Conclusion

This paper outlines both an anticipated, ‘Business-as-usual’, future scenario and five potential pathways to generate action to move toward a more sustainable 2030. The narrative approach used to stimulate thinking about potential futures highlight that we must prepare for an increasingly uncertain future in terms of our use of natural resources and ecosystems and ability to be both prepared and adaptable to provide a growing population with a nutritious and secure supply of seafood. While there is much to be concerned about, there are many positive actions already occurring. The extent to which we build on and implement these actions forms the main divide between our scenarios. For example, knowledge and technology are changing rapidly but their uptake and application differ within and between countries. In a more optimistic future, broader implementation of currently established or emerging technologies would be enabled as a result of better collaboration and cooperation. This collaboration would support the coproduction of knowledge, to improve food and nutrition outcomes, instead of a one directional transfer of technological information. Collaboration would also enable groups to improve and adapt their fishing and farming practices in a way that is most suitable to their specific needs.
Our scenarios explored the need for increasing seafood production to meet consumer demand, as well as meeting the needs of those who are food and nutrition insecure. Under a Business-as-usual scenario, access to seafood may be increasingly constrained by supply disruptions, however, many types of seafood will remain affordable to those able to pay for it. For less affluent consumers, access to good quality seafood will continue to be limited. Improving this situation will require identifying and prioritising actions to increase availability and accessibility of quality seafood, as well as maintaining access to the coast for those who rely on wild capture fisheries or small-scale mariculture for food.
Sustainable and flexible fisheries management and integrated frameworks that cover all ocean users and recognise cultural values will be key to ensuring effective strategic planning across sectors. Wild systems will compete with mariculture production, and other sectors of the emerging ‘blue economy’ for access to near shore areas. The Business-as-usual scenario will see management struggling to meet multiple goals across environmental, economic and social priorities, and ongoing inequitable sharing of benefits. In a more sustainable future, where targets for oceans and food are aligned within policy and management, there is scope for inequality to be reduced and for the seafood harvested to make the maximum contribution to human nutrition and well-being with minimal impact.

References

Allison EH (2011) Aquaculture, fisheries, poverty and food security vol Working Paper 2011-65. WorldFish,
Allison EH et al. (2020) The Human Relationship with Our Ocean Planet
Alonso-Población E, Siar SV (2018) Women’s participation and leadership in fisherfolk organizations and collective action in fisheries: a review of evidence on enablers, drivers and barriers. Rome, FAO.
Bai X et al. (2016) Plausible and desirable futures in the Anthropocene: A new research agenda Global Environmental Change 39:351-362
Barange M (2019) Global fishing sustainability challenges and successes. Paper presented at the International Symposium on Fisheries Sustainability, Rome, 12 December 2019
Bell JD et al. (2015) Diversifying the use of tuna to improve food security and public health in Pacific Island countries and territories Marine Policy 51:584-591
Belton B, Reardon T, Zilberman D (2020) Sustainable commoditization of seafood Nature Sustainability:1-8
Béné C, Barange M, Subasinghe R, Pinstrup-Andersen P, Merino G, Hemre G-I, Williams M (2015) Feeding 9 billion by 2050 – Putting fish back on the menu Food Security 7:1-14 doi:10.1007/s12571-015-0427-z
Bennett A, Patil P, Kleisner K, Rader D, JohnVirdin J, Basurto X (2018) Contribution of Fisheries to Food and Nutrition Security: Current Knowledge, Policy, and Research.
