Conclusion
This paper outlines both an anticipated, ‘Business-as-usual’, future
scenario and five potential pathways to generate action to move toward a
more sustainable 2030. The narrative approach used to stimulate thinking
about potential futures highlight that we must prepare for an
increasingly uncertain future in terms of our use of natural resources
and ecosystems and ability to be both prepared and adaptable to provide
a growing population with a nutritious and secure supply of seafood.
While there is much to be concerned about, there are many positive
actions already occurring. The extent to which we build on and implement
these actions forms the main divide between our scenarios. For example,
knowledge and technology are changing rapidly but their uptake and
application differ within and between countries. In a more optimistic
future, broader implementation of currently established or emerging
technologies would be enabled as a result of better collaboration and
cooperation. This collaboration would support the coproduction of
knowledge, to improve food and nutrition outcomes, instead of a one
directional transfer of technological information. Collaboration would
also enable groups to improve and adapt their fishing and farming
practices in a way that is most suitable to their specific needs.
Our scenarios explored the need for increasing seafood production to
meet consumer demand, as well as meeting the needs of those who are food
and nutrition insecure. Under a Business-as-usual scenario, access to
seafood may be increasingly constrained by supply disruptions, however,
many types of seafood will remain affordable to those able to pay for
it. For less affluent consumers, access to good quality seafood will
continue to be limited. Improving this situation will require
identifying and prioritising actions to increase availability and
accessibility of quality seafood, as well as maintaining access to the
coast for those who rely on wild capture fisheries or small-scale
mariculture for food.
Sustainable and flexible fisheries management and integrated frameworks
that cover all ocean users and recognise cultural values will be key to
ensuring effective strategic planning across sectors. Wild systems will
compete with mariculture production, and other sectors of the emerging
‘blue economy’ for access to near shore areas. The Business-as-usual
scenario will see management struggling to meet multiple goals across
environmental, economic and social priorities, and ongoing inequitable
sharing of benefits. In a more sustainable future, where targets for
oceans and food are aligned within policy and management, there is scope
for inequality to be reduced and for the seafood harvested to make the
maximum contribution to human nutrition and well-being with minimal
impact.
References
Allison EH (2011) Aquaculture, fisheries, poverty and food security vol
Working Paper 2011-65. WorldFish,
Allison EH et al. (2020) The Human Relationship with Our Ocean Planet
Alonso-Población E, Siar SV (2018) Women’s participation and leadership
in fisherfolk organizations and collective action in fisheries: a review
of evidence on enablers, drivers and barriers. Rome, FAO.
Bai X et al. (2016) Plausible and desirable futures in the Anthropocene:
A new research agenda Global Environmental Change 39:351-362
Barange M (2019) Global fishing sustainability challenges and successes.
Paper presented at the International Symposium on Fisheries
Sustainability, Rome, 12 December 2019
Bell JD et al. (2015) Diversifying the use of tuna to improve food
security and public health in Pacific Island countries and territories
Marine Policy 51:584-591
Belton B, Reardon T, Zilberman D (2020) Sustainable commoditization of
seafood Nature Sustainability:1-8
Béné C, Barange M, Subasinghe R, Pinstrup-Andersen P, Merino G, Hemre
G-I, Williams M (2015) Feeding 9 billion by 2050 – Putting fish back on
the menu Food Security 7:1-14 doi:10.1007/s12571-015-0427-z
Bennett A, Patil P, Kleisner K, Rader D, JohnVirdin J, Basurto X (2018)
Contribution of Fisheries to Food and Nutrition Security: Current
Knowledge, Policy, and Research.
