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\begin{document}

\title{Bayesian approach for auroral oval reconstruction from ground-based
observations}



\author[1]{Daniel Wagner}%
\author[2]{Ralph Neuhäuser}%
\author[3]{Rainer Arlt}%
\affil[1]{Astrophysikalisches Institut und Universitäts-Sternwarte Jena}%
\affil[2]{Astrophysikalisches Institut und Universitäts-Sternwarte}%
\affil[3]{Leibniz-Institut für Astrophysik Potsdam}%


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  \date{May 20, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
To understand long term variability of solar activity, homogeneous time
series are required. However, proxies like the Zurich sunspot number or
cosmogenic isotopes suffer from discontinuities. Naked eye observations
of aurorae, however, might be used to bridge discontinuities in solar
activity indices in order to approach a homogeneous solar activity
record. With information derived from aurora observations like observing
site, time of aurora sighting and position on sky we can reconstruct the
auroral oval. Since aurorae are correlated with geomagnetic indices like
the Kp index, it is possible to obtain information about the terrestrial
magnetic field in the form of the position of the magnetic poles as well
as the magnetic disturbance level. \textbackslash{}\textbackslash{} Here
we present a Bayesian approach to reconstruct the auroral oval from
ground-based observations by using two different auroral oval models.
With this method we can estimate the position of the magnetic poles in
corrected geomagnetic coordinates as well as the Kp index. The method is
first validated on synthetic observations before it is applied to four
modern geomagnetic storms between 2003 and 2017 where ground-based
reports and photographs were used to obtain the necessary information.
We have shown that we are able the reconstruct the pole location with an
accuracy of \$\textbackslash{}approx 2\^{}\{\textbackslash{}circ\}\$ in
latitude and \$\textbackslash{}approx 11\^{}\{\textbackslash{}circ\}\$
in longitude. The Kp index can be inferred with a precision of one
class. \textbackslash{}\textbackslash{} The future goal is to employ the
method to historical observations.%
\end{abstract}%



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