1 Databases

Databases used in this scientific article can be found at the following websites:

Global Active Archive of Large Flood Events from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory: https://floodobservatory.colorado.edu/Archives/index.html
HydroBASINS: https://www.hydrosheds.org/products/hydrobasins
HydroATLAS: https://www.hydrosheds.org/hydroatlas
Daymet (precipitation and temperature): https://daymet.ornl.gov/getdata
MSWEP (precipitation): http://www.gloh2o.org/mswep/
Köppen-Geiger (Climate): http://www.gloh2o.org/koppen/
Copernicus Global Land Cover: https://land.copernicus.eu/global/products/lc
Global Gridded Geographically Based Economic Data: https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/spatialecon-gecon-v4
Gridded Population of the World (GPW), v4: https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/collection/gpw-v4
Flood Hazard Map of the World, 0-100 year return period: https://data.europa.eu/data/datasets/jrc-floods-floodmapgl_rp100y-tif?locale=en

Every manipulation and calculation has been made in R via the RStudio GUI: https://posit.co/downloads/

2 Occurence

2.1 Core statistics

2.2 GLM

2.2.1 Baseline

##
## Call:
## glm(formula = FLOOD ~ ., family = binomial(link = "logit"), data = shp_HYDRO_HS08_FM3_TRAIN[,
##     c(15:19, 21:40, 42:61)])
##
## Deviance Residuals:
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max
## -2.9831  -0.2445  -0.1333  -0.0653   4.0458
##
## Coefficients:
##                           Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept)             -2.747e+02  6.437e+01  -4.268 1.97e-05 ***
## CLIMATE_KG2             -1.472e-01  3.397e-01  -0.433 0.664869
## CLIMATE_KG3              6.350e-01  3.130e-01   2.029 0.042487 *
## CLIMATE_KG4              5.024e-01  2.822e-01   1.781 0.074992 .
## CLIMATE_KG5              3.819e-01  2.789e-01   1.369 0.170978
## CLIMATE_KG6              4.941e-01  2.763e-01   1.788 0.073745 .
## CLIMATE_KG7             -1.954e-01  2.736e-01  -0.714 0.475045
## CLIMATE_KG8              1.142e+00  2.770e-01   4.124 3.73e-05 ***
## CLIMATE_KG9              4.300e-01  2.741e-01   1.569 0.116724
## CLIMATE_KG14             8.829e-01  2.704e-01   3.265 0.001094 **
## CLIMATE_KG15            -1.476e+00  2.918e-01  -5.060 4.19e-07 ***
## CLIMATE_KG16            -1.159e+01  4.583e+01  -0.253 0.800447
## CLIMATE_KG17             4.071e-01  5.821e-01   0.699 0.484305
## CLIMATE_KG18             4.248e-01  2.794e-01   1.520 0.128477
## CLIMATE_KG19             2.443e-02  2.819e-01   0.087 0.930949
## CLIMATE_KG21            -7.448e-01  3.485e-01  -2.137 0.032581 *
## CLIMATE_KG22            -1.781e+00  4.311e-01  -4.131 3.61e-05 ***
## CLIMATE_KG25             8.793e-01  2.716e-01   3.238 0.001205 **
## CLIMATE_KG26            -7.634e-02  2.727e-01  -0.280 0.779540
## CLIMATE_KG27            -1.193e+00  2.743e-01  -4.349 1.37e-05 ***
## CLIMATE_KG29            -8.865e-01  2.896e-01  -3.061 0.002203 **
## Precip_Mean_7            6.090e+00  1.241e-01  49.086  < 2e-16 ***
## Precip_Mean_8_30         2.078e+00  3.679e-01   5.649 1.62e-08 ***
## Precip_Mean_31_60       -2.139e-02  4.282e-01  -0.050 0.960147
## Precip_Mean_61_120       2.052e+00  4.950e-01   4.146 3.38e-05 ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_7         -9.552e-03  4.156e-03  -2.298 0.021549 *
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30       1.954e-03  5.484e-03   0.356 0.721620
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60     -3.161e-02  5.989e-03  -5.278 1.31e-07 ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120    -3.797e-02  5.222e-03  -7.270 3.60e-13 ***
## Temp_Min_Mean_7          3.485e-02  4.669e-03   7.464 8.40e-14 ***
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30       3.783e-03  6.226e-03   0.608 0.543477
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60     -3.642e-03  6.734e-03  -0.541 0.588656
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120     5.528e-02  5.795e-03   9.539  < 2e-16 ***
## US_Precip_Mean_7        -3.720e+00  3.442e-01 -10.807  < 2e-16 ***
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30     -3.670e+00  1.135e+00  -3.234 0.001220 **
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60    -3.782e+00  1.304e+00  -2.899 0.003744 **
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120   -6.948e+00  1.465e+00  -4.743 2.10e-06 ***
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7      -8.506e-02  1.017e-02  -8.359  < 2e-16 ***
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30   -3.314e-02  1.392e-02  -2.381 0.017273 *
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60  -1.257e-02  1.522e-02  -0.826 0.408595
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120 -7.407e-04  1.210e-02  -0.061 0.951175
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7       1.175e-02  1.181e-02   0.995 0.319816
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30    3.508e-02  1.620e-02   2.166 0.030305 *
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60   9.555e-02  1.694e-02   5.641 1.70e-08 ***
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120 -5.976e-02  1.354e-02  -4.415 1.01e-05 ***
## crop_ext                 2.765e+02  6.436e+01   4.297 1.73e-05 ***
## forest_ext               2.768e+02  6.436e+01   4.301 1.70e-05 ***
## plain_ext                2.763e+02  6.436e+01   4.293 1.77e-05 ***
## wetland_ext              2.756e+02  6.436e+01   4.282 1.86e-05 ***
## urban_ext                2.769e+02  6.436e+01   4.303 1.68e-05 ***
## bare_ext                 2.766e+02  6.438e+01   4.297 1.73e-05 ***
## water_ext                2.741e+02  6.436e+01   4.259 2.05e-05 ***
## perm_snow_ext            2.731e+02  6.439e+01   4.242 2.22e-05 ***
## IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM       6.833e+00  4.011e-02 170.356  < 2e-16 ***
## dor_pc_pva               5.237e-05  1.305e-05   4.013 6.00e-05 ***
## sgr_dk_sav              -3.988e-04  8.792e-05  -4.536 5.72e-06 ***
## cly_pc_sav               3.920e-02  1.574e-02   2.490 0.012766 *
## cly_pc_uav              -4.579e-02  8.827e-03  -5.188 2.12e-07 ***
## slt_pc_sav              -1.948e-02  1.540e-02  -1.265 0.206048
## slt_pc_uav              -2.701e-02  7.989e-03  -3.380 0.000724 ***
## snd_pc_sav              -2.675e-02  1.474e-02  -1.814 0.069677 .
## snd_pc_uav              -4.486e-02  6.731e-03  -6.664 2.67e-11 ***
## GDPPC                    1.330e-05  1.087e-06  12.237  < 2e-16 ***
## gpw                      2.554e-07  4.243e-08   6.020 1.75e-09 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
##
##     Null deviance: 276454  on 491026  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 140437  on 490963  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 140565
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 12