Bennett EM et al. (2016) Bright spots: seeds of a good Anthropocene
Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 14:441-448
Blanchard JL et al. (2017) Linked sustainability challenges and
trade-offs among fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture Nature Ecology
& Evolution 1:1240
Bogard JR, Farmery A, Little D, Fulton EA, Cook M (2019a) Will fish be
part of future healthy and sustainable diets? The Lancet Planetary
Health 3:e159-e160
Bogard JR, Farmery AK, Baird DL, Hendrie GA, Zhou S (2019b) Linking
production and consumption: The role for fish and seafood in a healthy
and sustainable Australian diet Nutrients 11:1766
Borrini-Feyerabend G, Campese J (2017) Self-Strengthening ICCAs –
Guidance on a process and resources for custodian indigenous peoples and
local communities vol draft for use by GSI partners. The ICCA
Consortium,
Buck BH, Troell MF, Krause G, Angel D, Grote B, Chopin T (2018) State of
the art and challenges for offshore integrated multi-trophic aquaculture
(IMTA) Frontiers in Marine Science 5:165
Butcher H, Burkhart S, Paul N, Tiitii U, Tamuera K, Eria T, Swanepoel L
(2020) Role of Seaweed in Diets of Samoa and Kiribati: Exploring Key
Motivators for Consumption Sustainability 12:7356
CAUL (2015) Indigenous Engagement and Participation Strategy. The Clean
Air and Urban Landscapes Hub, National Environmental Science Programme,
Chen X et al. (2017) A novel combined recirculating treatment system for
intensive marine aquaculture Aquaculture research 48:5062-5071
Cisneros-Montemayor AM, Pauly D, Weatherdon LV, Ota Y (2016) A global
estimate of seafood consumption by coastal indigenous peoples PLoS One
11:e0166681
Cohen P et al. (2019) Securing a just space for small-scale fisheries in
the blue economy Frontiers in Marine Science 6:171
Cohen PJ, Foale SJ (2013) Sustaining small-scale fisheries with
periodically harvested marine reserves Marine Policy 37:278-287
Costello C et al. (2020) The future of food from the sea Nature
doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2616-y
Costello C et al. (2016) Global fishery prospects under contrasting
management regimes Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
113:5125-5129 doi:10.1073/pnas.1520420113
Cottier-Cook E et al. (2016) Safeguarding the future of the global
seaweed aquaculture industry United Nations University (INWEH) and
Scottish Association for Marine Science Policy Brief:12
Crawford MA, Broadhurst CL (2012) The role of docosahexaenoic and the
marine food web as determinants of evolution and hominid brain
development: the challenge for human sustainability Nutrition and health
21:17-39
Dahlstrom MF, Ho SS (2012) Ethical considerations of using narrative to
communicate science Science Communication 34:592-617
Dutra LX et al. (2019) Governance mapping: A framework for assessing the
adaptive capacity of marine resource governance to environmental change
Marine Policy
Eriksson H et al. (2016) An ecosystem approach to small-scale fisheries
through participatory diagnosis in four tropical countries Global
Environmental Change 36:56-66
doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.11.005
Eriksson H, Troell M, Brugere C, Chadag M, Phillips M, Andrew N (2018)
Equitable mariculture: A diagnostic framework for equitable mariculture
development in the Western Indian Ocean
Evans LS, Hicks CC, Fidelman P, Tobin RC, Perry AL (2013) Future
Scenarios as a Research Tool: Investigating Climate Change Impacts,
Adaptation Options and Outcomes for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia
Human Ecology 41:841-857 doi:10.1007/s10745-013-9601-0
FAO (2009) How to Feed the World in 2050.
FAO (2015) Voluntary Guidelines for Securing Sustainable Small-Scale
Fisheries in the Context of Food Security and Poverty Eradication. Food
and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome
FAO (2018) The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2018 - Meeting
the sustainable development goals. Food and Agriculture Organization of
the United Nations, Rome
FAO (2020a) How is COVID-19 affecting the fisheries and aquaculture food
systems. Rome. doi:https://doi.org/10.4060/ca8637en
FAO (2020b) Nutrient content of fish powder from low value fish and fish
byproducts. FAO.
https://csirspace.foodresearchgh.site/handle/123456789/1135.
