Abstract
Aim : In recent studies, three species of bat,Hypsignathus monstrosus, Myonycteris torquata and Epomops
franqueti were identified as the most likely candidates to be reservoir
for Ebolavirus. To help in epidemic preparedness and surveillance,
species distribution modeling techniques are useful for predicting where
these species are likely to occur in DR Congo.
Methods : MaxEnt software was used to model the current and
future distribution of the three species in DR Congo based on the
occurrence data collected from global biodiversity information facility
and environmental covariates collected from Worldclim and USGS. The
future distribution were obtained based on two scenario (RCP4.5 and RCP
8.5) of the HadGEM2-CC an IPPC5 climate projections from global climate
models (GCMs).
Results : The suitable habitat of H. monstrosus, M.
torquata and E. franqueti are essentially located from latitude
-5° to 5° and longitude 17° to 30°. Overall, their favourable living
areas are located in the territories along the entire northern border
and the entire northern part of the eastern border of the DR Congo with
varying degrees of importance depending on the territories and species.
Three bioclimatic variables have shown to play major role in their
spread, the precipitation of the driest quarter, the precipitation of
coldest quarter and the temperature annual range. In the future, the
suitable area of these species will be decreasing and being essentially
located in the Kivu provinces. The change in the ecological niche of
these species will differ with respect to future climate scenario.
Climate of RCP 8.5 has shown to induce major decrease of their suitable
habitat in DR Congo.
Main conclusions : The MaxEnt model is potentially useful for
forecasting the future adaptive distribution of the three bat species
under climate change, and it provides important guidance for
comprehensive management of the Ebolavirus risk.
Key-words : Species distribution modeling, climate change,
Ebolavirus risk, Hypsignathus monstrosus, Myonycteris torquata,