Business-as-usual 2030 scenario – Food for some

Based on the key characteristics of the six drivers identified, we identified 84 unique evidence-based outcomes anticipated to occur in the next decade (Table S1) under a Business-as-usual scenario. These anticipated outcomes were then used by the co-authors to frame three narratives based on co-authors perspectives and expertise, and grounded in the literature, to present the scenario. The three narratives were created to reflect the varied ways in which the future, under current ongoing trajectories, might be experienced by different people. This reflection included  rural and natural resource‐based communities that are often overlooked in mainstream conceptualisations of sustainable development (Lowery et al. 2020). The use of narratives allowed the co-authors to explore and envisage how the drivers might shape the future in 2030 in different contexts, without being overwhelmed by dystopian visions of irreversible environmental degradation and societal collapse that have tended to dominate other future scenario work (Bennett et al. 2016; Raudsepp-Hearne et al. 2019). This narrative approach has previously been shown to be a valuable communication technique for comparing and evaluating science policy contexts (Dahlstrom and Ho 2012; Merrie et al. 2018; Olson 2015). However, we recognise that this approach is limited by the lived and academic experience of the author group and that not all aspects of future food and nutrition security can be represented in one narrative, or in one research paper.

More sustainable 2030 scenario, pathways and actions – Food for all

A ‘More sustainable 2030’ scenario was developed to address the limitations to seafood contributing to food and nutrition security raised through the Business-as-usual scenario, and move beyond this anticipated future. The alternative 2030 is intended to be consistent with the EAT–Lancet strategies for transforming food systems to be more sustainable and equitable (Willett et al. 2019) as well as the objectives outlined in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (United Nations 2015), in particular those classified as integral (SDGs 2, 3, 12 and 14) and closely associated (SDGs 1, 5, 8, 10, 13, 15, 16 & 17) to food and nutrition security and seafood (Table S2). While we note that all SDGs and targets can be linked to food and nutrition security and oceans (Blanchard et al. 2017; Hambrey 2017; Rockström and Sukhdev 2019; Singh et al. 2018), some are arguably more closely associated than others (e.g. Nippon Foundation 2017), and that these can be identified to help target key actions to deliver change. The identification of key relevant SDGs, involved a qualitative classification of all SDGs as either integral, closely associated, or peripherally linked to the challenge identified. This process occurred via internal group discussion and consensus by all co-authors. To develop the scenario, the authors identified five areas or pathways for change and actions to underpin the pathways and move away from ‘Business-as-usual’ towards the ‘More sustainable’ future. The pathways and actions were developed based on authors’ expertise and knowledge of existing research and case studies. The actions were refined to account for overlap, where the same action appeared under multiple drivers, resulting in 23 key actions (Table S3). The summarised actions were then linked with pathways to demonstrate a way forward. The process of developing the scenario, pathways and actions, was iterative and aimed to identify the ‘More Sustainable’ futures that were technically feasible and capable of being accomplished over the time period 2021-2030.

Assumptions

The identification and description of drivers, actions and pathways was based on several overarching assumptions. Cross-challenge assumptions identified were general in nature and related to: (1) events that could not reasonably be anticipated within the scope of the Future Seas Key Challenges, (e.g. global-scale conflicts), (2) well-known dynamics for which we could assume current predictions would hold over the next ten years (e.g. climate change), (3) factors that are unlikely to change over the course of the Decade of Ocean Science (e.g. cessation of all fishing) (see Nash et al. in review-b this issue). Additional, challenge-specific assumptions relevant to seafood systems are available in the supplementary information. We acknowledge that our pathways and actions represent possible ways toward achieving sustainable and secure seafood systems for all in association with relevant SDGs, however, they are not the only pathways and actions that could be implemented.

Results and Discussion - Imagining the future

In this, and the following section, we outline possible future scenarios for seafood systems and food and nutrition security. We begin with the Business-as-usual 2030 scenario (section 3.1), presented from the perspective of three fictional characters. We then describe a more sustainable 2030 (section 3.2) which is conceptualised through five main pathways for change (Section 4).

Scenario 1 – Food for some (Business-as-usual 2030)

