Conclusions
The present study demonstrated the strong parameter dependency of
temporal beta-diversity patterns on the four fundamental parameters of
the neutral model. The results of the present study caution that
macroecological studies of temporal beta diversity are challenging
without considering these four parameters in any case. Neutral dynamics
is a starting point for discussing the real drivers of temporal
beta-diversity patterns. In simulation studies, relaxing the zero-sum
and neutrality assumptions would provide more realistic patterns
comparable to empirical patterns (Jabot, 2010; Jabot & Chave, 2011;
Munoz & Huneman, 2016; Takeuchi et al., 2022). Moving forward, two
future study directions of temporal beta diversity, more generally
biodiversity changes, are recommeded. One is toward the linking of
biodiversity changes with the modern co-existence theory and other
studies focusing on species co-existence, which would pave the way for a
new field of study. For example, under variable climate conditions,
different types of storage effects, which is a kind of mechanism
facilitating species co-existence (Chesson & Warner, 1981; Chesson,
2000), would affect the apparent compositional changes; the persistence
of long-lived individuals could contribute to decreasing the change in
the short term, but the existence of buried seeds could contribute to
less variability in community composition in the long term. The other is
toward an explicit consideration of the spatial connections among the
temporal beta-diversity patterns. Macroecological studies of temporal
beta diversity often consider different sites as independent, but in
reality, close distance sites are often connected. For example, animals
move across sites and plants provide seeds to neighbouring sites (Howe
& Smallwood, 1982; Bowler & Benton, 2005). For a deeper mechanistic
understanding of temporal beta diversity, it is important to identify
the direct effects through connections from simple synchronic responses
to similar climate changes due to site closeness. Many future tasks
remain to be accomplished in the study of temporal beta diversity, which
is important in both basic and applied research.