top to get the green tick for meeting my
daily micronutrient requirements. Once I get the tick I think I’ll
celebrate with a glass of wine.
Citizen 2 – Li, mariculture enterprise
manager
The company has reached a milestone! We can grow our fish to market size
in half the time it took in 2020. We are now a very high tech and
large-scale operation with genetic improvement and feed formulations
matched to specific fish requirements. Our management operations,
vaccines and forecasting tools are also targeted to prevent disease.
Currently we are only focused on the high value grouper species as we
couldn’t access or afford to implement the same level of knowledge for
lower value species, or overcome complex environmental problems to make
Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture (IMTA) work for us. But the upside
is that due to our success with grouper, we are now looking to farm
other high value species, including some of the most challenging such as
giant tuna. Our company is well ahead of many of our competitors and the
small-scale operators who have not updated their production systems for
many years. I remember when I first started we used to farm these fish
on the coast, but most of our production is now either land-based, with
recirculating systems, or off-shore. The pollution and extreme weather
impacts on coastal farming mean it is just too expensive to farm there
anymore, not to mention the difficulty to get permits or support from
community groups. The company owns all the fish and the crop farms in
the region, as well as the processors and feed mills. It means we can
assess our efficiency along the whole supply now. We do still lose some
fish, but technology and traceability makes it easier to get all the
certifications and sell internationally. That’s important in some
markets these days, especially some international markets where we can
get a good price. There’s a lot of demand from the bigger cities,
especially for higher value products, so we are doing well. We are
making a lot of ready-to-eat meals. Not my favourite, but it’s what
customers want. We are also servicing new markets in the smaller towns.
New processing and packaging have really improved shelf life and the
quality of products. Given it’s a high value product, our prices are
very competitive, and so the company has become very well known. I think
they are a great employer, but it is hard for smaller operators who are
struggling to source feed and keep their prices low. I hear it is just
as hard, or harder, for the wild fishers. Lots of them are getting out
of the industry as there are no jobs unless you work for a big company.
It does upset me to see the change in the coastal towns. As people have
moved out of the fishing industry, the coastal communities are not what
they once were. I used to enjoy the local fishing festival, but there
are not enough fishers to run it any more. Still… the way the
company does things is very efficient and production continues to
increase. Perhaps we should start a new festival, a festival of
mariculture.
Citizen 3 – Kei, village chief and retired
fisher
We are all in the main building tonight. The last storm destroyed many
houses. As terrible as the storm was, it was a joy to have the community
together again to cook. We don’t all come together every night to eat
like we used to. A lot of our food these days is packaged imported food,
so we tend to eat on our own. Not like the old days when we’d all sit
together and share the big fish we’d just caught, and everyone would
bring along vegetables and crops to share – all caught, grown and
prepared using traditional methods passed down through generations.
Catching our own fish on the coast has become difficult. The reefs
around here are not healthy, they have suffered from bad fishing
practices, bleaching, pollution or sedimentation from runoff. The rising
sea levels and storms haven’t helped, neither have the new developments
they keep putting in. The fish just don’t seem to be around as much
anymore, and the ocean has changed. The market vendors are saying the
same thing. They can’t seem to get their hands on fresh local fish at
the moment. They say it’s around, but a lot is exported or is bought by
resorts for the tourists, especially the deep-bottom snappers and other
species that don’t cause ciguatera poisoning. Other countries pay to
catch the fish further off-shore, but there’s been a lot of fighting
recently. The fish have been moving and our borders are being crossed by
new boats ready to take what they can. In the past the government wasn’t
focussed on what was happening to the fisheries on the coast. Now they
see we need better coastal monitoring and management, and more support
for the domestic sector to adapt to all the changes. They tried to help
traders get fish to markets quicker, for better fish safety and quality,
and they tried to work with other countries to set up mariculture here.
But it seems the ocean has changed too fast and we are all racing to
keep up now. The subsistence fishers have really struggled. I hope it’s
not too late to turn things around and get our wild fish back on the
coast.
Scenario 2 - Food for all (More sustainable 2030)
pathways and
actions
The more sustainable ‘Food for all’ scenario described below, together
with the pathways for change, were developed to move beyond the
‘Business-as-usual’ scenario by addressing the factors limiting the
contribution of seafood to food and nutrition security outlined in Table
1 and S1. This vision for a more sustainable 2030 is described through
five key pathways of actions, in addition to effective governance, aimed
at facilitating seafood for all. The Food for all scenario is
illustrated through narratives, which have been linked back to the
characters from the Business-as-usual scenario and to the five pathways.