2.2.2 Baseline + Interaction

##
## Call:
## glm(formula = FLOOD ~ . + Precip_Mean_7 * Temp_Max_Mean_7 * Temp_Min_Mean_7 +
##     Precip_Mean_8_30 * Temp_Max_Mean_8_30 * Temp_Min_Mean_8_30 +
##     Precip_Mean_31_60 * Temp_Max_Mean_31_60 * Temp_Min_Mean_31_60 +
##     Precip_Mean_61_120 * Temp_Max_Mean_61_120 * Temp_Min_Mean_61_120 +
##     US_Precip_Mean_7 * US_Temp_Max_Mean_7 * US_Temp_Min_Mean_7 +
##     US_Precip_Mean_8_30 * US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30 * US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30 +
##     US_Precip_Mean_31_60 * US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60 * US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60 +
##     US_Precip_Mean_61_120 * US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120 * US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120,
##     family = binomial(link = "logit"), data = shp_HYDRO_HS08_FM3_TRAIN[,
##         c(15:19, 21:40, 42:61)])
##
## Deviance Residuals:
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max
## -3.0531  -0.2397  -0.1331  -0.0640   4.0451
##
## Coefficients:
##                                                                         Estimate
## (Intercept)                                                           -1.345e+02
## CLIMATE_KG2                                                           -1.140e-01
## CLIMATE_KG3                                                            6.319e-01
## CLIMATE_KG4                                                            9.540e-01
## CLIMATE_KG5                                                            8.349e-01
## CLIMATE_KG6                                                            7.769e-01
## CLIMATE_KG7                                                            1.247e-01
## CLIMATE_KG8                                                            1.310e+00
## CLIMATE_KG9                                                            6.868e-01
## CLIMATE_KG14                                                           8.915e-01
## CLIMATE_KG15                                                          -4.635e-01
## CLIMATE_KG16                                                          -1.038e+01
## CLIMATE_KG17                                                           7.337e-01
## CLIMATE_KG18                                                           7.201e-01
## CLIMATE_KG19                                                           2.213e-01
## CLIMATE_KG21                                                          -5.929e-01
## CLIMATE_KG22                                                          -1.646e+00
## CLIMATE_KG25                                                           9.169e-01
## CLIMATE_KG26                                                           5.399e-02
## CLIMATE_KG27                                                          -9.594e-01
## CLIMATE_KG29                                                          -9.325e-01
## Precip_Mean_7                                                          3.593e+00
## Precip_Mean_8_30                                                      -1.085e+01
## Precip_Mean_31_60                                                     -1.102e+01
## Precip_Mean_61_120                                                    -6.096e+00
## Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                       -4.047e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                    -2.450e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                   -5.360e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                  -8.039e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                        6.857e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                     1.706e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                    1.965e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                   1.055e-01
## US_Precip_Mean_7                                                      -7.153e+00
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30                                                    1.065e+00
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60                                                  -2.723e+00
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120                                                 -3.062e+01
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                    -1.060e-01
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                 -2.025e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                -6.189e-03
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                               -2.210e-04
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                     4.679e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                  2.502e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                 7.612e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                               -3.473e-02
## crop_ext                                                               1.377e+02
## forest_ext                                                             1.377e+02
## plain_ext                                                              1.375e+02
## wetland_ext                                                            1.366e+02
## urban_ext                                                              1.380e+02
## bare_ext                                                               1.378e+02
## water_ext                                                              1.354e+02
## perm_snow_ext                                                          1.346e+02
## IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM                                                     6.842e+00
## dor_pc_pva                                                             5.973e-05
## sgr_dk_sav                                                             2.063e-04
## cly_pc_sav                                                             2.393e-02
## cly_pc_uav                                                            -3.661e-02
## slt_pc_sav                                                            -2.003e-02
## slt_pc_uav                                                            -3.394e-02
## snd_pc_sav                                                            -3.387e-02
## snd_pc_uav                                                            -4.315e-02
## GDPPC                                                                  1.696e-05
## gpw                                                                    2.513e-07
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Max_Mean_7                                          2.843e-01
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                         -1.825e-01
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                       -2.884e-04
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                    1.398e+00
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                   -1.415e+00
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                  2.695e-04
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                  1.146e+00
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                 -6.940e-01
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                               -6.660e-04
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                1.492e+00
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                               -2.159e+00
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                              2.695e-04
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                                    3.372e-01
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                   -3.997e-01
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                 -6.405e-04
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                             -3.657e-01
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                              3.428e-01
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                            1.577e-04
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                           -9.500e-02
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                           -6.386e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                          9.559e-04
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                          2.037e+00
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                         -2.883e+00
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                       -1.131e-03
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                         -2.294e-03
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                 8.174e-03
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60             -6.025e-03
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120           1.472e-02
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                 3.477e-03
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30       -1.038e-02
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60    -2.704e-03
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120  2.490e-02
##                                                                       Std. Error
## (Intercept)                                                            5.830e+01
## CLIMATE_KG2                                                            3.390e-01
## CLIMATE_KG3                                                            3.144e-01
## CLIMATE_KG4                                                            2.849e-01
## CLIMATE_KG5                                                            2.809e-01
## CLIMATE_KG6                                                            2.786e-01
## CLIMATE_KG7                                                            2.751e-01
## CLIMATE_KG8                                                            2.790e-01
## CLIMATE_KG9                                                            2.763e-01
## CLIMATE_KG14                                                           2.719e-01
## CLIMATE_KG15                                                           2.952e-01
## CLIMATE_KG16                                                           4.635e+01
## CLIMATE_KG17                                                           5.868e-01
## CLIMATE_KG18                                                           2.808e-01
## CLIMATE_KG19                                                           2.832e-01
## CLIMATE_KG21                                                           3.501e-01
## CLIMATE_KG22                                                           4.312e-01
## CLIMATE_KG25                                                           2.731e-01
## CLIMATE_KG26                                                           2.743e-01
## CLIMATE_KG27                                                           2.759e-01
## CLIMATE_KG29                                                           2.911e-01
## Precip_Mean_7                                                          3.610e-01
## Precip_Mean_8_30                                                       1.171e+00
## Precip_Mean_31_60                                                      1.356e+00
## Precip_Mean_61_120                                                     1.574e+00
## Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                        6.014e-03
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                     6.071e-03
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                    6.619e-03
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                   6.163e-03
## Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                        7.631e-03
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                     8.241e-03
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                    8.297e-03
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                   7.224e-03
## US_Precip_Mean_7                                                       1.097e+00
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30                                                    4.152e+00
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60                                                   4.838e+00
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120                                                  5.713e+00
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                     1.477e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                  1.594e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                 1.740e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                1.466e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                     1.904e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                  2.182e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                 2.170e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                1.740e-02
## crop_ext                                                               5.829e+01
## forest_ext                                                             5.828e+01
## plain_ext                                                              5.829e+01
## wetland_ext                                                            5.829e+01
## urban_ext                                                              5.829e+01
## bare_ext                                                               5.830e+01
## water_ext                                                              5.829e+01
## perm_snow_ext                                                          5.832e+01
## IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM                                                     4.031e-02
## dor_pc_pva                                                             1.327e-05
## sgr_dk_sav                                                             8.320e-05
## cly_pc_sav                                                             1.585e-02
## cly_pc_uav                                                             8.888e-03
## slt_pc_sav                                                             1.550e-02
## slt_pc_uav                                                             8.026e-03
## snd_pc_sav                                                             1.483e-02
## snd_pc_uav                                                             6.717e-03
## GDPPC                                                                  1.100e-06
## gpw                                                                    4.258e-08
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Max_Mean_7                                          3.768e-02
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                          4.246e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                        2.053e-04
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                    1.159e-01
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                    1.448e-01
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                  2.160e-04
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                  1.358e-01
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                  1.615e-01
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                1.823e-04
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                1.591e-01
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                2.016e-01
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                              1.327e-04
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                                    1.069e-01
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                    1.324e-01
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                  4.783e-04
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                              3.866e-01
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                              5.153e-01
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                            5.369e-04
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                            4.383e-01
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                            5.268e-01
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                          4.688e-04
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                          5.198e-01
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                          6.421e-01
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                        3.369e-04
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                          1.110e-03
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                 3.542e-03
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60              3.715e-03
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120           4.578e-03
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                 3.365e-03
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30        1.093e-02
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60     1.049e-02
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120  1.264e-02
##                                                                       z value
## (Intercept)                                                            -2.307
## CLIMATE_KG2                                                            -0.336
## CLIMATE_KG3                                                             2.010
## CLIMATE_KG4                                                             3.349
## CLIMATE_KG5                                                             2.973
## CLIMATE_KG6                                                             2.789
## CLIMATE_KG7                                                             0.453
## CLIMATE_KG8                                                             4.697
## CLIMATE_KG9                                                             2.486
## CLIMATE_KG14                                                            3.279
## CLIMATE_KG15                                                           -1.570
## CLIMATE_KG16                                                           -0.224
## CLIMATE_KG17                                                            1.250
## CLIMATE_KG18                                                            2.564
## CLIMATE_KG19                                                            0.781
## CLIMATE_KG21                                                           -1.694
## CLIMATE_KG22                                                           -3.816
## CLIMATE_KG25                                                            3.358
## CLIMATE_KG26                                                            0.197
## CLIMATE_KG27                                                           -3.477
## CLIMATE_KG29                                                           -3.203
## Precip_Mean_7                                                           9.953
## Precip_Mean_8_30                                                       -9.264
## Precip_Mean_31_60                                                      -8.133
## Precip_Mean_61_120                                                     -3.873
## Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                        -6.730
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                     -4.036
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                    -8.098
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                  -13.044
## Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                         8.986
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                      2.070
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                     2.368
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                   14.598
## US_Precip_Mean_7                                                       -6.519
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30                                                     0.257
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60                                                   -0.563
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120                                                  -5.360
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                     -7.180
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                  -1.270
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                 -0.356
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                -0.015
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                      2.457
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                   1.147
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                  3.508
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                -1.995
## crop_ext                                                                2.362
## forest_ext                                                              2.363
## plain_ext                                                               2.358
## wetland_ext                                                             2.343
## urban_ext                                                               2.367
## bare_ext                                                                2.364
## water_ext                                                               2.322
## perm_snow_ext                                                           2.309
## IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM                                                    169.762
## dor_pc_pva                                                              4.500
## sgr_dk_sav                                                              2.480
## cly_pc_sav                                                              1.509
## cly_pc_uav                                                             -4.119
## slt_pc_sav                                                             -1.292
## slt_pc_uav                                                             -4.229
## snd_pc_sav                                                             -2.284
## snd_pc_uav                                                             -6.424
## GDPPC                                                                  15.426
## gpw                                                                     5.902
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Max_Mean_7                                           7.544
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                          -4.298
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                        -1.404
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                    12.067
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                    -9.772
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                   1.248
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                   8.442
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                  -4.297
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                -3.654
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                 9.381
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                               -10.713
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                               2.031
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                                     3.155
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                    -3.020
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                  -1.339
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                              -0.946
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                               0.665
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                             0.294
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                            -0.217
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                            -0.121
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                           2.039
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                           3.918
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                          -4.491
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                        -3.359
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                          -2.066
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                  2.308
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60              -1.622
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120            3.214
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                  1.033
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30        -0.949
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60     -0.258
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120   1.971
##                                                                       Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept)                                                           0.021066
## CLIMATE_KG2                                                           0.736603
## CLIMATE_KG3                                                           0.044441
## CLIMATE_KG4                                                           0.000812
## CLIMATE_KG5                                                           0.002950
## CLIMATE_KG6                                                           0.005294
## CLIMATE_KG7                                                           0.650496
## CLIMATE_KG8                                                           2.64e-06
## CLIMATE_KG9                                                           0.012936
## CLIMATE_KG14                                                          0.001041
## CLIMATE_KG15                                                          0.116384
## CLIMATE_KG16                                                          0.822869
## CLIMATE_KG17                                                          0.211145
## CLIMATE_KG18                                                          0.010336
## CLIMATE_KG19                                                          0.434628
## CLIMATE_KG21                                                          0.090360
## CLIMATE_KG22                                                          0.000136
## CLIMATE_KG25                                                          0.000786
## CLIMATE_KG26                                                          0.843961
## CLIMATE_KG27                                                          0.000507
## CLIMATE_KG29                                                          0.001359
## Precip_Mean_7                                                          < 2e-16
## Precip_Mean_8_30                                                       < 2e-16
## Precip_Mean_31_60                                                     4.19e-16
## Precip_Mean_61_120                                                    0.000107
## Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                       1.69e-11
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                    5.45e-05
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                   5.59e-16
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                   < 2e-16
## Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                        < 2e-16
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                    0.038412
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                   0.017866
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                   < 2e-16
## US_Precip_Mean_7                                                      7.09e-11
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30                                                   0.797553
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60                                                  0.573593
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120                                                 8.33e-08
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                    6.99e-13
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                 0.204047
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                0.722005
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                               0.987972
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                    0.014008
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                 0.251550
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                0.000452
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                               0.046010
## crop_ext                                                              0.018169
## forest_ext                                                            0.018135
## plain_ext                                                             0.018350
## wetland_ext                                                           0.019118
## urban_ext                                                             0.017913
## bare_ext                                                              0.018097
## water_ext                                                             0.020214
## perm_snow_ext                                                         0.020965
## IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM                                                     < 2e-16
## dor_pc_pva                                                            6.80e-06
## sgr_dk_sav                                                            0.013135
## cly_pc_sav                                                            0.131213
## cly_pc_uav                                                            3.80e-05
## slt_pc_sav                                                            0.196457
## slt_pc_uav                                                            2.34e-05
## snd_pc_sav                                                            0.022355
## snd_pc_uav                                                            1.32e-10
## GDPPC                                                                  < 2e-16
## gpw                                                                   3.59e-09
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Max_Mean_7                                         4.56e-14
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                         1.73e-05
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                       0.160173
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                    < 2e-16
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                    < 2e-16
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                 0.212208
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                  < 2e-16
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                 1.73e-05
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                               0.000258
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                < 2e-16
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                < 2e-16
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                             0.042305
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                                   0.001605
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                   0.002527
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                 0.180542
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                             0.344192
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                             0.505907
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                           0.768930
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                           0.828395
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                           0.903513
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                         0.041468
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                         8.94e-05
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                         7.10e-06
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                       0.000783
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                         0.038813
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                0.021001
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60             0.104806
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120          0.001307
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                0.301486
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30       0.342401
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60    0.796585
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120 0.048750
##
## (Intercept)                                                           *
## CLIMATE_KG2
## CLIMATE_KG3                                                           *
## CLIMATE_KG4                                                           ***
## CLIMATE_KG5                                                           **
## CLIMATE_KG6                                                           **
## CLIMATE_KG7
## CLIMATE_KG8                                                           ***
## CLIMATE_KG9                                                           *
## CLIMATE_KG14                                                          **
## CLIMATE_KG15
## CLIMATE_KG16
## CLIMATE_KG17
## CLIMATE_KG18                                                          *
## CLIMATE_KG19
## CLIMATE_KG21                                                          .
## CLIMATE_KG22                                                          ***
## CLIMATE_KG25                                                          ***
## CLIMATE_KG26
## CLIMATE_KG27                                                          ***
## CLIMATE_KG29                                                          **
## Precip_Mean_7                                                         ***
## Precip_Mean_8_30                                                      ***
## Precip_Mean_31_60                                                     ***
## Precip_Mean_61_120                                                    ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                       ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                    ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                   ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                  ***
## Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                       ***
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                    *
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                   *
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                  ***
## US_Precip_Mean_7                                                      ***
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120                                                 ***
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                    ***
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                    *
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                ***
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                               *
## crop_ext                                                              *
## forest_ext                                                            *
## plain_ext                                                             *
## wetland_ext                                                           *
## urban_ext                                                             *
## bare_ext                                                              *
## water_ext                                                             *
## perm_snow_ext                                                         *
## IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM                                                    ***
## dor_pc_pva                                                            ***
## sgr_dk_sav                                                            *
## cly_pc_sav
## cly_pc_uav                                                            ***
## slt_pc_sav
## slt_pc_uav                                                            ***
## snd_pc_sav                                                            *
## snd_pc_uav                                                            ***
## GDPPC                                                                 ***
## gpw                                                                   ***
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Max_Mean_7                                         ***
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                         ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                   ***
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                   ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                 ***
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                 ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                               ***
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                               ***
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                               ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                             *
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                                   **
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                   **
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                         *
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                         ***
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                         ***
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                       ***
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                         *
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                *
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120          **
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120 *
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
##
##     Null deviance: 276454  on 491026  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 138756  on 490931  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 138948
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 12

2.2.3 Baseline - Upstream

##
## Call:
## glm(formula = FLOOD ~ ., family = binomial(link = "logit"), data = shp_HYDRO_HS08_FM3_TRAIN[,
##     c(15:19, 21:28, 42:50, 52:54, 56, 58, 60:61)])
##
## Deviance Residuals:
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max
## -3.2450  -0.3518  -0.2087  -0.1241   3.8855
##
## Coefficients:
##                        Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept)          -2.845e+02  6.183e+01  -4.602 4.18e-06 ***
## CLIMATE_KG2          -1.564e-01  3.227e-01  -0.485  0.62800
## CLIMATE_KG3           6.677e-01  3.056e-01   2.185  0.02892 *
## CLIMATE_KG4           7.938e-01  2.718e-01   2.920  0.00349 **
## CLIMATE_KG5           5.777e-01  2.704e-01   2.136  0.03264 *
## CLIMATE_KG6           7.247e-01  2.681e-01   2.703  0.00687 **
## CLIMATE_KG7           3.584e-02  2.667e-01   0.134  0.89309
## CLIMATE_KG8           1.472e+00  2.682e-01   5.487 4.08e-08 ***
## CLIMATE_KG9           4.373e-01  2.672e-01   1.636  0.10177
## CLIMATE_KG14          1.127e+00  2.646e-01   4.259 2.05e-05 ***
## CLIMATE_KG15         -1.625e+00  2.839e-01  -5.722 1.05e-08 ***
## CLIMATE_KG16         -1.097e+01  2.758e+01  -0.398  0.69087
## CLIMATE_KG17          4.086e-01  5.377e-01   0.760  0.44733
## CLIMATE_KG18          4.970e-01  2.712e-01   1.833  0.06685 .
## CLIMATE_KG19         -7.944e-02  2.729e-01  -0.291  0.77096
## CLIMATE_KG21         -5.302e-01  3.190e-01  -1.662  0.09653 .
## CLIMATE_KG22         -1.710e+00  4.141e-01  -4.130 3.63e-05 ***
## CLIMATE_KG25          1.081e+00  2.652e-01   4.076 4.58e-05 ***
## CLIMATE_KG26         -2.334e-02  2.660e-01  -0.088  0.93008
## CLIMATE_KG27         -1.349e+00  2.674e-01  -5.043 4.59e-07 ***
## CLIMATE_KG29         -9.760e-01  2.812e-01  -3.470  0.00052 ***
## Precip_Mean_7         6.159e+00  9.667e-02  63.708  < 2e-16 ***
## Precip_Mean_8_30      2.540e+00  2.907e-01   8.738  < 2e-16 ***
## Precip_Mean_31_60     3.375e-01  3.361e-01   1.004  0.31530
## Precip_Mean_61_120    2.263e+00  4.004e-01   5.652 1.58e-08 ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_7      -2.417e-02  3.093e-03  -7.814 5.53e-15 ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30   -1.057e-02  4.090e-03  -2.585  0.00973 **
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60  -3.274e-02  4.441e-03  -7.372 1.68e-13 ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120 -4.954e-02  3.955e-03 -12.528  < 2e-16 ***
## Temp_Min_Mean_7       3.955e-02  3.455e-03  11.447  < 2e-16 ***
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30    1.322e-02  4.631e-03   2.854  0.00431 **
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60   9.669e-03  4.992e-03   1.937  0.05275 .
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120  5.755e-02  4.389e-03  13.112  < 2e-16 ***
## crop_ext              2.839e+02  6.182e+01   4.593 4.36e-06 ***
## forest_ext            2.842e+02  6.182e+01   4.598 4.27e-06 ***
## plain_ext             2.836e+02  6.182e+01   4.588 4.47e-06 ***
## wetland_ext           2.831e+02  6.182e+01   4.580 4.65e-06 ***
## urban_ext             2.845e+02  6.182e+01   4.603 4.17e-06 ***
## bare_ext              2.841e+02  6.183e+01   4.595 4.33e-06 ***
## water_ext             2.824e+02  6.182e+01   4.568 4.92e-06 ***
## perm_snow_ext         2.810e+02  6.186e+01   4.542 5.58e-06 ***
## dor_pc_pva            1.931e-05  7.812e-06   2.471  0.01346 *
## sgr_dk_sav           -4.708e-04  7.707e-05  -6.109 1.01e-09 ***
## cly_pc_sav            2.247e-02  1.136e-02   1.978  0.04797 *
## slt_pc_sav           -1.574e-02  1.133e-02  -1.389  0.16473
## snd_pc_sav           -4.683e-02  1.125e-02  -4.163 3.14e-05 ***
## GDPPC                 1.175e-05  8.971e-07  13.093  < 2e-16 ***
## gpw                   1.617e-07  3.697e-08   4.373 1.23e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
##
##     Null deviance: 276454  on 491026  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 210414  on 490979  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 210510
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 11

