Conclusion
While long-term observational studies of phenological responses to
climate warming are extremely valuable to understand how ongoing
phenological shifts alter species interactions, experimental approaches
combined with parameterized dynamic models can help disentangle the
roles that biotic and abiotic environmental variations play in altering
the strength and persistence of species interactions in future climatic
conditions. Our combined experimental and model simulation study showed
that the strength and persistence of species interactions are sensitive
to phenological shifts among interacting species, but to what extent
varied with community context. We found that the presence of another
host species helps promote long-term persistence of species interactions
across a range of phenological relationships, temperatures, and levels
of resource competition. Thus, the loss of biodiversity may exacerbate
these effects and its preservation should be a priority, given its
important role in maintaining species interactions in the face of
ongoing phenological shifts, increased temperatures, and changes in
other biotic environmental factors
(Foristeret al. 2019). Incorporating community contexts into future
phenological research will be critical if we are to understand and
accurately predict the consequences of phenological shifts on entire
ecological communities.