The narratives used to present the Business-as-usual scenario are intended to provide a snapshot into the lives of three fictional characters in the year 2030 as we anticipate it to be based on current evidence (see Table S1). The aim of these fictional narratives is to translate the vast amount of information available in the literature relating to our drivers, and their potential influence on seafood systems in the next decade, into more accessible personal accounts. It is hoped these personal accounts ‘bring-to-life’ the key characteristics of the drivers (Table 1 and S1) and enable the reader to actually imagine how 2030 may be experienced by different people. The characters identified have been deliberately left vague and simplistic in their behaviour. Citizen 1 represents a middle-class diner in a developed economy who is concerned about food sustainability and nutrition, and motivated by price. Citizen 2 represents a mariculture enterprise employee in Asia, where mariculture is currently projected to increase on a large-scale. Citizen 3 represents an elder living in a Small Island Developing State who has witnessed large changes in fishery resources.
Citizen 1 – Finn, ‘wellbeing’ advisor
What a busy week. My partner and I are treating ourselves to dinner out tonight. We order salmon. A steak would be good for our iron levels, but it is too expensive these days with the red meat tax. Also, fish is more sustainable than red meat and it is definitely more nutritious than the ready-to-eat fake-meat curries we’ve been having during the week, or the 3D printed fish nuggets they sell at the canteen. I scan the code on the menu and see that my fish is imported and farmed. Wild fish have been really expensive lately, maybe because there have been problems with disease outbreaks. I don’t touch seafood without a code these days, which makes a lot of products off-limits as they don’t have any information on where they come from and how they were produced. My fish isn’t local, which I would prefer as I think local is more sustainable and better quality, but it is still very fresh as it was harvested yesterday and flown directly here. I can see the drones out the window flying between the restaurant district and the airport, carrying fish and other fresh goods. I would like to catch my own fish, you can’t get better quality than that, but I don’t really know what the local fish are anymore. The species seem to have changed quite a lot in the last few years. We used to catch cod off the local pier, but it washed away last month, and with bad storms coming frequently now, there doesn’t seem to be a plan to rebuild. I check the code again for some ethical information and the details on what the fish was fed, but nothing is listed. I worry about all the microplastics in food, but the code shows that this fish has a low microplastic-content score which is good, probably from all the insects that go into animal feeds these days. I sync the salmon’s provenance data with my nutrition app and see the orange tick for my daily intake. Next time I’ll pre-order an off-shore farmed fish, fed with marine algae. It’s more expensive but it has great nutritional value. At least my fish is fresh and will be grilled. And we can add some anchovy powder on top to get the green tick for meeting my daily micronutrient requirements. Once I get the tick I think I’ll celebrate with a glass of wine.
Citizen 2 – Li, mariculture enterprise manager
The company has reached a milestone! We can grow our fish to market size in half the time it took in 2020. We are now a very high tech and large-scale operation with genetic improvement and feed formulations matched to specific fish requirements. Our management operations, vaccines and forecasting tools are also targeted to prevent disease. Currently we are only focused on the high value grouper species as we couldn’t access or afford to implement the same level of knowledge for lower value species, or overcome complex environmental problems to make Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture (IMTA) work for us. But the upside is that due to our success with grouper, we are now looking to farm other high value species, including some of the most challenging such as giant tuna. Our company is well ahead of many of our competitors and the small-scale operators who have not updated their production systems for many years. I remember when I first started we used to farm these fish on the coast, but most of our production is now either land-based, with recirculating systems, or off-shore. The pollution and extreme weather impacts on coastal farming mean it is just too expensive to farm there anymore, not to mention the difficulty to get permits or support from community groups. The company owns all the fish and the crop farms in the region, as well as the processors and feed mills. It means we can assess our efficiency along the whole supply now. We do still lose some fish, but technology and traceability makes it easier to get all the certifications and sell internationally. That’s important in some markets these days, especially some international markets where we can get a good price. There’s a lot of demand from the bigger cities, especially for higher value products, so we are doing well. We are making a lot of ready-to-eat meals. Not my favourite, but it’s what customers want. We are also servicing new markets in the smaller towns. New processing and packaging have really improved shelf life and the quality of products. Given it’s a high value product, our prices are very competitive, and so the company has become very well known. I think they are a great employer, but it is hard for smaller operators who are struggling to source feed and keep their prices low. I hear it is just as hard, or harder, for the wild fishers. Lots of them are getting out of the industry as there are no jobs unless you work for a big company. It does upset me to see the change in the coastal towns. As people have moved out of the fishing industry, the coastal communities are not what they once were. I used to enjoy the local fishing festival, but there are not enough fishers to run it any more. Still… the way the company does things is very efficient and production continues to increase. Perhaps we should start a new festival, a festival of mariculture.
Citizen 3 – Kei, village chief and retired fisher
We are all in the main building tonight. The last storm destroyed many houses. As terrible as the storm was, it was a joy to have the community together again to cook. We don’t all come together every night to eat like we used to. A lot of our food these days is packaged imported food, so we tend to eat on our own. Not like the old days when we’d all sit together and share the big fish we’d just caught, and everyone would bring along vegetables and crops to share – all caught, grown and prepared using traditional methods passed down through generations. Catching our own fish on the coast has become difficult. The reefs around here are not healthy, they have suffered from bad fishing practices, bleaching, pollution or sedimentation from runoff. The rising sea levels and storms haven’t helped, neither have the new developments they keep putting in. The fish just don’t seem to be around as much anymore, and the ocean has changed. The market vendors are saying the same thing. They can’t seem to get their hands on fresh local fish at the moment. They say it’s around, but a lot is exported or is bought by resorts for the tourists, especially the deep-bottom snappers and other species that don’t cause ciguatera poisoning. Other countries pay to catch the fish further off-shore, but there’s been a lot of fighting recently. The fish have been moving and our borders are being crossed by new boats ready to take what they can. In the past the government wasn’t focussed on what was happening to the fisheries on the coast. Now they see we need better coastal monitoring and management, and more support for the domestic sector to adapt to all the changes. They tried to help traders get fish to markets quicker, for better fish safety and quality, and they tried to work with other countries to set up mariculture here. But it seems the ocean has changed too fast and we are all racing to keep up now. The subsistence fishers have really struggled. I hope it’s not too late to turn things around and get our wild fish back on the coast.

Scenario 2 - Food for all (More sustainable 2030) pathways and actions

The more sustainable ‘Food for all’ scenario described below, together with the pathways for change, were developed to move beyond the ‘Business-as-usual’ scenario by addressing the factors limiting the contribution of seafood to food and nutrition security outlined in Table 1 and S1. This vision for a more sustainable 2030 is described through five key pathways of actions, in addition to effective governance, aimed at facilitating seafood for all. The Food for all scenario is illustrated through narratives, which have been linked back to the characters from the Business-as-usual scenario and to the five pathways.