2.3 GAM

2.3.1 Baseline

##
## Call:
## glm(formula = FLOOD ~ . - Precip_Mean_7 - Precip_Mean_8_30 -
##     Precip_Mean_31_60 - Precip_Mean_61_120 - US_Precip_Mean_7 -
##     US_Precip_Mean_8_30 - US_Precip_Mean_31_60 - US_Precip_Mean_61_120 -
##     GDPPC - gpw + I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001)) + I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 +
##     0.001)) + I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001)) + I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 +
##     0.001)) + I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001)) + I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 +
##     0.001)) + I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001)) + I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 +
##     0.001)) + I(log(GDPPC + 0.01)) + I(log(gpw + 0.01)), family = binomial(link = "logit"),
##     data = shp_HYDRO_HS08_FM3_TRAIN[, c(15:19, 21:40, 42:61)])
##
## Deviance Residuals:
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max
## -3.0845  -0.2374  -0.1249  -0.0637   4.1911
##
## Coefficients:
##                                         Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept)                           -2.112e+02  6.299e+01  -3.353 0.000800
## CLIMATE_KG2                           -2.443e-01  3.359e-01  -0.727 0.466982
## CLIMATE_KG3                            5.394e-01  3.092e-01   1.744 0.081130
## CLIMATE_KG4                            1.373e+00  2.791e-01   4.920 8.65e-07
## CLIMATE_KG5                            1.111e+00  2.755e-01   4.033 5.50e-05
## CLIMATE_KG6                            7.613e-01  2.724e-01   2.795 0.005193
## CLIMATE_KG7                            1.359e-01  2.693e-01   0.505 0.613902
## CLIMATE_KG8                            1.246e+00  2.723e-01   4.575 4.76e-06
## CLIMATE_KG9                            4.895e-01  2.698e-01   1.815 0.069586
## CLIMATE_KG14                           7.631e-01  2.663e-01   2.866 0.004163
## CLIMATE_KG15                          -9.705e-01  2.870e-01  -3.382 0.000720
## CLIMATE_KG16                          -1.106e+01  4.665e+01  -0.237 0.812556
## CLIMATE_KG17                           6.714e-01  5.829e-01   1.152 0.249396
## CLIMATE_KG18                           7.131e-01  2.753e-01   2.591 0.009581
## CLIMATE_KG19                           5.053e-01  2.775e-01   1.821 0.068617
## CLIMATE_KG21                          -6.388e-01  3.457e-01  -1.848 0.064668
## CLIMATE_KG22                          -1.655e+00  4.262e-01  -3.884 0.000103
## CLIMATE_KG25                           8.265e-01  2.673e-01   3.092 0.001986
## CLIMATE_KG26                           1.480e-02  2.684e-01   0.055 0.956024
## CLIMATE_KG27                          -6.157e-01  2.699e-01  -2.281 0.022543
## CLIMATE_KG29                          -3.385e-01  2.856e-01  -1.185 0.235911
## Temp_Max_Mean_7                       -5.655e-03  4.252e-03  -1.330 0.183505
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                     1.426e-02  5.880e-03   2.425 0.015320
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                   -2.976e-02  6.331e-03  -4.700 2.60e-06
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                  -4.243e-02  5.454e-03  -7.779 7.29e-15
## Temp_Min_Mean_7                        2.543e-02  4.743e-03   5.363 8.18e-08
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                    -1.010e-02  6.566e-03  -1.538 0.124009
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                   -3.268e-03  7.022e-03  -0.465 0.641652
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                   5.757e-02  6.092e-03   9.450  < 2e-16
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                    -4.665e-02  1.034e-02  -4.513 6.40e-06
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                 -2.172e-02  1.503e-02  -1.445 0.148433
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                 1.861e-02  1.605e-02   1.159 0.246313
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                7.040e-02  1.311e-02   5.372 7.79e-08
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                    -1.219e-02  1.198e-02  -1.018 0.308540
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                  1.790e-02  1.717e-02   1.043 0.297165
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                 5.627e-02  1.775e-02   3.170 0.001524
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120               -1.299e-01  1.467e-02  -8.857  < 2e-16
## crop_ext                               2.062e+02  6.299e+01   3.274 0.001062
## forest_ext                             2.063e+02  6.298e+01   3.276 0.001053
## plain_ext                              2.061e+02  6.299e+01   3.272 0.001068
## wetland_ext                            2.055e+02  6.299e+01   3.263 0.001103
## urban_ext                              2.062e+02  6.299e+01   3.273 0.001064
## bare_ext                               2.068e+02  6.300e+01   3.283 0.001028
## water_ext                              2.044e+02  6.299e+01   3.245 0.001174
## perm_snow_ext                          2.028e+02  6.303e+01   3.218 0.001290
## IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM                     6.881e+00  4.052e-02 169.823  < 2e-16
## dor_pc_pva                             2.233e-05  1.342e-05   1.664 0.096050
## sgr_dk_sav                            -2.852e-04  8.713e-05  -3.273 0.001063
## cly_pc_sav                             2.324e-02  1.580e-02   1.471 0.141322
## cly_pc_uav                            -3.159e-02  9.009e-03  -3.506 0.000454
## slt_pc_sav                            -2.773e-02  1.547e-02  -1.793 0.072939
## slt_pc_uav                            -2.051e-02  8.273e-03  -2.479 0.013171
## snd_pc_sav                            -3.611e-02  1.480e-02  -2.439 0.014708
## snd_pc_uav                            -3.568e-02  6.994e-03  -5.102 3.36e-07
## I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))          1.043e+00  1.972e-02  52.911  < 2e-16
## I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))       1.302e-01  1.259e-02  10.336  < 2e-16
## I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))      4.023e-02  1.397e-02   2.879 0.003993
## I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))     1.021e-01  1.480e-02   6.899 5.22e-12
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))      -4.390e-01  3.483e-02 -12.604  < 2e-16
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))   -1.473e-01  3.283e-02  -4.487 7.22e-06
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))  -5.664e-02  3.558e-02  -1.592 0.111443
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001)) -4.801e-03  3.596e-02  -0.133 0.893811
## I(log(GDPPC + 0.01))                   6.033e-01  5.246e-02  11.501  < 2e-16
## I(log(gpw + 0.01))                     7.733e-02  2.954e-03  26.176  < 2e-16
##
## (Intercept)                           ***
## CLIMATE_KG2
## CLIMATE_KG3                           .
## CLIMATE_KG4                           ***
## CLIMATE_KG5                           ***
## CLIMATE_KG6                           **
## CLIMATE_KG7
## CLIMATE_KG8                           ***
## CLIMATE_KG9                           .
## CLIMATE_KG14                          **
## CLIMATE_KG15                          ***
## CLIMATE_KG16
## CLIMATE_KG17
## CLIMATE_KG18                          **
## CLIMATE_KG19                          .
## CLIMATE_KG21                          .
## CLIMATE_KG22                          ***
## CLIMATE_KG25                          **
## CLIMATE_KG26
## CLIMATE_KG27                          *
## CLIMATE_KG29
## Temp_Max_Mean_7
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                    *
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                   ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                  ***
## Temp_Min_Mean_7                       ***
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                  ***
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                    ***
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120               ***
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                **
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120               ***
## crop_ext                              **
## forest_ext                            **
## plain_ext                             **
## wetland_ext                           **
## urban_ext                             **
## bare_ext                              **
## water_ext                             **
## perm_snow_ext                         **
## IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM                    ***
## dor_pc_pva                            .
## sgr_dk_sav                            **
## cly_pc_sav
## cly_pc_uav                            ***
## slt_pc_sav                            .
## slt_pc_uav                            *
## snd_pc_sav                            *
## snd_pc_uav                            ***
## I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))         ***
## I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))      ***
## I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))     **
## I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))    ***
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))      ***
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))   ***
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))
## I(log(GDPPC + 0.01))                  ***
## I(log(gpw + 0.01))                    ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
##
##     Null deviance: 276454  on 491026  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 138722  on 490963  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 138850
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 12

