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\begin{document}

\title{Compound effects of climate change on future transboundary water issues
in the Middle East}



\author[1]{Amin Dezfuli}%
\author[2]{Saman Razavi}%
\author[3]{Benjamin F Zaitchik}%
\affil[1]{NASA-GSFC and SSAI}%
\affil[2]{University of Saskatchewan}%
\affil[3]{John Hopkins University}%


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  \date{May 21, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
The Middle East is one of the world's most vulnerable areas to climate
change, which has exacerbated environmental, agricultural, water
conflict, and public health issues in the region. Here we analyze the
latest climate model projections of precipitation and temperature for
the very high emissions scenario, SSP5-8.5, to detect potential future
changes in this region. A baseline period (1981-2010) is compared with
the middle (2040-2069) and end (2070-2099) of the 21\textsuperscript{st}
century. The results, representing the worst-case scenario, identify the
Tigris-Euphrates headwaters as the hotspot of future compounding effects
of climate change in the Middle East. Those effects result from the
coincidence of elevated temperature, reduced precipitation, and enhanced
interannual variability of precipitation. The hotspot overlays the
location of the Southeastern Anatolia Project (in Turkish, GAP)
irrigation initiative. In this climate context, risks to GAP viability
and downstream water security, and associated potential for
water-related conflicts and migration are considerable and demand a
reconsideration of the risk-benefit assessment of GAP. This need has
become more urgent after the recent widespread and deadly
climate-related conflicts and wildfires in summer 2021 across the Middle
East that further underlined vulnerability of the region to climate
extremes.%
\end{abstract}%



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