Fig 2.  Comparison of mixed-effects regression and multi-state model predictions of individual health histories from simulated survey data. Survey data: colored trajectories represent 10 randomly chosen individual histories from the total pool of trajectories. Mixed-effects: black trajectories represent 10 randomly chosen predicted individual histories from the total pool of trajectories (gray). For this, the survey data (gray dots) was modeled using a linear mixed-effect model. Multi-state model: black trajectories represent 10 randomly chosen predicted individual histories from the total pool of trajectories (gray). For this, the survey data (gray dots) was discretized into five health states and modeled using a 5 x 5 matrix population model.