Accessed 6 October 2020
Farmery A et al. (in review) Blind spots in the Blue Economy risk
limiting contributions to food and nutrition One Earth
Farmery AK, Gardner C, Jennings S, Green BS, Watson RA (2017) Assessing
the inclusion of seafood in the sustainable diet literature Fish and
Fisheries 18:607-618
Farrell P et al. (2020) COVID-19 and Pacific food system resilience:
opportunities to build a robust response Food Security:1-9
Gaines SD et al. (2018) Improved fisheries management could offset many
negative effects of climate change Science Advances 4:eaao1378
doi:10.1126/sciadv.aao1378
Gentry RR et al. (2017) Mapping the global potential for marine
aquaculture Nature Ecology & Evolution 1:1317
Gephart JA et al. (2020) Scenarios for global aquaculture and its role
in human nutrition Reviews in Fisheries Science & Aquaculture:1-17
Global Panel (2020) Future Food Systems: For people, our planet, and
prosperity. Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition,
London, UK
Godwin SE, Morrison RN, Knowles G, Cornish MC, Hayes D, Carson J (2020)
Pilchard orthomyxovirus (POMV). II. Causative agent of salmon
orthomyxoviral necrosis, a new disease of farmed Atlantic salmon Salmo
salar. Diseases of Aquatic Organisms in press
Gokoglu N (2019) Innovations in Seafood Packaging Technologies: A Review
Food Reviews International:1-27 doi:10.1080/87559129.2019.1649689
Golden C et al. (2016) Fall in fish catch threatens human health Nature
534:317-320
Groesbeck AS, Rowell K, Lepofsky D, Salomon AK (2014) Ancient clam
gardens increased shellfish production: adaptive strategies from the
past can inform food security today PloS one 9
Hambrey J (2017) The 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals:
The challenge for aquaculture development and management FAO Fisheries
and Aquaculture Circular
Hayward C, Svane I, Lachimpadi S, Itoh N, Bott N, Nowak B (2011) Sea
lice infections of wild fishes near ranched southern bluefin tuna
(Thunnus maccoyii) in South Australia Aquaculture 320:178-182
Hicks CC et al. (2019) Harnessing global fisheries to tackle
micronutrient deficiencies Nature 574:95-98
Hilborn R et al. (2020) Effective fisheries management instrumental in
improving fish stock status Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences
Hiriart-Bertrand L, Silva JA, Gelcich S (2020) Challenges and
opportunities of implementing the marine and coastal areas for
indigenous peoples policy in Chile Ocean & Coastal Management
193:105233
HLPE (2014a) Food losses and waste in the context of sustainable food
systems. A report by the High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security
and Nutrition of the Committee on World Food Security. Rome
HLPE (2014b) Sustainable fisheries and aquaculture for food security and
nutrition. A report by the High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security
and Nutrition of the Committee on World Food Security, Rome 2014.
Hoegh-Guldberg O et al. (2019) The Ocean as a Solution to Climate
Change: Five Opportunities for Action. World Resources Institute,
Washington, DC
Hua K et al. (2019) The Future of Aquatic Protein: Implications for
Protein Sources in Aquaculture Diets One Earth 1:316-329
Imagine a world (2020) Imagine a world without hunger, then make it
happen with systems thinking. Feeding the world involves tackling all
aspects of the food system (Editorial) Nature 577:293-294
doi:10.1038/d41586-020-00086-5
IPBES (2019) Global assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem
services of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on
Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. . IPBES secretariat, , Bonn,
Germany
IPCC (2019) IPCC Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land
Degradation, Sustainable Land Management, Food Security, and Greenhouse
gas fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, Geneva
Jackley J, Gardner L, Djunaedi AF, Salomon AK (2016) Ancient clam
gardens, traditional management portfolios, and the resilience of
coupled human-ocean systems Ecology and Society 21
Johnson DS, Acott TG, Stacey N, Urquhart J (2018) Social wellbeing and
the values of small-scale fisheries. Springer,
Kelly R, K. et al. (in press) Connected to the oceans: supporting ocean