2.3.2 GAM + Interaction

##
## Call:
## glm(formula = FLOOD ~ . - Precip_Mean_7 - Precip_Mean_8_30 -
##     Precip_Mean_31_60 - Precip_Mean_61_120 - US_Precip_Mean_7 -
##     US_Precip_Mean_8_30 - US_Precip_Mean_31_60 - US_Precip_Mean_61_120 -
##     GDPPC - gpw + I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001)) + I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 +
##     0.001)) + I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001)) + I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 +
##     0.001)) + I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001)) + I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 +
##     0.001)) + I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001)) + I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 +
##     0.001)) + I(log(GDPPC + 0.01)) + I(log(gpw + 0.01)) + I(log(Precip_Mean_7 +
##     0.001)) * Temp_Max_Mean_7 * Temp_Min_Mean_7 + I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 +
##     0.001)) * Temp_Max_Mean_8_30 * Temp_Min_Mean_8_30 + I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 +
##     0.001)) * Temp_Max_Mean_31_60 * Temp_Min_Mean_31_60 + I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 +
##     0.001)) * Temp_Max_Mean_61_120 * Temp_Min_Mean_61_120 + I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 +
##     0.001)) * US_Temp_Max_Mean_7 * US_Temp_Min_Mean_7 + I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 +
##     0.001)) * US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30 * US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30 +
##     I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001)) * US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60 *
##         US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60 + I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 +
##     0.001)) * US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120 * US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120,
##     family = binomial(link = "logit"), data = shp_HYDRO_HS08_FM3_TRAIN[,
##         c(15:19, 21:40, 42:61)])
##
## Deviance Residuals:
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max
## -3.0102  -0.2369  -0.1254  -0.0632   4.1749
##
## Coefficients:
##                                                                                         Estimate
## (Intercept)                                                                           -1.884e+02
## CLIMATE_KG2                                                                           -2.052e-01
## CLIMATE_KG3                                                                            5.385e-01
## CLIMATE_KG4                                                                            1.326e+00
## CLIMATE_KG5                                                                            1.093e+00
## CLIMATE_KG6                                                                            7.691e-01
## CLIMATE_KG7                                                                            1.769e-01
## CLIMATE_KG8                                                                            1.194e+00
## CLIMATE_KG9                                                                            5.511e-01
## CLIMATE_KG14                                                                           7.612e-01
## CLIMATE_KG15                                                                          -7.742e-01
## CLIMATE_KG16                                                                          -1.085e+01
## CLIMATE_KG17                                                                           6.851e-01
## CLIMATE_KG18                                                                           7.357e-01
## CLIMATE_KG19                                                                           5.474e-01
## CLIMATE_KG21                                                                          -5.500e-01
## CLIMATE_KG22                                                                          -1.601e+00
## CLIMATE_KG25                                                                           8.303e-01
## CLIMATE_KG26                                                                           1.821e-02
## CLIMATE_KG27                                                                          -6.077e-01
## CLIMATE_KG29                                                                          -4.049e-01
## Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                                       -2.659e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                                     6.764e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                                    2.347e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                                  -7.271e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                                        1.075e-01
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                                    -7.016e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                                   -1.253e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                                  -5.963e-03
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                                     3.561e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                                 -4.683e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                                 8.261e-03
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                                8.783e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                                    -1.119e-01
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                                  4.008e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                                 4.837e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                               -1.657e-01
## crop_ext                                                                               1.820e+02
## forest_ext                                                                             1.821e+02
## plain_ext                                                                              1.819e+02
## wetland_ext                                                                            1.813e+02
## urban_ext                                                                              1.819e+02
## bare_ext                                                                               1.827e+02
## water_ext                                                                              1.802e+02
## perm_snow_ext                                                                          1.790e+02
## IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM                                                                     6.882e+00
## dor_pc_pva                                                                             2.424e-05
## sgr_dk_sav                                                                            -1.118e-04
## cly_pc_sav                                                                             1.973e-02
## cly_pc_uav                                                                            -2.834e-02
## slt_pc_sav                                                                            -2.529e-02
## slt_pc_uav                                                                            -2.138e-02
## snd_pc_sav                                                                            -3.560e-02
## snd_pc_uav                                                                            -3.498e-02
## I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                                          1.074e+00
## I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                                      -9.816e-02
## I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                                     -2.092e-01
## I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                                     2.989e-01
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                                      -7.663e-01
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                                    5.258e-02
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                                   9.728e-02
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                                 -2.491e-02
## I(log(GDPPC + 0.01))                                                                   6.441e-01
## I(log(gpw + 0.01))                                                                     7.500e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                         -1.340e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                          3.617e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                       -1.270e-03
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                    1.560e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                   -1.504e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                  9.371e-04
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                  1.577e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                 -9.389e-03
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                               -1.080e-03
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                               -7.503e-03
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                               -1.296e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                              1.831e-03
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                    3.424e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                   -4.524e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                  5.508e-04
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                             -9.975e-03
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                              9.806e-03
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                           -7.529e-04
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                           -5.746e-03
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                            5.778e-03
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                          6.751e-05
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                          1.849e-03
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                         -6.356e-03
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                        5.635e-04
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                         -3.538e-04
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                 1.258e-04
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))             -5.700e-05
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))           2.986e-04
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                 3.515e-04
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))       -2.073e-04
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))    -2.057e-04
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))  1.862e-04
##                                                                                       Std. Error
## (Intercept)                                                                            6.234e+01
## CLIMATE_KG2                                                                            3.361e-01
## CLIMATE_KG3                                                                            3.100e-01
## CLIMATE_KG4                                                                            2.819e-01
## CLIMATE_KG5                                                                            2.771e-01
## CLIMATE_KG6                                                                            2.742e-01
## CLIMATE_KG7                                                                            2.705e-01
## CLIMATE_KG8                                                                            2.741e-01
## CLIMATE_KG9                                                                            2.716e-01
## CLIMATE_KG14                                                                           2.675e-01
## CLIMATE_KG15                                                                           2.898e-01
## CLIMATE_KG16                                                                           4.673e+01
## CLIMATE_KG17                                                                           5.829e-01
## CLIMATE_KG18                                                                           2.764e-01
## CLIMATE_KG19                                                                           2.786e-01
## CLIMATE_KG21                                                                           3.462e-01
## CLIMATE_KG22                                                                           4.279e-01
## CLIMATE_KG25                                                                           2.685e-01
## CLIMATE_KG26                                                                           2.697e-01
## CLIMATE_KG27                                                                           2.712e-01
## CLIMATE_KG29                                                                           2.868e-01
## Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                                        1.298e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                                     1.450e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                                    1.559e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                                   1.554e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                                        1.562e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                                     1.859e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                                    1.967e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                                   1.956e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                                     2.604e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                                  3.916e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                                 4.069e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                                4.174e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                                     3.505e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                                  5.146e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                                 5.241e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                                5.226e-02
## crop_ext                                                                               6.234e+01
## forest_ext                                                                             6.234e+01
## plain_ext                                                                              6.234e+01
## wetland_ext                                                                            6.234e+01
## urban_ext                                                                              6.235e+01
## bare_ext                                                                               6.236e+01
## water_ext                                                                              6.234e+01
## perm_snow_ext                                                                          6.239e+01
## IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM                                                                     4.073e-02
## dor_pc_pva                                                                             1.351e-05
## sgr_dk_sav                                                                             8.933e-05
## cly_pc_sav                                                                             1.585e-02
## cly_pc_uav                                                                             9.062e-03
## slt_pc_sav                                                                             1.551e-02
## slt_pc_uav                                                                             8.324e-03
## snd_pc_sav                                                                             1.484e-02
## snd_pc_uav                                                                             7.025e-03
## I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                                          6.339e-02
## I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                                       4.599e-02
## I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                                      4.992e-02
## I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                                     4.811e-02
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                                       1.081e-01
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                                    1.270e-01
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                                   1.333e-01
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                                  1.287e-01
## I(log(GDPPC + 0.01))                                                                   5.284e-02
## I(log(gpw + 0.01))                                                                     2.972e-03
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                          5.477e-03
## Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                          6.783e-03
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                        4.436e-04
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                    3.423e-03
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                    4.609e-03
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                  4.715e-04
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                  3.709e-03
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                  4.797e-03
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                4.594e-04
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                3.597e-03
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                4.554e-03
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                              4.208e-04
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                    9.643e-03
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                    1.347e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                  9.945e-04
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                              9.117e-03
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                              1.241e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                            1.249e-03
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                            9.435e-03
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                            1.242e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                          1.190e-03
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                          9.323e-03
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                          1.190e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                        1.066e-03
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                          1.798e-04
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                 1.090e-04
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))              1.057e-04
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))           9.980e-05
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                 3.592e-04
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))        2.794e-04
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))     2.676e-04
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))  2.487e-04
##                                                                                       z value
## (Intercept)                                                                            -3.022
## CLIMATE_KG2                                                                            -0.610
## CLIMATE_KG3                                                                             1.737
## CLIMATE_KG4                                                                             4.703
## CLIMATE_KG5                                                                             3.946
## CLIMATE_KG6                                                                             2.805
## CLIMATE_KG7                                                                             0.654
## CLIMATE_KG8                                                                             4.358
## CLIMATE_KG9                                                                             2.029
## CLIMATE_KG14                                                                            2.846
## CLIMATE_KG15                                                                           -2.671
## CLIMATE_KG16                                                                           -0.232
## CLIMATE_KG17                                                                            1.175
## CLIMATE_KG18                                                                            2.662
## CLIMATE_KG19                                                                            1.964
## CLIMATE_KG21                                                                           -1.589
## CLIMATE_KG22                                                                           -3.741
## CLIMATE_KG25                                                                            3.093
## CLIMATE_KG26                                                                            0.068
## CLIMATE_KG27                                                                           -2.241
## CLIMATE_KG29                                                                           -1.411
## Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                                        -2.049
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                                      4.666
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                                     1.506
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                                   -4.678
## Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                                         6.883
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                                     -3.774
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                                    -0.637
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                                   -0.305
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                                      1.367
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                                  -1.196
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                                  0.203
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                                 2.104
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                                     -3.193
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                                   0.779
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                                  0.923
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                                -3.171
## crop_ext                                                                                2.920
## forest_ext                                                                              2.921
## plain_ext                                                                               2.918
## wetland_ext                                                                             2.907
## urban_ext                                                                               2.917
## bare_ext                                                                                2.929
## water_ext                                                                               2.890
## perm_snow_ext                                                                           2.869
## IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM                                                                    168.967
## dor_pc_pva                                                                              1.794
## sgr_dk_sav                                                                             -1.252
## cly_pc_sav                                                                              1.245
## cly_pc_uav                                                                             -3.127
## slt_pc_sav                                                                             -1.630
## slt_pc_uav                                                                             -2.568
## snd_pc_sav                                                                             -2.399
## snd_pc_uav                                                                             -4.980
## I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                                          16.947
## I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                                       -2.135
## I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                                      -4.190
## I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                                      6.214
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                                       -7.090
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                                     0.414
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                                    0.730
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                                  -0.194
## I(log(GDPPC + 0.01))                                                                   12.189
## I(log(gpw + 0.01))                                                                     25.234
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                          -2.447
## Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                           5.333
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                        -2.863
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                     4.558
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                    -3.263
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                   1.988
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                   4.252
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                  -1.957
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                -2.352
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                -2.086
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                -2.846
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                               4.353
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                     3.551
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                    -3.359
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                   0.554
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                              -1.094
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                               0.790
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                            -0.603
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                            -0.609
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                             0.465
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                           0.057
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                           0.198
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                          -0.534
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                         0.529
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                          -1.968
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                  1.155
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))              -0.539
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))            2.992
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                  0.978
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))        -0.742
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))     -0.769
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))   0.749
##                                                                                       Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept)                                                                           0.002510
## CLIMATE_KG2                                                                           0.541637
## CLIMATE_KG3                                                                           0.082324
## CLIMATE_KG4                                                                           2.56e-06
## CLIMATE_KG5                                                                           7.96e-05
## CLIMATE_KG6                                                                           0.005037
## CLIMATE_KG7                                                                           0.513239
## CLIMATE_KG8                                                                           1.31e-05
## CLIMATE_KG9                                                                           0.042484
## CLIMATE_KG14                                                                          0.004427
## CLIMATE_KG15                                                                          0.007552
## CLIMATE_KG16                                                                          0.816406
## CLIMATE_KG17                                                                          0.239870
## CLIMATE_KG18                                                                          0.007767
## CLIMATE_KG19                                                                          0.049473
## CLIMATE_KG21                                                                          0.112130
## CLIMATE_KG22                                                                          0.000183
## CLIMATE_KG25                                                                          0.001983
## CLIMATE_KG26                                                                          0.946172
## CLIMATE_KG27                                                                          0.025042
## CLIMATE_KG29                                                                          0.158133
## Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                                       0.040436
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                                    3.07e-06
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                                   0.132078
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                                  2.90e-06
## Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                                       5.87e-12
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                                    0.000161
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                                   0.524229
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                                  0.760515
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                                    0.171541
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                                 0.231826
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                                0.839117
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                               0.035338
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                                    0.001410
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                                 0.436143
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                                0.356086
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                               0.001519
## crop_ext                                                                              0.003505
## forest_ext                                                                            0.003489
## plain_ext                                                                             0.003525
## wetland_ext                                                                           0.003645
## urban_ext                                                                             0.003529
## bare_ext                                                                              0.003401
## water_ext                                                                             0.003849
## perm_snow_ext                                                                         0.004112
## IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM                                                                     < 2e-16
## dor_pc_pva                                                                            0.072736
## sgr_dk_sav                                                                            0.210570
## cly_pc_sav                                                                            0.213267
## cly_pc_uav                                                                            0.001764
## slt_pc_sav                                                                            0.103068
## slt_pc_uav                                                                            0.010224
## snd_pc_sav                                                                            0.016435
## snd_pc_uav                                                                            6.36e-07
## I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                                          < 2e-16
## I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                                      0.032790
## I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                                     2.78e-05
## I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                                    5.18e-10
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                                      1.34e-12
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                                   0.678789
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                                  0.465529
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                                 0.846547
## I(log(GDPPC + 0.01))                                                                   < 2e-16
## I(log(gpw + 0.01))                                                                     < 2e-16
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                         0.014393
## Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                         9.68e-08
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                       0.004192
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                   5.16e-06
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                   0.001102
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                 0.046857
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                 2.12e-05
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                 0.050343
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                               0.018687
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                               0.036992
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                               0.004420
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                             1.35e-05
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                   0.000384
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                   0.000781
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                 0.579717
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                             0.273883
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                             0.429360
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                           0.546616
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                           0.542488
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                           0.641887
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                         0.954752
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                         0.842779
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                         0.593209
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                       0.596971
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                         0.049109
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                0.248184
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))             0.589849
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))          0.002776
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                0.327882
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))       0.458100
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))    0.442052
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001)) 0.454083
##
## (Intercept)                                                                           **
## CLIMATE_KG2
## CLIMATE_KG3                                                                           .
## CLIMATE_KG4                                                                           ***
## CLIMATE_KG5                                                                           ***
## CLIMATE_KG6                                                                           **
## CLIMATE_KG7
## CLIMATE_KG8                                                                           ***
## CLIMATE_KG9                                                                           *
## CLIMATE_KG14                                                                          **
## CLIMATE_KG15                                                                          **
## CLIMATE_KG16
## CLIMATE_KG17
## CLIMATE_KG18                                                                          **
## CLIMATE_KG19                                                                          *
## CLIMATE_KG21
## CLIMATE_KG22                                                                          ***
## CLIMATE_KG25                                                                          **
## CLIMATE_KG26
## CLIMATE_KG27                                                                          *
## CLIMATE_KG29
## Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                                       *
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                                    ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                                  ***
## Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                                       ***
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                                    ***
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                               *
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                                    **
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                               **
## crop_ext                                                                              **
## forest_ext                                                                            **
## plain_ext                                                                             **
## wetland_ext                                                                           **
## urban_ext                                                                             **
## bare_ext                                                                              **
## water_ext                                                                             **
## perm_snow_ext                                                                         **
## IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM                                                                    ***
## dor_pc_pva                                                                            .
## sgr_dk_sav
## cly_pc_sav
## cly_pc_uav                                                                            **
## slt_pc_sav
## slt_pc_uav                                                                            *
## snd_pc_sav                                                                            *
## snd_pc_uav                                                                            ***
## I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                                         ***
## I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                                      *
## I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                                     ***
## I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                                    ***
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                                      ***
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))
## I(log(GDPPC + 0.01))                                                                  ***
## I(log(gpw + 0.01))                                                                    ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                         *
## Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                         ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                       **
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                   ***
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                   **
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                 *
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                 ***
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                 .
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                               *
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                               *
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                               **
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                             ***
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                   ***
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                   ***
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                         *
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))          **
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
##
##     Null deviance: 276454  on 491026  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 138358  on 490931  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 138550
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 12

