Predicting colony distribution on Skokholm
The model predicting the largest colonies on Skomer under SW winds also performed well when applied to the island of Skokholm (Fig. 5), correctly predicting the distribution of ~ 73% of the largest colonies (eight out of eleven), and ~ 63% of unoccupied cliff sections (35 out of 56), which corresponds to ~ 80% of the total unoccupied area (60,863 m2 of 76,259 m2). Model performance, although lower than the models on Skomer, was satisfactory with an overall accuracy of 0.64 and TSS 0.35.