literacy and public engagement Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries. DOI:10.1007/s11160-020-09616-w
Lowery B, Dagevos J, Chuenpagdee R, Vodden K (2020) Storytelling for
sustainable development in rural communities: An alternative approach
Sustain Dev
Mahon R, Fanning L (2019) Regional ocean governance: Polycentric
arrangements and their role in global ocean governance Marine Policy
107:103590
Mangi SC, Dolder PJ, Catchpole TL, Rodmell D, de Rozarieux N (2015)
Approaches to fully documented fisheries: practical issues and
stakeholder perceptions Fish and Fisheries 16:426-452
Marean CW et al. (2007) Early human use of marine resources and pigment
in South Africa during the Middle Pleistocene Nature 449:905
doi:10.1038/nature06204
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature06204#supplementary-information
McClean N, Barclay K, Fabinyi M, Adhuri D, Sulu R, Indrabudi T (2019)
Assessing tuna fisheries governance for community wellbeing: case
studies from Indonesia and Solomon Islands. University of Technology
Sydney, Sydney
Merrie A, Keys P, Metian M, Österblom H (2018) Radical ocean
futures-scenario development using science fiction prototyping Futures
95:22-32
Moxness Reksten A et al. (2020) Sampling protocol for the determination
of nutrients and contaminants in fish and other seafood – The
EAF-Nansen Programme MethodsX 7:101063
doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mex.2020.101063
Nash K et al. (in review-a) Oceans and society: feedbacks between ocean
and human health Authorea. October 02, 2020. DOI: 10.22541/au.160166568.89566317
Nash KL, Alexander K, Melbourne-Thomas J, Novioaglio C, Sbrocchi C,
Villanueva C, Pecl GT (in review-b) Developing Achievable Alternate
Futures for Key Challenges during the UN Decade of Ocean Science for
Sustainable Development Authorea. October 02, 2020. DOI: 10.22541/au.160166561.14686672
Nature (2020) Sustainable solutions to end hunger. Nature.
https://www.nature.com/collections/dhiggjeagd. Accessed 19 October
2020
Neudorf CM, Smith N, Lepofsky D, Toniello G, Lian OB (2017) Between a
rock and a soft place: Using optical ages to date ancient clam gardens
on the Pacific Northwest PloS one 12
Nippon Foundation (2017) Oceans and Sustainable Development Goals:
Co-benefit, Climate Change and Social Equity. Vancouver
Norström AV et al. (2020) Principles for knowledge co-production in
sustainability research Nature Sustainability
doi:10.1038/s41893-019-0448-2
Olson R (2015) Houston, we have a narrative: why science needs story.
University of Chicago Press,
Österblom H, Jouffray J-B, Folke C, Rockström J (2017) Emergence of a
global science–business initiative for ocean stewardship Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences 114:9038-9043
Österblom H, Wabnitz CCC, Tladi D (2020) Towards Ocean Equity. World
Resources Institute, Washington, DC
Packer H, Swartz W, Ota Y, Bailey M (2019) Corporate social
responsibility (CSR) practices of the largest seafood suppliers in the
wild capture fisheries sector: From vision to action Sustainability
11:2254
Papargyropoulou E, Lozano R, Steinberger JK, Wright N, bin Ujang Z
(2014) The food waste hierarchy as a framework for the management of
food surplus and food waste Journal of Cleaner Production 76:106-115
doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.04.020
Pecl GT et al. (in review) Transforming our oceans for the future we
want Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries This issue
Porter ME, Kramer MR (2019) Creating Shared Value. In: Lenssen GG, Smith
NC (eds) Managing Sustainable Business: An Executive Education Case and
Textbook. Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, pp 323-346.
doi:10.1007/978-94-024-1144-7_16
Posner SM, Cvitanovic C (2019) Evaluating the impacts of
boundary-spanning activities at the interface of environmental science
and policy: A review of progress and future research needs Environmental
science & policy 92:141-151
Raudsepp-Hearne C et al. (2019) Seeds of good anthropocenes: developing
sustainability scenarios for Northern Europe Sustainability Science
doi:10.1007/s11625-019-00714-8
Rockström J, Sukhdev P (2019) How food connects all the SDGs. Stockholm
Resilience Centre.
https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/research-news/2016-06-14-how-food-connects-all-the-sdgs.html.