2.3.3 GAM - Upstream

##
## Call:
## glm(formula = FLOOD ~ . - Precip_Mean_7 - Precip_Mean_8_30 -
##     Precip_Mean_31_60 - Precip_Mean_61_120 - GDPPC - gpw + I(log(Precip_Mean_7 +
##     0.001)) + I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001)) + I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 +
##     0.001)) + I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001)) + I(log(GDPPC +
##     0.01)) + I(log(gpw + 0.01)), family = binomial(link = "logit"),
##     data = shp_HYDRO_HS08_FM3_TRAIN[, c(15:19, 21:28, 42:50,
##         52:54, 56, 58, 60:61)])
##
## Deviance Residuals:
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max
## -1.7169  -0.3637  -0.1991  -0.1135   3.9429
##
## Coefficients:
##                                      Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept)                        -2.097e+02  5.892e+01  -3.559 0.000372 ***
## CLIMATE_KG2                        -2.647e-01  3.206e-01  -0.826 0.408953
## CLIMATE_KG3                         5.361e-01  3.034e-01   1.767 0.077282 .
## CLIMATE_KG4                         1.489e+00  2.699e-01   5.515 3.48e-08 ***
## CLIMATE_KG5                         1.202e+00  2.682e-01   4.483 7.35e-06 ***
## CLIMATE_KG6                         8.740e-01  2.658e-01   3.289 0.001007 **
## CLIMATE_KG7                         2.558e-01  2.641e-01   0.968 0.332835
## CLIMATE_KG8                         1.486e+00  2.656e-01   5.595 2.20e-08 ***
## CLIMATE_KG9                         4.360e-01  2.646e-01   1.648 0.099359 .
## CLIMATE_KG14                        9.387e-01  2.621e-01   3.581 0.000342 ***
## CLIMATE_KG15                       -1.083e+00  2.801e-01  -3.868 0.000110 ***
## CLIMATE_KG16                       -1.038e+01  2.829e+01  -0.367 0.713680
## CLIMATE_KG17                        5.768e-01  5.399e-01   1.068 0.285367
## CLIMATE_KG18                        6.422e-01  2.687e-01   2.390 0.016837 *
## CLIMATE_KG19                        2.450e-01  2.705e-01   0.906 0.364999
## CLIMATE_KG21                       -5.205e-01  3.170e-01  -1.642 0.100639
## CLIMATE_KG22                       -1.743e+00  4.126e-01  -4.224 2.40e-05 ***
## CLIMATE_KG25                        9.477e-01  2.626e-01   3.608 0.000308 ***
## CLIMATE_KG26                       -2.090e-02  2.634e-01  -0.079 0.936761
## CLIMATE_KG27                       -8.988e-01  2.648e-01  -3.394 0.000689 ***
## CLIMATE_KG29                       -6.202e-01  2.791e-01  -2.222 0.026284 *
## Temp_Max_Mean_7                    -1.178e-02  3.160e-03  -3.727 0.000194 ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                 -1.459e-03  4.344e-03  -0.336 0.736981
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                -2.954e-02  4.661e-03  -6.337 2.35e-10 ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120               -4.823e-02  4.096e-03 -11.775  < 2e-16 ***
## Temp_Min_Mean_7                     2.415e-02  3.519e-03   6.862 6.81e-12 ***
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                  2.799e-03  4.856e-03   0.576 0.564426
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                 6.344e-03  5.177e-03   1.225 0.220396
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                5.616e-02  4.580e-03  12.262  < 2e-16 ***
## crop_ext                            2.077e+02  5.892e+01   3.525 0.000423 ***
## forest_ext                          2.079e+02  5.892e+01   3.528 0.000418 ***
## plain_ext                           2.075e+02  5.892e+01   3.522 0.000428 ***
## wetland_ext                         2.072e+02  5.892e+01   3.516 0.000438 ***
## urban_ext                           2.078e+02  5.892e+01   3.527 0.000421 ***
## bare_ext                            2.086e+02  5.893e+01   3.540 0.000400 ***
## water_ext                           2.066e+02  5.892e+01   3.506 0.000456 ***
## perm_snow_ext                       2.046e+02  5.897e+01   3.469 0.000523 ***
## dor_pc_pva                          1.543e-05  7.890e-06   1.956 0.050461 .
## sgr_dk_sav                         -2.904e-04  7.561e-05  -3.840 0.000123 ***
## cly_pc_sav                          1.593e-02  1.138e-02   1.400 0.161610
## slt_pc_sav                         -2.075e-02  1.135e-02  -1.829 0.067421 .
## snd_pc_sav                         -5.035e-02  1.127e-02  -4.467 7.92e-06 ***
## I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))       1.074e+00  1.541e-02  69.668  < 2e-16 ***
## I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))    1.182e-01  9.338e-03  12.661  < 2e-16 ***
## I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))   4.054e-02  1.039e-02   3.903 9.48e-05 ***
## I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))  9.319e-02  1.124e-02   8.291  < 2e-16 ***
## I(log(GDPPC + 0.01))                5.517e-01  4.308e-02  12.806  < 2e-16 ***
## I(log(gpw + 0.01))                  6.528e-02  2.354e-03  27.735  < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
##
##     Null deviance: 276454  on 491026  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 208638  on 490979  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 208734
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 11

2.4 RF

2.4.1 Baseline

##      IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM           Precip_Mean_7      Precip_Mean_61_120
##             23384.84188              3303.49846              2110.72685
##       Precip_Mean_31_60              cly_pc_uav        Precip_Mean_8_30
##              1967.97787              1879.54130              1844.57120
##                     gpw    Temp_Max_Mean_61_120    Temp_Min_Mean_61_120
##              1759.02495              1713.46470              1600.15596
##     Temp_Max_Mean_31_60         Temp_Min_Mean_7         Temp_Max_Mean_7
##              1539.79585              1516.90678              1478.68966
##      Temp_Max_Mean_8_30              cly_pc_sav     Temp_Min_Mean_31_60
##              1470.57275              1457.97872              1445.71985
##      Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                   GDPPC               urban_ext
##              1425.70562              1276.80001              1182.36697
##              forest_ext              snd_pc_uav               plain_ext
##              1094.95406              1047.19549              1044.34731
##                crop_ext              snd_pc_sav              CLIMATE_KG
##              1023.31998               978.56103               960.63341
##              sgr_dk_sav               water_ext        US_Precip_Mean_7
##               834.62566               755.78107               755.56729
##             wetland_ext   US_Precip_Mean_61_120                bare_ext
##               743.87966               607.78470               521.86858
##              slt_pc_sav    US_Precip_Mean_31_60              slt_pc_uav
##               520.65865               516.91612               491.69706
##     US_Precip_Mean_8_30              dor_pc_pva      US_Temp_Max_Mean_7
##               418.39082               274.81391               254.94621
##   US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30 US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120  US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60
##               224.45359               191.95312               189.57440
##      US_Temp_Min_Mean_7 US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120   US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30
##               144.97803               139.35757               119.40915
##  US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60           perm_snow_ext
##               113.35700                27.38002

2.4.2 Baseline - Upstream

##        Precip_Mean_7   Precip_Mean_61_120           cly_pc_sav
##            5475.7964            3762.3100            3741.5405
##    Precip_Mean_31_60     Precip_Mean_8_30 Temp_Max_Mean_61_120
##            3502.4081            3313.0716            3268.3858
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120  Temp_Max_Mean_31_60      Temp_Min_Mean_7
##            2938.0061            2921.3580            2827.7804
##   Temp_Max_Mean_8_30      Temp_Max_Mean_7  Temp_Min_Mean_31_60
##            2821.6471            2814.4757            2681.4299
##   Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                  gpw           snd_pc_sav
##            2636.1030            2615.1452            2475.4584
##                GDPPC           CLIMATE_KG           forest_ext
##            2419.7013            1873.4601            1716.3180
##            urban_ext            plain_ext             crop_ext
##            1711.0797            1669.1097            1637.9973
##           sgr_dk_sav          wetland_ext           slt_pc_sav
##            1332.0625            1161.4259            1074.2947
##            water_ext             bare_ext           dor_pc_pva
##             975.5180             781.1893             670.9017
##        perm_snow_ext
##              37.7782

2.5 GBM

2.5.1 Baseline

##       [,1]                      [,2]
##  [1,] "IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM"      "71.818264207904"
##  [2,] "CLIMATE_KG"              "8.80491024521512"
##  [3,] "US_Precip_Mean_7"        "3.14517110492911"
##  [4,] "Precip_Mean_7"           "2.72573033657595"
##  [5,] "gpw"                     "1.85209000545442"
##  [6,] "cly_pc_uav"              "1.46571376935209"
##  [7,] "US_Precip_Mean_61_120"   "1.21896809402596"
##  [8,] "snd_pc_uav"              "1.18123537640447"
##  [9,] "GDPPC"                   "1.13093421100901"
## [10,] "water_ext"               "0.720912271476857"
## [11,] "Precip_Mean_61_120"      "0.614260450454917"
## [12,] "Precip_Mean_31_60"       "0.533864013459609"
## [13,] "Precip_Mean_8_30"        "0.464358542039532"
## [14,] "Temp_Max_Mean_31_60"     "0.363889218904426"
## [15,] "Temp_Min_Mean_61_120"    "0.340034232491681"
## [16,] "snd_pc_sav"              "0.281655652716309"
## [17,] "Temp_Max_Mean_61_120"    "0.275319557817112"
## [18,] "cly_pc_sav"              "0.271382303253564"
## [19,] "slt_pc_uav"              "0.270223157124619"
## [20,] "US_Precip_Mean_31_60"    "0.264835871305123"
## [21,] "US_Precip_Mean_8_30"     "0.255009450229073"
## [22,] "Temp_Min_Mean_7"         "0.232995026056269"
## [23,] "Temp_Max_Mean_8_30"      "0.224129139966644"
## [24,] "Temp_Min_Mean_31_60"     "0.219111527288882"
## [25,] "US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120" "0.203752597892841"
## [26,] "crop_ext"                "0.202169684477084"
## [27,] "Temp_Min_Mean_8_30"      "0.189804332078976"
## [28,] "Temp_Max_Mean_7"         "0.149845381947992"
## [29,] "forest_ext"              "0.149804940005779"
## [30,] "slt_pc_sav"              "0.116944969884926"
## [31,] "wetland_ext"             "0.105578285849319"
## [32,] "urban_ext"               "0.0899182369351818"
## [33,] "plain_ext"               "0.0318241637116081"
## [34,] "sgr_dk_sav"              "0.0315681332634769"
## [35,] "US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60"  "0.02020642365221"
## [36,] "bare_ext"                "0.019020067869872"
## [37,] "US_Temp_Max_Mean_7"      "0.00891964143305153"
## [38,] "dor_pc_pva"              "0.00564537554294265"
## [39,] "US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30"   "0"
## [40,] "US_Temp_Min_Mean_7"      "0"
## [41,] "US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30"   "0"
## [42,] "US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60"  "0"
## [43,] "US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120" "0"
## [44,] "perm_snow_ext"           "0"

2.5.2 Baseline - Upstream

##       [,1]                   [,2]
##  [1,] "CLIMATE_KG"           "47.1877889277647"
##  [2,] "Precip_Mean_7"        "12.2703516579076"
##  [3,] "snd_pc_sav"           "5.81760229665061"
##  [4,] "GDPPC"                "5.31252848232181"
##  [5,] "cly_pc_sav"           "3.96596624045715"
##  [6,] "gpw"                  "3.91602862922936"
##  [7,] "Precip_Mean_61_120"   "2.78744849890073"
##  [8,] "Precip_Mean_31_60"    "2.4884886128293"
##  [9,] "Temp_Max_Mean_31_60"  "2.23952577929488"
## [10,] "Precip_Mean_8_30"     "1.81947052308681"
## [11,] "Temp_Max_Mean_61_120" "1.79340140551702"
## [12,] "Temp_Min_Mean_61_120" "1.3594047092153"
## [13,] "slt_pc_sav"           "1.14572122501308"
## [14,] "Temp_Min_Mean_31_60"  "1.10354770086604"
## [15,] "Temp_Max_Mean_8_30"   "1.09761313691183"
## [16,] "Temp_Min_Mean_7"      "1.04675170034634"
## [17,] "crop_ext"             "0.926657553421927"
## [18,] "Temp_Min_Mean_8_30"   "0.766426191580563"
## [19,] "Temp_Max_Mean_7"      "0.686197482950991"
## [20,] "forest_ext"           "0.540367220153309"
## [21,] "urban_ext"            "0.470135482787913"
## [22,] "water_ext"            "0.420844473370047"
## [23,] "dor_pc_pva"           "0.338406033445129"
## [24,] "wetland_ext"          "0.300084737043935"
## [25,] "sgr_dk_sav"           "0.0861559039945052"
## [26,] "plain_ext"            "0.0727305939020724"
## [27,] "bare_ext"             "0.0403548010369952"
## [28,] "perm_snow_ext"        "0"