Bennett EM et al. (2016) Bright spots: seeds of a good Anthropocene Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 14:441-448
Blanchard JL et al. (2017) Linked sustainability challenges and trade-offs among fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture Nature Ecology & Evolution 1:1240
Bogard JR, Farmery A, Little D, Fulton EA, Cook M (2019a) Will fish be part of future healthy and sustainable diets? The Lancet Planetary Health 3:e159-e160
Bogard JR, Farmery AK, Baird DL, Hendrie GA, Zhou S (2019b) Linking production and consumption: The role for fish and seafood in a healthy and sustainable Australian diet Nutrients 11:1766
Borrini-Feyerabend G, Campese J (2017) Self-Strengthening ICCAs – Guidance on a process and resources for custodian indigenous peoples and local communities vol draft for use by GSI partners. The ICCA Consortium,
Buck BH, Troell MF, Krause G, Angel D, Grote B, Chopin T (2018) State of the art and challenges for offshore integrated multi-trophic aquaculture (IMTA) Frontiers in Marine Science 5:165
Butcher H, Burkhart S, Paul N, Tiitii U, Tamuera K, Eria T, Swanepoel L (2020) Role of Seaweed in Diets of Samoa and Kiribati: Exploring Key Motivators for Consumption Sustainability 12:7356
CAUL (2015) Indigenous Engagement and Participation Strategy. The Clean Air and Urban Landscapes Hub, National Environmental Science Programme,
Chen X et al. (2017) A novel combined recirculating treatment system for intensive marine aquaculture Aquaculture research 48:5062-5071
Cisneros-Montemayor AM, Pauly D, Weatherdon LV, Ota Y (2016) A global estimate of seafood consumption by coastal indigenous peoples PLoS One 11:e0166681
Cohen P et al. (2019) Securing a just space for small-scale fisheries in the blue economy Frontiers in Marine Science 6:171
Cohen PJ, Foale SJ (2013) Sustaining small-scale fisheries with periodically harvested marine reserves Marine Policy 37:278-287
Costello C et al. (2020) The future of food from the sea Nature doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2616-y
Costello C et al. (2016) Global fishery prospects under contrasting management regimes Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113:5125-5129 doi:10.1073/pnas.1520420113
Cottier-Cook E et al. (2016) Safeguarding the future of the global seaweed aquaculture industry United Nations University (INWEH) and Scottish Association for Marine Science Policy Brief:12
Crawford MA, Broadhurst CL (2012) The role of docosahexaenoic and the marine food web as determinants of evolution and hominid brain development: the challenge for human sustainability Nutrition and health 21:17-39
Dahlstrom MF, Ho SS (2012) Ethical considerations of using narrative to communicate science Science Communication 34:592-617
Dutra LX et al. (2019) Governance mapping: A framework for assessing the adaptive capacity of marine resource governance to environmental change Marine Policy
Eriksson H et al. (2016) An ecosystem approach to small-scale fisheries through participatory diagnosis in four tropical countries Global Environmental Change 36:56-66 doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.11.005
Eriksson H, Troell M, Brugere C, Chadag M, Phillips M, Andrew N (2018) Equitable mariculture: A diagnostic framework for equitable mariculture development in the Western Indian Ocean
Evans LS, Hicks CC, Fidelman P, Tobin RC, Perry AL (2013) Future Scenarios as a Research Tool: Investigating Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation Options and Outcomes for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia Human Ecology 41:841-857 doi:10.1007/s10745-013-9601-0
FAO (2009) How to Feed the World in 2050.
FAO (2015) Voluntary Guidelines for Securing Sustainable Small-Scale Fisheries in the Context of Food Security and Poverty Eradication. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome
FAO (2018) The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2018 - Meeting the sustainable development goals. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome
FAO (2020a) How is COVID-19 affecting the fisheries and aquaculture food systems. Rome. doi:https://doi.org/10.4060/ca8637en
FAO (2020b) Nutrient content of fish powder from low value fish and fish byproducts. FAO. https://csirspace.foodresearchgh.site/handle/123456789/1135. Accessed 6 October 2020
Farmery A et al. (in review) Blind spots in the Blue Economy risk limiting contributions to food and nutrition One Earth
Farmery AK, Gardner C, Jennings S, Green BS, Watson RA (2017) Assessing the inclusion of seafood in the sustainable diet literature Fish and Fisheries 18:607-618
Farrell P et al. (2020) COVID-19 and Pacific food system resilience: opportunities to build a robust response Food Security:1-9
Gaines SD et al. (2018) Improved fisheries management could offset many negative effects of climate change Science Advances 4:eaao1378 doi:10.1126/sciadv.aao1378
Gentry RR et al. (2017) Mapping the global potential for marine aquaculture Nature Ecology & Evolution 1:1317
Gephart JA et al. (2020) Scenarios for global aquaculture and its role in human nutrition Reviews in Fisheries Science & Aquaculture:1-17
Global Panel (2020) Future Food Systems: For people, our planet, and prosperity. Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition, London, UK
Godwin SE, Morrison RN, Knowles G, Cornish MC, Hayes D, Carson J (2020) Pilchard orthomyxovirus (POMV). II. Causative agent of salmon orthomyxoviral necrosis, a new disease of farmed Atlantic salmon Salmo salar. Diseases of Aquatic Organisms in press
Gokoglu N (2019) Innovations in Seafood Packaging Technologies: A Review Food Reviews International:1-27 doi:10.1080/87559129.2019.1649689
Golden C et al. (2016) Fall in fish catch threatens human health Nature 534:317-320
Groesbeck AS, Rowell K, Lepofsky D, Salomon AK (2014) Ancient clam gardens increased shellfish production: adaptive strategies from the past can inform food security today PloS one 9
Hambrey J (2017) The 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals: The challenge for aquaculture development and management FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Circular
Hayward C, Svane I, Lachimpadi S, Itoh N, Bott N, Nowak B (2011) Sea lice infections of wild fishes near ranched southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) in South Australia Aquaculture 320:178-182
Hicks CC et al. (2019) Harnessing global fisheries to tackle micronutrient deficiencies Nature 574:95-98
Hilborn R et al. (2020) Effective fisheries management instrumental in improving fish stock status Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Hiriart-Bertrand L, Silva JA, Gelcich S (2020) Challenges and opportunities of implementing the marine and coastal areas for indigenous peoples policy in Chile Ocean & Coastal Management 193:105233
HLPE (2014a) Food losses and waste in the context of sustainable food systems. A report by the High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition of the Committee on World Food Security. Rome
HLPE (2014b) Sustainable fisheries and aquaculture for food security and nutrition. A report by the High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition of the Committee on World Food Security, Rome 2014.
