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\begin{document}

\title{Warming soil temperature and increasing baseflow in response to recent
and potential future climate change across northern Manitoba, Canada}



\author[1]{Rajtantra Lilhare}%
\author[1]{Stephen Dery}%
\author[2]{Tricia Stadnyk}%
\author[3]{Scott Pokorny}%
\author[4]{Kristina Koenig}%
\affil[1]{University of Northern British Columbia}%
\affil[2]{University of Calgary}%
\affil[3]{University of Manitoba}%
\affil[4]{Manitoba Hydro}%


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  \date{May 27, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
This study investigates the impacts of climate change on the hydrology
and soil thermal regime of ten sub-arctic watersheds (northern Manitoba,
Canada) using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. We utilize
statistically downscaled and bias-corrected forcing datasets based on 17
general circulation model (GCM) - representative concentration pathways
(RCP) scenarios from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project (CMIP5) to run the VIC model for three 30-year periods: a
historical baseline (1981--2010), and future projections (2021--2050:
2030s and 2041--2070: 2050s), under representative concentration
pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble (MME)
mean-based VIC simulations indicate a 15--20\% increase and 10\%
decrease in the projected annual precipitation and snowfall,
respectively over the southern portion of the basin and
\textgreater{}20\% rainfall increase over the higher latitudes of the
domain by the 2050s. Snow accumulation is projected to decline across
all sub-basins, particularly in the lower latitudes. Projected
uncertainties in major water balance components (i.e.,
evapotranspiration, surface runoff, and streamflow) are more substantial
in the wetland and lake-dominated Grass and Gunisao watersheds than
their eight counterparts. Future warming increases soil temperatures
\textgreater{}2.5\selectlanguage{ngerman}°C by the 2050s, resulting in 40--50\% more baseflow.
Further analyses of soil temperature trends at three different depths
show the most pronounced warming in the top soil layer (1.6°C 30-year-1
in the 2050s), whereas baseflow increases substantially by 19.7\% and
46.3\% during the 2030s and 2050s, respectively. These results provide
crucial information on the potential future impacts of warming soil
temperatures on the hydrology of sub-arctic watersheds in north-central
Canada and similar hydro-climatic regimes.%
\end{abstract}\selectlanguage{ngerman}%



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\textbf{Hosted file}

\verb`Main_document_Lilhare_et_al.docx`  available at \url{https://authorea.com/users/444649/articles/544341-warming-soil-temperature-and-increasing-baseflow-in-response-to-recent-and-potential-future-climate-change-across-northern-manitoba-canada}

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