We present the results for CAPRI Round 54, the 5th joint CASP-CAPRI protein assembly prediction challenge. The Round offered 37 targets, including 14 homo-dimers, 3 homo-trimers, 13 hetero-dimers including 3 antibody-antigen complexes, and 7 large assemblies. On average ~70 CASP and CAPRI predictor groups, including more than 20 automatics servers, submitted models for each target. A total of 21941 models submitted by these groups and by 15 CAPRI scorer groups were evaluated using the CAPRI model quality measures and the DockQ score consolidating these measures. The prediction performance was quantified by a weighted score based on the number of models of acceptable quality or higher submitted by each group among their 5 best models. Results show substantial progress achieved across a significant fraction of the 60+ participating groups. High-quality models were produced for about 40% for the targets compared to 8% two years earlier, a remarkable improvement resulting from the wide use of the AlphaFold2 and AlphaFold-Multimer software. Creative use was made of the deep learning inference engines affording the sampling of a much larger number of models and enriching the multiple sequence alignments with sequences from various sources. Wide use was also made of the AlphaFold confidence metrics to rank models, permitting top performing groups to exceed the results of the public AlphaFold-Multimer version used as a yard stick. This notwithstanding, performance remained poor for complexes with antibodies and nanobodies, where evolutionary relationships between the binding partners are lacking, and for complexes featuring conformational flexibility, clearly indicating that the prediction of protein complexes remains a challenging problem.

The goal of CASP experiments is to monitor the progress in the protein structure prediction field. During the 14th CASP edition we aimed to test our capabilities of predicting structures of protein complexes. Our protocol for modeling protein assemblies included both template-based modeling and free docking. Structural templates were identified using sensitive sequence-based searches. If sequence-based searches failed, we performed structure-based template searches using selected CASP server models. In the absence of reliable templates we applied free docking starting from monomers generated by CASP servers. We evaluated and ranked models of protein complexes using an improved version of protein structure quality assessment method, VoroMQA, taking into account both interaction interface and global structure scores. If reliable templates could be identified, generally accurate models of protein assemblies were generated with the exception of an antibody-antigen interaction. The success of free docking mainly depended on the accuracy of initial subunit models and on the scoring of docking solutions. To put our overall results in perspective, we analyzed our performance in the context of other CASP groups. Although the subunits in our assembly models often were not of the top quality, these models had, overall, the best predicted interfaces according to several protein-protein interface accuracy measures. Since we did not use co-evolution-based prediction of inter-chain contacts, we attribute our relative success in predicting interfaces primarily to the emphasis on the interaction interface when modeling and scoring.