Hoegh-Guldberg O et al. (2019) The Ocean as a Solution to Climate Change: Five Opportunities for Action. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC
Hua K et al. (2019) The Future of Aquatic Protein: Implications for Protein Sources in Aquaculture Diets One Earth 1:316-329
Imagine a world (2020) Imagine a world without hunger, then make it happen with systems thinking. Feeding the world involves tackling all aspects of the food system (Editorial) Nature 577:293-294 doi:10.1038/d41586-020-00086-5
IPBES (2019) Global assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. . IPBES secretariat, , Bonn, Germany
IPCC (2019) IPCC Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Land Management, Food Security, and Greenhouse gas fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva
Jackley J, Gardner L, Djunaedi AF, Salomon AK (2016) Ancient clam gardens, traditional management portfolios, and the resilience of coupled human-ocean systems Ecology and Society 21
Johnson DS, Acott TG, Stacey N, Urquhart J (2018) Social wellbeing and the values of small-scale fisheries. Springer,
Kelly R, K. et al. (in press) Connected to the oceans: supporting ocean literacy and public engagement Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries. DOI:10.1007/s11160-020-09616-w
Lowery B, Dagevos J, Chuenpagdee R, Vodden K (2020) Storytelling for sustainable development in rural communities: An alternative approach Sustain Dev
Mahon R, Fanning L (2019) Regional ocean governance: Polycentric arrangements and their role in global ocean governance Marine Policy 107:103590
Mangi SC, Dolder PJ, Catchpole TL, Rodmell D, de Rozarieux N (2015) Approaches to fully documented fisheries: practical issues and stakeholder perceptions Fish and Fisheries 16:426-452
Marean CW et al. (2007) Early human use of marine resources and pigment in South Africa during the Middle Pleistocene Nature 449:905 doi:10.1038/nature06204
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature06204#supplementary-information
McClean N, Barclay K, Fabinyi M, Adhuri D, Sulu R, Indrabudi T (2019) Assessing tuna fisheries governance for community wellbeing: case studies from Indonesia and Solomon Islands. University of Technology Sydney, Sydney
Merrie A, Keys P, Metian M, Österblom H (2018) Radical ocean futures-scenario development using science fiction prototyping Futures 95:22-32
Moxness Reksten A et al. (2020) Sampling protocol for the determination of nutrients and contaminants in fish and other seafood – The EAF-Nansen Programme MethodsX 7:101063 doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mex.2020.101063
Nash K et al. (in review-a) Oceans and society: feedbacks between ocean and human health Authorea. October 02, 2020. DOI: 10.22541/au.160166568.89566317
Nash KL, Alexander K, Melbourne-Thomas J, Novioaglio C, Sbrocchi C, Villanueva C, Pecl GT (in review-b) Developing Achievable Alternate Futures for Key Challenges during the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development Authorea. October 02, 2020. DOI: 10.22541/au.160166561.14686672
Nature (2020) Sustainable solutions to end hunger. Nature. https://www.nature.com/collections/dhiggjeagd. Accessed 19 October 2020
Neudorf CM, Smith N, Lepofsky D, Toniello G, Lian OB (2017) Between a rock and a soft place: Using optical ages to date ancient clam gardens on the Pacific Northwest PloS one 12
Nippon Foundation (2017) Oceans and Sustainable Development Goals: Co-benefit, Climate Change and Social Equity. Vancouver
Norström AV et al. (2020) Principles for knowledge co-production in sustainability research Nature Sustainability doi:10.1038/s41893-019-0448-2
Olson R (2015) Houston, we have a narrative: why science needs story. University of Chicago Press,
Österblom H, Jouffray J-B, Folke C, Rockström J (2017) Emergence of a global science–business initiative for ocean stewardship Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114:9038-9043
Österblom H, Wabnitz CCC, Tladi D (2020) Towards Ocean Equity. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC
Packer H, Swartz W, Ota Y, Bailey M (2019) Corporate social responsibility (CSR) practices of the largest seafood suppliers in the wild capture fisheries sector: From vision to action Sustainability 11:2254
Papargyropoulou E, Lozano R, Steinberger JK, Wright N, bin Ujang Z (2014) The food waste hierarchy as a framework for the management of food surplus and food waste Journal of Cleaner Production 76:106-115 doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.04.020
Pecl GT et al. (in review) Transforming our oceans for the future we want Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries This issue
