Introduction
The rapid increase of reported COVID-19 cases in Germany, has prompted policymakers to announce on Oct 28, 2020 a new period of stricter control measures starting on Nov 2, 2020 [1]. As of the first day of this “shutdown light”, Germany accounts for 545,027 reported SARS-CoV-2 infections and 10,530 reported deaths [2]. The decision from Oct 28 stipulates softer measures than were applied in spring of 2020 [3]. In particular, schools maintain in person teaching, and all shops, not just grocery stores, keep their regular opening hours. The rising case and fatality numbers reported in Europe since early September [4] made people more aware of the risk of infection, but opposing opinions persevered and stimulated protests throughout the country. It is hard to quantify how the measures are going to change the course of the epidemic in Germany, as a match to the March/April shutdown is not exactly possible. Nevertheless mathematical models allow simulating different scenarios of how the November shutdown might play out and what is likely to follow under various assumptions on the policies and public behavior adopted.