2.6 By HS02

2.6.1 AUC: Test

2.6.2 AUC: Validation

2.6.3 PR: Test

2.6.4 PR: Validation

2.6.5 N: Test

2.6.6 N: Validation

3 Impact

3.1 Core statistics

3.2 GLM

3.2.1 Baseline

##
## Call:
## glm(formula = Pop_displaced2 ~ . - gpw, family = gaussian(),
##     data = DATA_Flood_FM3_TRAIN[, c(69, 15, 22:26, 28:47, 49:55,
##         58:68)])
##
## Deviance Residuals:
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max
## -8.9591  -1.0413  -0.0993   0.8599  10.6313
##
## Coefficients:
##                           Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept)              1.275e+00  2.699e+00   0.472 0.636826
## SUB_AREA                -1.303e-03  1.352e-05 -96.349  < 2e-16 ***
## CLIMATE_KG3             -2.021e+00  7.446e-01  -2.714 0.006659 **
## CLIMATE_KG4             -1.590e-01  4.771e-01  -0.333 0.739006
## CLIMATE_KG5             -2.979e-01  4.700e-01  -0.634 0.526180
## CLIMATE_KG6              5.984e-01  4.604e-01   1.300 0.193674
## CLIMATE_KG7             -6.043e-02  4.598e-01  -0.131 0.895432
## CLIMATE_KG8             -1.493e+00  4.599e-01  -3.247 0.001169 **
## CLIMATE_KG9             -9.711e-01  4.620e-01  -2.102 0.035543 *
## CLIMATE_KG14            -1.752e+00  4.539e-01  -3.860 0.000113 ***
## CLIMATE_KG15             9.004e-01  5.105e-01   1.764 0.077784 .
## CLIMATE_KG18             1.028e-01  4.782e-01   0.215 0.829873
## CLIMATE_KG19             3.246e+00  4.991e-01   6.504 7.96e-11 ***
## CLIMATE_KG21            -4.338e-01  6.034e-01  -0.719 0.472208
## CLIMATE_KG22             5.168e-01  8.226e-01   0.628 0.529861
## CLIMATE_KG25            -1.755e+00  4.561e-01  -3.848 0.000119 ***
## CLIMATE_KG26            -6.646e-01  4.587e-01  -1.449 0.147418
## CLIMATE_KG27             2.890e+00  4.643e-01   6.225 4.88e-10 ***
## CLIMATE_KG29             3.684e+00  6.367e-01   5.786 7.30e-09 ***
## Precip_Mean_7            2.662e-01  1.973e-01   1.350 0.177184
## Precip_Mean_8_30         1.533e+00  7.296e-01   2.101 0.035621 *
## Precip_Mean_31_60       -6.251e-01  8.406e-01  -0.744 0.457111
## Precip_Mean_61_120      -5.133e-01  9.838e-01  -0.522 0.601821
## Temp_Max_Mean_7          2.369e-02  8.381e-03   2.827 0.004699 **
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30       1.012e-02  1.150e-02   0.880 0.378794
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60      5.937e-02  1.241e-02   4.783 1.73e-06 ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120     4.667e-02  1.075e-02   4.342 1.42e-05 ***
## Temp_Min_Mean_7         -4.925e-02  9.108e-03  -5.407 6.46e-08 ***
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30      -1.056e-02  1.282e-02  -0.824 0.410024
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60     -1.941e-02  1.343e-02  -1.445 0.148467
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120    -8.898e-02  1.197e-02  -7.432 1.10e-13 ***
## US_Precip_Mean_7        -2.930e-01  2.527e-01  -1.160 0.246218
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30     -1.013e+00  9.299e-01  -1.089 0.275959
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60    -7.513e-01  1.067e+00  -0.704 0.481404
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120   -1.447e+00  1.258e+00  -1.150 0.249965
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7       4.329e-03  1.027e-02   0.421 0.673494
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30    8.687e-03  1.433e-02   0.606 0.544463
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60  -5.156e-02  1.559e-02  -3.306 0.000946 ***
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120  4.907e-02  1.255e-02   3.910 9.25e-05 ***
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7       9.286e-03  1.149e-02   0.808 0.418911
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30   -1.830e-03  1.610e-02  -0.114 0.909474
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60   3.414e-02  1.687e-02   2.023 0.043071 *
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120 -3.966e-02  1.411e-02  -2.810 0.004957 **
## crop_ext                -7.182e+00  1.584e+00  -4.533 5.84e-06 ***
## forest_ext              -7.921e+00  1.581e+00  -5.010 5.46e-07 ***
## plain_ext               -6.904e+00  1.584e+00  -4.358 1.32e-05 ***
## wetland_ext             -3.485e+00  1.584e+00  -2.200 0.027822 *
## urban_ext               -1.530e+01  1.587e+00  -9.637  < 2e-16 ***
## bare_ext                 1.062e-01  1.779e+00   0.060 0.952386
## water_ext               -4.412e+00  1.584e+00  -2.785 0.005360 **
## IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM       2.329e-01  5.701e-02   4.085 4.41e-05 ***
## dor_pc_pva              -1.543e-05  1.366e-05  -1.130 0.258472
## sgr_dk_sav               1.387e-03  1.654e-04   8.391  < 2e-16 ***
## cly_pc_sav              -1.451e-01  2.083e-02  -6.968 3.29e-12 ***
## cly_pc_uav               1.576e-01  1.411e-02  11.168  < 2e-16 ***
## slt_pc_sav              -8.582e-02  2.046e-02  -4.195 2.74e-05 ***
## slt_pc_uav               7.258e-02  1.381e-02   5.255 1.49e-07 ***
## snd_pc_sav              -1.111e-01  2.018e-02  -5.508 3.66e-08 ***
## snd_pc_uav               1.083e-01  1.326e-02   8.173 3.13e-16 ***
## GDPPC                   -2.562e-05  1.887e-06 -13.580  < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 2.804543)
##
##     Null deviance: 167960  on 28517  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  79812  on 28458  degrees of freedom
##   (9 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 110401
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