Porter ME, Kramer MR (2019) Creating Shared Value. In: Lenssen GG, Smith NC (eds) Managing Sustainable Business: An Executive Education Case and Textbook. Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, pp 323-346. doi:10.1007/978-94-024-1144-7_16
Posner SM, Cvitanovic C (2019) Evaluating the impacts of boundary-spanning activities at the interface of environmental science and policy: A review of progress and future research needs Environmental science & policy 92:141-151
Raudsepp-Hearne C et al. (2019) Seeds of good anthropocenes: developing sustainability scenarios for Northern Europe Sustainability Science doi:10.1007/s11625-019-00714-8
Rockström J, Sukhdev P (2019) How food connects all the SDGs. Stockholm Resilience Centre. https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/research-news/2016-06-14-how-food-connects-all-the-sdgs.html. Accessed 15/12/2019 2019
Rudolph TB, Ruckelshaus M, Swilling M, Allison EH, Österblom H, Gelcich S, Mbatha P (2020) A transition to sustainable ocean governance Nature communications 11:1-14
Sachs JD, Schmidt-Traub G, Mazzucato M, Messner D, Nakicenovic N, Rockström J (2019) Six Transformations to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals Nature Sustainability:1-10
Sale PF et al. (2014) Transforming management of tropical coastal seas to cope with challenges of the 21st century Marine Pollution Bulletin 85:8-23
Schubel JR, Thompson K (2019) Farming the Sea: The Only Way to Meet Humanity’s Future Food Needs GeoHealth 3:238-244 doi:10.1029/2019gh000204
Singh GG et al. (2018) A rapid assessment of co-benefits and trade-offs among Sustainable Development Goals Marine Policy 93:223-231 doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2017.05.030
Smith DC et al. (2017) Implementing marine ecosystem-based management: lessons from Australia Ices Journal of Marine Science 74:1990-2003 doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsx113
Stentiford GD et al. (2020) Sustainable aquaculture through the One Health lens Nature Food 1:468-474 doi:10.1038/s43016-020-0127-5
Stoll JS, Bailey M, Jonell M (2019) Alternative pathways to sustainable seafood Conservation Letters n/a:e12683 doi:10.1111/conl.12683
Swanepoel L, Tioti T, Eria T, Tamuera K, Tiitii U, Larson S, Paul N (2020) Supporting Women’s Participation in Developing A Seaweed Supply Chain in Kiribati for Health and Nutrition Foods 9:382
Swedbio, ACIAR (2020) Enhancing livelihoods while governing marine resources in Pacific Island countries. WorldFIsh. https://worldfish.exposure.co/ingredients-for-success. Accessed 6 October 2020
Tacon AGJ, Hasan M, Metian M (2011) Demand and Supply of Feed Ingredients for Farmed Fish and Crustaceans. Rome, Italy
Taylor MD et al. (2017) Fisheries enhancement and restoration in a changing world. Elsevier,
Taylor SFW, Roberts MJ, Milligan B, Ncwadi R (2019) Measurement and implications of marine food security in the Western Indian Ocean: an impending crisis? Food Security 11:1395-1415 doi:10.1007/s12571-019-00971-6
Tezzo X, Bush SR, Oosterveer P, Belton B (2020) Food system perspective on fisheries and aquaculture development in Asia Agriculture and Human Values doi:10.1007/s10460-020-10037-5
Thilsted SH, Thorne-Lyman A, Webb P, Bogard JR, Subasinghe R, Phillips MJ, Allison EH (2016) Sustaining healthy diets: The role of capture fisheries and aquaculture for improving nutrition in the post-2015 era Food Policy:126-131
United Nations (2015) Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. United Nations Resolution A. RES/70/1. New York,
van Putten I, Koopman M, Fleming A, Hobday AJ, Knuckey I, Zhou S (2019) Fresh eyes on an old issue: Demand-side barriers to a discard problem Fisheries Research 209:14-23 doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2018.09.007
Weirowski F, Hall SJ (2008) Public-private partnerships for fisheries and aquaculture: getting started. The WorldFish Center, Penang, Malaysia
Willett W et al. (2019) Food in the Anthropocene: the EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems The Lancet
World Bank (2013) Fish to 2030: Prospects for Fisheries and Aquaculture. World Bank Report Number 83177-GLB. Washington DC
Young MA (2017) Energy transitions and trade law: lessons from the reform of fisheries subsidies International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics 17:371-390 doi:10.1007/s10784-017-9360-2
Zhou S et al. (2010) Ecosystem-based fisheries management requires a change to the selective fishing philosophy Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107:9485-9489 doi:10.1073/pnas.0912771107