Accessed 15/12/2019 2019
Rudolph TB, Ruckelshaus M, Swilling M, Allison EH, Österblom H, Gelcich
S, Mbatha P (2020) A transition to sustainable ocean governance Nature
communications 11:1-14
Sachs JD, Schmidt-Traub G, Mazzucato M, Messner D, Nakicenovic N,
Rockström J (2019) Six Transformations to achieve the Sustainable
Development Goals Nature Sustainability:1-10
Sale PF et al. (2014) Transforming management of tropical coastal seas
to cope with challenges of the 21st century Marine Pollution Bulletin
85:8-23
Schubel JR, Thompson K (2019) Farming the Sea: The Only Way to Meet
Humanity’s Future Food Needs GeoHealth 3:238-244
doi:10.1029/2019gh000204
Singh GG et al. (2018) A rapid assessment of co-benefits and trade-offs
among Sustainable Development Goals Marine Policy 93:223-231
doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2017.05.030
Smith DC et al. (2017) Implementing marine ecosystem-based management:
lessons from Australia Ices Journal of Marine Science 74:1990-2003
doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsx113
Stentiford GD et al. (2020) Sustainable aquaculture through the One
Health lens Nature Food 1:468-474 doi:10.1038/s43016-020-0127-5
Stoll JS, Bailey M, Jonell M (2019) Alternative pathways to sustainable
seafood Conservation Letters n/a:e12683 doi:10.1111/conl.12683
Swanepoel L, Tioti T, Eria T, Tamuera K, Tiitii U, Larson S, Paul N
(2020) Supporting Women’s Participation in Developing A Seaweed Supply
Chain in Kiribati for Health and Nutrition Foods 9:382
Swedbio, ACIAR (2020) Enhancing livelihoods while governing marine
resources in Pacific Island countries. WorldFIsh.
https://worldfish.exposure.co/ingredients-for-success. Accessed 6
October 2020
Tacon AGJ, Hasan M, Metian M (2011) Demand and Supply of Feed
Ingredients for Farmed Fish and Crustaceans. Rome, Italy
Taylor MD et al. (2017) Fisheries enhancement and restoration in a
changing world. Elsevier,
Taylor SFW, Roberts MJ, Milligan B, Ncwadi R (2019) Measurement and
implications of marine food security in the Western Indian Ocean: an
impending crisis? Food Security 11:1395-1415
doi:10.1007/s12571-019-00971-6
Tezzo X, Bush SR, Oosterveer P, Belton B (2020) Food system perspective
on fisheries and aquaculture development in Asia Agriculture and Human
Values doi:10.1007/s10460-020-10037-5
Thilsted SH, Thorne-Lyman A, Webb P, Bogard JR, Subasinghe R, Phillips
MJ, Allison EH (2016) Sustaining healthy diets: The role of capture
fisheries and aquaculture for improving nutrition in the post-2015 era
Food Policy:126-131
United Nations (2015) Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for
Sustainable Development. United Nations Resolution A. RES/70/1. New
York,
van Putten I, Koopman M, Fleming A, Hobday AJ, Knuckey I, Zhou S (2019)
Fresh eyes on an old issue: Demand-side barriers to a discard problem
Fisheries Research 209:14-23
doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2018.09.007
Weirowski F, Hall SJ (2008) Public-private partnerships for fisheries
and aquaculture: getting started. The WorldFish Center, Penang, Malaysia
Willett W et al. (2019) Food in the Anthropocene: the EAT–Lancet
Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems The Lancet
World Bank (2013) Fish to 2030: Prospects for Fisheries and Aquaculture.
World Bank Report Number 83177-GLB. Washington DC
Young MA (2017) Energy transitions and trade law: lessons from the
reform of fisheries subsidies International Environmental Agreements:
Politics, Law and Economics 17:371-390 doi:10.1007/s10784-017-9360-2
Zhou S et al. (2010) Ecosystem-based fisheries management requires a
change to the selective fishing philosophy Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences 107:9485-9489 doi:10.1073/pnas.0912771107