3.2.2 Baseline + Interaction

##
## Call:
## glm(formula = Pop_displaced2 ~ . - gpw + Precip_Mean_7 * Temp_Max_Mean_7 *
##     Temp_Min_Mean_7 + Precip_Mean_8_30 * Temp_Max_Mean_8_30 *
##     Temp_Min_Mean_8_30 + Precip_Mean_31_60 * Temp_Max_Mean_31_60 *
##     Temp_Min_Mean_31_60 + Precip_Mean_61_120 * Temp_Max_Mean_61_120 *
##     Temp_Min_Mean_61_120 + US_Precip_Mean_7 * US_Temp_Max_Mean_7 *
##     US_Temp_Min_Mean_7 + US_Precip_Mean_8_30 * US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30 *
##     US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30 + US_Precip_Mean_31_60 * US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60 *
##     US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60 + US_Precip_Mean_61_120 * US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120 *
##     US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120, family = gaussian(), data = DATA_Flood_FM3_TRAIN[,
##     c(69, 15, 22:26, 28:47, 49:55, 58:68)])
##
## Deviance Residuals:
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max
## -8.7227  -1.0382  -0.1052   0.8472  10.9122
##
## Coefficients:
##                                                                         Estimate
## (Intercept)                                                            1.480e+00
## SUB_AREA                                                              -1.307e-03
## CLIMATE_KG3                                                           -2.024e+00
## CLIMATE_KG4                                                           -2.486e-01
## CLIMATE_KG5                                                           -2.317e-01
## CLIMATE_KG6                                                            5.017e-01
## CLIMATE_KG7                                                           -1.369e-01
## CLIMATE_KG8                                                           -1.395e+00
## CLIMATE_KG9                                                           -1.037e+00
## CLIMATE_KG14                                                          -1.759e+00
## CLIMATE_KG15                                                           7.900e-01
## CLIMATE_KG18                                                           1.097e-01
## CLIMATE_KG19                                                           3.253e+00
## CLIMATE_KG21                                                          -4.720e-01
## CLIMATE_KG22                                                           2.938e-01
## CLIMATE_KG25                                                          -1.781e+00
## CLIMATE_KG26                                                          -7.679e-01
## CLIMATE_KG27                                                           2.788e+00
## CLIMATE_KG29                                                           3.646e+00
## Precip_Mean_7                                                          3.077e+00
## Precip_Mean_8_30                                                      -6.162e-01
## Precip_Mean_31_60                                                     -2.598e+00
## Precip_Mean_61_120                                                    -2.267e+01
## Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                        4.406e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                    -1.707e-04
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                    8.092e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                   1.149e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                       -8.034e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                    -5.015e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                   -4.318e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                  -1.196e-01
## US_Precip_Mean_7                                                      -1.821e+00
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30                                                    2.746e+00
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60                                                   7.443e+00
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120                                                  9.443e+00
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                     5.929e-03
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                  8.096e-03
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                -4.907e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                6.506e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                     8.655e-03
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                  1.515e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                 3.131e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                               -4.750e-02
## crop_ext                                                              -7.455e+00
## forest_ext                                                            -8.188e+00
## plain_ext                                                             -7.201e+00
## wetland_ext                                                           -3.749e+00
## urban_ext                                                             -1.547e+01
## bare_ext                                                              -2.463e-01
## water_ext                                                             -4.571e+00
## IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM                                                     1.839e-01
## dor_pc_pva                                                            -2.134e-05
## sgr_dk_sav                                                             1.615e-03
## cly_pc_sav                                                            -1.426e-01
## cly_pc_uav                                                             1.540e-01
## slt_pc_sav                                                            -8.742e-02
## slt_pc_uav                                                             7.240e-02
## snd_pc_sav                                                            -1.111e-01
## snd_pc_uav                                                             1.074e-01
## GDPPC                                                                 -2.538e-05
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Max_Mean_7                                         -1.679e-01
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                          2.013e-01
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                        8.686e-04
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                    2.567e-01
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                   -2.584e-01
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                  1.850e-03
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                  4.640e-01
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                 -6.500e-01
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                               -2.281e-05
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                1.726e+00
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                7.272e-01
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                              2.088e-03
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                                    6.617e-03
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                    1.825e-01
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                 -4.082e-04
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                             -4.668e-01
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                              7.172e-01
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                           -5.967e-04
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                           -8.150e-01
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                            8.756e-01
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                         -1.215e-04
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                         -8.477e-01
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                          3.269e-01
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                        1.224e-05
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                         -4.887e-03
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                -6.432e-04
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60              3.237e-03
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120          -6.892e-02
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                -3.207e-03
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30       -5.689e-03
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60    -3.769e-04
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120  9.111e-03
##                                                                       Std. Error
## (Intercept)                                                            2.696e+00
## SUB_AREA                                                               1.345e-05
## CLIMATE_KG3                                                            7.416e-01
## CLIMATE_KG4                                                            4.772e-01
## CLIMATE_KG5                                                            4.689e-01
## CLIMATE_KG6                                                            4.598e-01
## CLIMATE_KG7                                                            4.586e-01
## CLIMATE_KG8                                                            4.594e-01
## CLIMATE_KG9                                                            4.629e-01
## CLIMATE_KG14                                                           4.529e-01
## CLIMATE_KG15                                                           5.158e-01
## CLIMATE_KG18                                                           4.765e-01
## CLIMATE_KG19                                                           4.977e-01
## CLIMATE_KG21                                                           6.018e-01
## CLIMATE_KG22                                                           8.193e-01
## CLIMATE_KG25                                                           4.551e-01
## CLIMATE_KG26                                                           4.579e-01
## CLIMATE_KG27                                                           4.634e-01
## CLIMATE_KG29                                                           6.363e-01
## Precip_Mean_7                                                          8.239e-01
## Precip_Mean_8_30                                                       3.110e+00
## Precip_Mean_31_60                                                      3.604e+00
## Precip_Mean_61_120                                                     4.153e+00
## Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                        1.248e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                     1.330e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                    1.461e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                   1.361e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                        1.704e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                     1.923e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                    1.877e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                   1.645e-02
## US_Precip_Mean_7                                                       9.854e-01
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30                                                    4.110e+00
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60                                                   4.666e+00
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120                                                  5.491e+00
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                     1.474e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                  1.682e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                 1.848e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                1.602e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                     2.021e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                  2.410e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                 2.346e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                1.994e-02
## crop_ext                                                               1.585e+00
## forest_ext                                                             1.582e+00
## plain_ext                                                              1.585e+00
## wetland_ext                                                            1.585e+00
## urban_ext                                                              1.588e+00
## bare_ext                                                               1.775e+00
## water_ext                                                              1.585e+00
## IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM                                                     5.734e-02
## dor_pc_pva                                                             1.367e-05
## sgr_dk_sav                                                             1.689e-04
## cly_pc_sav                                                             2.073e-02
## cly_pc_uav                                                             1.406e-02
## slt_pc_sav                                                             2.036e-02
## slt_pc_uav                                                             1.375e-02
## snd_pc_sav                                                             2.008e-02
## snd_pc_uav                                                             1.320e-02
## GDPPC                                                                  1.888e-06
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Max_Mean_7                                          7.002e-02
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                          9.487e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                        4.738e-04
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                    2.786e-01
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                    4.137e-01
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                  4.950e-04
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                  3.119e-01
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                  4.151e-01
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                4.218e-04
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                3.847e-01
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                5.398e-01
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                              3.117e-04
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                                    8.830e-02
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                    1.213e-01
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                  5.456e-04
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                              3.717e-01
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                              5.462e-01
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                            6.138e-04
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                            4.049e-01
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                            5.447e-01
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                          5.219e-04
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                          5.031e-01
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                          7.006e-01
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                        3.934e-04
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                          2.669e-03
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                 9.703e-03
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60              9.480e-03
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120           1.131e-02
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                 3.262e-03
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30        1.230e-02
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60     1.245e-02
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120  1.446e-02
##                                                                       t value
## (Intercept)                                                             0.549
## SUB_AREA                                                              -97.128
## CLIMATE_KG3                                                            -2.729
## CLIMATE_KG4                                                            -0.521
## CLIMATE_KG5                                                            -0.494
## CLIMATE_KG6                                                             1.091
## CLIMATE_KG7                                                            -0.299
## CLIMATE_KG8                                                            -3.036
## CLIMATE_KG9                                                            -2.240
## CLIMATE_KG14                                                           -3.883
## CLIMATE_KG15                                                            1.531
## CLIMATE_KG18                                                            0.230
## CLIMATE_KG19                                                            6.536
## CLIMATE_KG21                                                           -0.784
## CLIMATE_KG22                                                            0.359
## CLIMATE_KG25                                                           -3.914
## CLIMATE_KG26                                                           -1.677
## CLIMATE_KG27                                                            6.016
## CLIMATE_KG29                                                            5.730
## Precip_Mean_7                                                           3.735
## Precip_Mean_8_30                                                       -0.198
## Precip_Mean_31_60                                                      -0.721
## Precip_Mean_61_120                                                     -5.458
## Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                         3.529
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                     -0.013
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                     5.540
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                    0.844
## Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                        -4.714
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                     -2.608
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                    -2.300
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                   -7.270
## US_Precip_Mean_7                                                       -1.848
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30                                                     0.668
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60                                                    1.595
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120                                                   1.720
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                      0.402
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                   0.481
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                 -2.656
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                 4.061
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                      0.428
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                   0.629
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                  1.335
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                -2.382
## crop_ext                                                               -4.703
## forest_ext                                                             -5.175
## plain_ext                                                              -4.544
## wetland_ext                                                            -2.366
## urban_ext                                                              -9.743
## bare_ext                                                               -0.139
## water_ext                                                              -2.885
## IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM                                                      3.208
## dor_pc_pva                                                             -1.561
## sgr_dk_sav                                                              9.562
## cly_pc_sav                                                             -6.879
## cly_pc_uav                                                             10.956
## slt_pc_sav                                                             -4.295
## slt_pc_uav                                                              5.267
## snd_pc_sav                                                             -5.536
## snd_pc_uav                                                              8.134
## GDPPC                                                                 -13.446
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Max_Mean_7                                          -2.398
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                           2.121
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                         1.833
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                     0.921
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                    -0.625
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                   3.737
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                   1.488
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                  -1.566
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                -0.054
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                 4.486
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                 1.347
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                               6.698
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                                     0.075
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                     1.504
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                  -0.748
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                              -1.256
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                               1.313
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                            -0.972
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                            -2.013
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                             1.608
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                          -0.233
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                          -1.685
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                           0.467
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                         0.031
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                          -1.831
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                 -0.066
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60               0.341
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120           -6.096
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                 -0.983
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30        -0.462
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60     -0.030
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120   0.630
##                                                                       Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept)                                                           0.583094
## SUB_AREA                                                               < 2e-16
## CLIMATE_KG3                                                           0.006357
## CLIMATE_KG4                                                           0.602368
## CLIMATE_KG5                                                           0.621243
## CLIMATE_KG6                                                           0.275252
## CLIMATE_KG7                                                           0.765315
## CLIMATE_KG8                                                           0.002398
## CLIMATE_KG9                                                           0.025117
## CLIMATE_KG14                                                          0.000103
## CLIMATE_KG15                                                          0.125676
## CLIMATE_KG18                                                          0.817881
## CLIMATE_KG19                                                          6.43e-11
## CLIMATE_KG21                                                          0.432850
## CLIMATE_KG22                                                          0.719922
## CLIMATE_KG25                                                          9.09e-05
## CLIMATE_KG26                                                          0.093555
## CLIMATE_KG27                                                          1.80e-09
## CLIMATE_KG29                                                          1.02e-08
## Precip_Mean_7                                                         0.000188
## Precip_Mean_8_30                                                      0.842934
## Precip_Mean_31_60                                                     0.470941
## Precip_Mean_61_120                                                    4.87e-08
## Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                       0.000417
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                    0.989763
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                   3.05e-08
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                  0.398878
## Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                       2.44e-06
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                    0.009099
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                   0.021455
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                  3.69e-13
## US_Precip_Mean_7                                                      0.064630
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30                                                   0.504042
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60                                                  0.110658
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120                                                 0.085494
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                    0.687410
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                 0.630375
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                0.007923
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                               4.90e-05
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                    0.668407
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                 0.529568
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                0.182049
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                               0.017239
## crop_ext                                                              2.58e-06
## forest_ext                                                            2.29e-07
## plain_ext                                                             5.55e-06
## wetland_ext                                                           0.018009
## urban_ext                                                              < 2e-16
## bare_ext                                                              0.889661
## water_ext                                                             0.003921
## IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM                                                    0.001339
## dor_pc_pva                                                            0.118489
## sgr_dk_sav                                                             < 2e-16
## cly_pc_sav                                                            6.16e-12
## cly_pc_uav                                                             < 2e-16
## slt_pc_sav                                                            1.75e-05
## slt_pc_uav                                                            1.40e-07
## snd_pc_sav                                                            3.13e-08
## snd_pc_uav                                                            4.33e-16
## GDPPC                                                                  < 2e-16
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Max_Mean_7                                         0.016470
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                         0.033898
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                       0.066786
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                   0.356930
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                   0.532223
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                 0.000187
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                 0.136840
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                 0.117375
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                               0.956876
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                               7.28e-06
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                               0.177992
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                             2.15e-11
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                                   0.940260
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                   0.132488
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                 0.454351
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                             0.209117
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                             0.189207
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                           0.330961
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                           0.044149
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                           0.107950
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                         0.815956
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                         0.091977
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                         0.640787
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                       0.975179
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                         0.067161
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                0.947146
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60             0.732766
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120          1.10e-09
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                0.325572
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30       0.643763
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60    0.975852
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120 0.528661
##
## (Intercept)
## SUB_AREA                                                              ***
## CLIMATE_KG3                                                           **
## CLIMATE_KG4
## CLIMATE_KG5
## CLIMATE_KG6
## CLIMATE_KG7
## CLIMATE_KG8                                                           **
## CLIMATE_KG9                                                           *
## CLIMATE_KG14                                                          ***
## CLIMATE_KG15
## CLIMATE_KG18
## CLIMATE_KG19                                                          ***
## CLIMATE_KG21
## CLIMATE_KG22
## CLIMATE_KG25                                                          ***
## CLIMATE_KG26                                                          .
## CLIMATE_KG27                                                          ***
## CLIMATE_KG29                                                          ***
## Precip_Mean_7                                                         ***
## Precip_Mean_8_30
## Precip_Mean_31_60
## Precip_Mean_61_120                                                    ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                       ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                   ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120
## Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                       ***
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                    **
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                   *
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                  ***
## US_Precip_Mean_7                                                      .
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120                                                 .
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                **
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                               ***
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                               *
## crop_ext                                                              ***
## forest_ext                                                            ***
## plain_ext                                                             ***
## wetland_ext                                                           *
## urban_ext                                                             ***
## bare_ext
## water_ext                                                             **
## IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM                                                    **
## dor_pc_pva
## sgr_dk_sav                                                            ***
## cly_pc_sav                                                            ***
## cly_pc_uav                                                            ***
## slt_pc_sav                                                            ***
## slt_pc_uav                                                            ***
## snd_pc_sav                                                            ***
## snd_pc_uav                                                            ***
## GDPPC                                                                 ***
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Max_Mean_7                                         *
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                         *
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                       .
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Max_Mean_8_30
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                 ***
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Max_Mean_31_60
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                               ***
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                             ***
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Max_Mean_7
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                           *
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                         .
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120
## Precip_Mean_7:Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                         .
## Precip_Mean_8_30:Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30
## Precip_Mean_31_60:Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60
## Precip_Mean_61_120:Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120          ***
## US_Precip_Mean_7:US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7
## US_Precip_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30
## US_Precip_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60
## US_Precip_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 2.771763)
##
##     Null deviance: 167960  on 28517  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  78790  on 28426  degrees of freedom
##   (9 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 110098
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

3.2.3 Baseline - Upstream

##
## Call:
## glm(formula = Pop_displaced2 ~ . - gpw, family = gaussian(),
##     data = DATA_Flood_FM3_TRAIN[, c(69, 15, 22:26, 28:35, 49:55,
##         59:61, 63, 65, 67:68)])
##
## Deviance Residuals:
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max
## -9.0564  -1.0477  -0.1131   0.8574  10.6233
##
## Coefficients:
##                        Estimate Std. Error  t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept)           8.538e+00  2.588e+00    3.299 0.000973 ***
## SUB_AREA             -1.353e-03  1.321e-05 -102.398  < 2e-16 ***
## CLIMATE_KG3          -2.084e+00  7.492e-01   -2.782 0.005405 **
## CLIMATE_KG4          -2.831e-01  4.798e-01   -0.590 0.555193
## CLIMATE_KG5          -5.098e-01  4.721e-01   -1.080 0.280166
## CLIMATE_KG6           6.205e-01  4.632e-01    1.340 0.180363
## CLIMATE_KG7          -1.970e-01  4.623e-01   -0.426 0.669988
## CLIMATE_KG8          -1.651e+00  4.625e-01   -3.570 0.000358 ***
## CLIMATE_KG9          -1.169e+00  4.645e-01   -2.517 0.011830 *
## CLIMATE_KG14         -1.836e+00  4.566e-01   -4.021 5.81e-05 ***
## CLIMATE_KG15          7.049e-01  5.132e-01    1.374 0.169577
## CLIMATE_KG18         -1.874e-01  4.806e-01   -0.390 0.696663
## CLIMATE_KG19          2.933e+00  5.016e-01    5.847 5.05e-09 ***
## CLIMATE_KG21         -4.393e-01  6.070e-01   -0.724 0.469241
## CLIMATE_KG22          3.393e-01  8.275e-01    0.410 0.681800
## CLIMATE_KG25         -1.922e+00  4.584e-01   -4.193 2.76e-05 ***
## CLIMATE_KG26         -9.341e-01  4.611e-01   -2.026 0.042793 *
## CLIMATE_KG27          2.577e+00  4.666e-01    5.523 3.36e-08 ***
## CLIMATE_KG29          3.368e+00  6.400e-01    5.263 1.43e-07 ***
## Precip_Mean_7         1.042e-01  1.547e-01    0.674 0.500426
## Precip_Mean_8_30      9.991e-01  5.329e-01    1.875 0.060817 .
## Precip_Mean_31_60    -1.044e+00  6.058e-01   -1.723 0.084935 .
## Precip_Mean_61_120   -1.107e+00  7.301e-01   -1.517 0.129333
## Temp_Max_Mean_7       2.899e-02  5.634e-03    5.145 2.69e-07 ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30    1.964e-02  7.638e-03    2.572 0.010122 *
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60   2.888e-02  8.135e-03    3.550 0.000386 ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120  7.992e-02  7.660e-03   10.433  < 2e-16 ***
## Temp_Min_Mean_7      -4.546e-02  6.044e-03   -7.522 5.57e-14 ***
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30   -1.637e-02  8.593e-03   -1.905 0.056740 .
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60   6.406e-05  8.881e-03    0.007 0.994245
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120 -1.165e-01  8.533e-03  -13.650  < 2e-16 ***
## crop_ext             -6.723e+00  1.590e+00   -4.228 2.37e-05 ***
## forest_ext           -7.417e+00  1.587e+00   -4.675 2.95e-06 ***
## plain_ext            -6.453e+00  1.590e+00   -4.059 4.94e-05 ***
## wetland_ext          -2.921e+00  1.590e+00   -1.837 0.066221 .
## urban_ext            -1.486e+01  1.593e+00   -9.327  < 2e-16 ***
## bare_ext              3.495e-01  1.788e+00    0.195 0.845039
## water_ext            -4.261e+00  1.592e+00   -2.677 0.007442 **
## dor_pc_pva            4.876e-05  1.244e-05    3.922 8.82e-05 ***
## sgr_dk_sav            1.282e-03  1.655e-04    7.743 1.00e-14 ***
## cly_pc_sav           -8.559e-02  2.021e-02   -4.235 2.29e-05 ***
## slt_pc_sav           -7.538e-02  2.005e-02   -3.760 0.000171 ***
## snd_pc_sav           -8.039e-02  1.991e-02   -4.037 5.43e-05 ***
## GDPPC                -2.673e-05  1.895e-06  -14.106  < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 2.841461)
##
##     Null deviance: 167960  on 28517  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  80908  on 28474  degrees of freedom
##   (9 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 110758
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

3.3 GAM

3.3.1 Baseline

##
## Call:
## glm(formula = Pop_displaced2 ~ . - Precip_Mean_7 - Precip_Mean_8_30 -
##     Precip_Mean_31_60 - Precip_Mean_61_120 - US_Precip_Mean_7 -
##     US_Precip_Mean_8_30 - US_Precip_Mean_31_60 - US_Precip_Mean_61_120 -
##     GDPPC + I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001)) + I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 +
##     0.001)) + I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001)) + I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 +
##     0.001)) + I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001)) + I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 +
##     0.001)) + I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001)) + I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 +
##     0.001)) + I(log(GDPPC + 0.01)), family = gaussian(), data = DATA_Flood_FM3[,
##     c(15, 22:26, 28:35, 49:55, 59:61, 63, 65, 67, 69, 36:48,
##         58, 62, 64, 66)])
##
## Deviance Residuals:
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max
## -8.4980  -1.5273  -0.2367   1.2841  16.3833
##
## Coefficients:
##                                         Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept)                            8.506e+00  5.938e+00   1.433 0.152009
## SUB_AREA                              -9.151e-04  2.414e-05 -37.912  < 2e-16
## CLIMATE_KG3                           -2.123e+00  1.015e+00  -2.092 0.036486
## CLIMATE_KG4                            1.730e+00  7.472e-01   2.315 0.020634
## CLIMATE_KG5                            1.249e+00  6.756e-01   1.849 0.064477
## CLIMATE_KG6                            1.081e-01  6.739e-01   0.160 0.872593
## CLIMATE_KG7                            2.293e+00  6.530e-01   3.511 0.000447
## CLIMATE_KG8                            1.003e+00  6.500e-01   1.543 0.122953
## CLIMATE_KG9                            9.658e-01  6.528e-01   1.480 0.138995
## CLIMATE_KG14                          -5.670e-01  6.366e-01  -0.891 0.373103
## CLIMATE_KG15                           2.071e+00  7.129e-01   2.904 0.003685
## CLIMATE_KG18                           3.843e+00  6.839e-01   5.619 1.95e-08
## CLIMATE_KG19                           1.548e+00  7.806e-01   1.983 0.047375
## CLIMATE_KG21                           2.395e+00  1.451e+00   1.651 0.098698
## CLIMATE_KG22                           4.571e+00  1.026e+00   4.455 8.46e-06
## CLIMATE_KG25                          -7.188e-01  6.425e-01  -1.119 0.263280
## CLIMATE_KG26                           7.744e-01  6.481e-01   1.195 0.232181
## CLIMATE_KG27                           2.758e+00  6.604e-01   4.177 2.97e-05
## CLIMATE_KG29                           2.541e+00  1.621e+00   1.568 0.116995
## Temp_Max_Mean_7                        1.452e-01  1.840e-02   7.895 3.11e-15
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                    -3.349e-02  2.511e-02  -1.334 0.182253
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                   -2.890e-02  2.703e-02  -1.069 0.284883
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                   6.147e-02  2.233e-02   2.752 0.005924
## Temp_Min_Mean_7                       -1.428e-01  1.996e-02  -7.154 8.82e-13
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                    -1.077e-02  2.797e-02  -0.385 0.700222
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                    1.017e-01  2.917e-02   3.485 0.000493
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                  -1.048e-01  2.504e-02  -4.186 2.86e-05
## crop_ext                              -1.407e+01  4.011e+00  -3.508 0.000453
## forest_ext                            -1.447e+01  4.006e+00  -3.611 0.000306
## plain_ext                             -1.416e+01  4.011e+00  -3.530 0.000417
## wetland_ext                           -1.034e+01  4.011e+00  -2.579 0.009920
## urban_ext                             -1.841e+01  4.013e+00  -4.587 4.54e-06
## bare_ext                              -1.019e+01  4.494e+00  -2.267 0.023434
## water_ext                             -1.298e+01  4.007e+00  -3.239 0.001203
## dor_pc_pva                            -1.946e-04  2.606e-05  -7.468 8.61e-14
## sgr_dk_sav                             1.596e-03  2.760e-04   5.783 7.49e-09
## cly_pc_sav                            -1.001e-01  3.781e-02  -2.648 0.008096
## slt_pc_sav                            -7.076e-02  3.732e-02  -1.896 0.057992
## snd_pc_sav                            -8.374e-02  3.685e-02  -2.273 0.023066
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                    -1.112e-01  2.098e-02  -5.300 1.18e-07
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                  7.080e-02  2.933e-02   2.414 0.015803
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                 2.317e-02  3.127e-02   0.741 0.458715
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120               -6.414e-02  2.489e-02  -2.576 0.009992
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                     1.132e-01  2.325e-02   4.868 1.14e-06
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                 -3.305e-02  3.299e-02  -1.002 0.316475
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                -7.550e-02  3.387e-02  -2.229 0.025816
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                9.719e-02  2.816e-02   3.451 0.000559
## US_Area                                2.194e-05  1.742e-05   1.260 0.207826
## IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM                     3.648e-01  1.007e-01   3.623 0.000293
## cly_pc_uav                             1.752e-01  2.582e-02   6.787 1.19e-11
## slt_pc_uav                             1.020e-01  2.605e-02   3.916 9.04e-05
## snd_pc_uav                             1.521e-01  2.482e-02   6.130 9.01e-10
## I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))          1.665e-01  6.256e-02   2.662 0.007770
## I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))      -8.556e-02  4.947e-02  -1.730 0.083724
## I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))      7.417e-03  5.314e-02   0.140 0.889005
## I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))     3.034e-01  5.830e-02   5.204 1.98e-07
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))       8.534e-02  5.698e-02   1.498 0.134245
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))    2.346e-01  5.907e-02   3.971 7.18e-05
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))   3.763e-02  6.275e-02   0.600 0.548738
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001)) -1.951e-01  6.754e-02  -2.888 0.003881
## I(log(GDPPC + 0.01))                  -4.792e-01  1.625e-01  -2.949 0.003193
##
## (Intercept)
## SUB_AREA                              ***
## CLIMATE_KG3                           *
## CLIMATE_KG4                           *
## CLIMATE_KG5                           .
## CLIMATE_KG6
## CLIMATE_KG7                           ***
## CLIMATE_KG8
## CLIMATE_KG9
## CLIMATE_KG14
## CLIMATE_KG15                          **
## CLIMATE_KG18                          ***
## CLIMATE_KG19                          *
## CLIMATE_KG21                          .
## CLIMATE_KG22                          ***
## CLIMATE_KG25
## CLIMATE_KG26
## CLIMATE_KG27                          ***
## CLIMATE_KG29
## Temp_Max_Mean_7                       ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                  **
## Temp_Min_Mean_7                       ***
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                   ***
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                  ***
## crop_ext                              ***
## forest_ext                            ***
## plain_ext                             ***
## wetland_ext                           **
## urban_ext                             ***
## bare_ext                              *
## water_ext                             **
## dor_pc_pva                            ***
## sgr_dk_sav                            ***
## cly_pc_sav                            **
## slt_pc_sav                            .
## snd_pc_sav                            *
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                    ***
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                 *
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120               **
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                    ***
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                *
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120               ***
## US_Area
## IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM                    ***
## cly_pc_uav                            ***
## slt_pc_uav                            ***
## snd_pc_uav                            ***
## I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))         **
## I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))      .
## I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))
## I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))    ***
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))   ***
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001)) **
## I(log(GDPPC + 0.01))                  **
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 5.051827)
##
##     Null deviance: 107278  on 15024  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  75596  on 14964  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 67039
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

3.3.2 GAM + Interaction

##
## Call:
## glm(formula = Pop_displaced2 ~ . - Precip_Mean_7 - Precip_Mean_8_30 -
##     Precip_Mean_31_60 - Precip_Mean_61_120 - US_Precip_Mean_7 -
##     US_Precip_Mean_8_30 - US_Precip_Mean_31_60 - US_Precip_Mean_61_120 -
##     GDPPC - gpw + I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001)) + I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 +
##     0.001)) + I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001)) + I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 +
##     0.001)) + I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001)) + I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 +
##     0.001)) + I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001)) + I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 +
##     0.001)) + I(log(GDPPC + 0.01)) + I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001)) *
##     Temp_Max_Mean_7 * Temp_Min_Mean_7 + I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 +
##     0.001)) * Temp_Max_Mean_8_30 * Temp_Min_Mean_8_30 + I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 +
##     0.001)) * Temp_Max_Mean_31_60 * Temp_Min_Mean_31_60 + I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 +
##     0.001)) * Temp_Max_Mean_61_120 * Temp_Min_Mean_61_120 + I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 +
##     0.001)) * US_Temp_Max_Mean_7 * US_Temp_Min_Mean_7 + I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 +
##     0.001)) * US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30 * US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30 +
##     I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001)) * US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60 *
##         US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60 + I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 +
##     0.001)) * US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120 * US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120,
##     family = gaussian(), data = DATA_Flood_FM3_TRAIN[, c(69,
##         15, 22:26, 28:47, 49:55, 58:68)])
##
## Deviance Residuals:
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max
## -8.9796  -1.0491  -0.1075   0.8493  11.0053
##
## Coefficients:
##                                                                                         Estimate
## (Intercept)                                                                            1.196e+01
## SUB_AREA                                                                              -1.307e-03
## CLIMATE_KG3                                                                           -2.034e+00
## CLIMATE_KG4                                                                           -1.351e-01
## CLIMATE_KG5                                                                           -9.246e-02
## CLIMATE_KG6                                                                            5.954e-01
## CLIMATE_KG7                                                                           -8.786e-02
## CLIMATE_KG8                                                                           -1.235e+00
## CLIMATE_KG9                                                                           -9.303e-01
## CLIMATE_KG14                                                                          -1.717e+00
## CLIMATE_KG15                                                                           9.418e-01
## CLIMATE_KG18                                                                           1.592e-01
## CLIMATE_KG19                                                                           3.243e+00
## CLIMATE_KG21                                                                          -4.571e-01
## CLIMATE_KG22                                                                           2.559e-01
## CLIMATE_KG25                                                                          -1.759e+00
## CLIMATE_KG26                                                                          -7.668e-01
## CLIMATE_KG27                                                                           2.801e+00
## CLIMATE_KG29                                                                           3.644e+00
## Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                                       -2.020e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                                    -3.825e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                                    1.457e-01
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                                   2.154e-01
## Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                                        2.009e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                                     2.786e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                                   -9.157e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                                  -1.183e-01
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                                    -5.759e-03
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                                 -9.257e-03
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                                -9.214e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                               -1.749e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                                     6.340e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                                  2.162e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                                 1.107e-01
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                               -2.000e-02
## crop_ext                                                                              -7.686e+00
## forest_ext                                                                            -8.396e+00
## plain_ext                                                                             -7.453e+00
## wetland_ext                                                                           -3.980e+00
## urban_ext                                                                             -1.573e+01
## bare_ext                                                                              -4.910e-01
## water_ext                                                                             -4.760e+00
## IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM                                                                     1.547e-01
## dor_pc_pva                                                                            -1.755e-05
## sgr_dk_sav                                                                             1.715e-03
## cly_pc_sav                                                                            -1.417e-01
## cly_pc_uav                                                                             1.547e-01
## slt_pc_sav                                                                            -8.590e-02
## slt_pc_uav                                                                             7.208e-02
## snd_pc_sav                                                                            -1.104e-01
## snd_pc_uav                                                                             1.068e-01
## I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                                          3.403e-01
## I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                                       1.017e-01
## I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                                     -1.131e-01
## I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                                    -5.067e-01
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                                      -7.891e-02
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                                    4.900e-02
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                                  -8.559e-03
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                                  2.278e-01
## I(log(GDPPC + 0.01))                                                                  -1.116e+00
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                         -2.074e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                          3.340e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                       -1.793e-03
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                   -1.042e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                    2.030e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                  1.104e-03
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                  1.290e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                 -7.272e-03
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                               -9.732e-04
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                3.692e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                1.843e-03
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                             -2.808e-03
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                   -3.653e-03
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                    1.604e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                 -1.109e-03
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                             -2.307e-03
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                             -1.736e-03
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                           -3.784e-04
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                           -4.895e-03
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                            1.221e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                         -8.670e-04
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                         -1.368e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                          3.968e-03
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                        5.479e-04
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                         -9.006e-04
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                -1.797e-04
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))             -2.524e-04
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))          -8.571e-04
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                -2.036e-04
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))        7.831e-05
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))    -1.474e-04
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))  3.030e-05
##                                                                                       Std. Error
## (Intercept)                                                                            2.896e+00
## SUB_AREA                                                                               1.345e-05
## CLIMATE_KG3                                                                            7.406e-01
## CLIMATE_KG4                                                                            4.792e-01
## CLIMATE_KG5                                                                            4.690e-01
## CLIMATE_KG6                                                                            4.594e-01
## CLIMATE_KG7                                                                            4.581e-01
## CLIMATE_KG8                                                                            4.592e-01
## CLIMATE_KG9                                                                            4.615e-01
## CLIMATE_KG14                                                                           4.523e-01
## CLIMATE_KG15                                                                           5.122e-01
## CLIMATE_KG18                                                                           4.761e-01
## CLIMATE_KG19                                                                           4.976e-01
## CLIMATE_KG21                                                                           6.011e-01
## CLIMATE_KG22                                                                           8.193e-01
## CLIMATE_KG25                                                                           4.545e-01
## CLIMATE_KG26                                                                           4.573e-01
## CLIMATE_KG27                                                                           4.629e-01
## CLIMATE_KG29                                                                           6.352e-01
## Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                                        2.309e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                                     3.094e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                                    3.273e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                                   3.194e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                                        2.968e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                                     4.313e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                                    4.232e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                                   4.428e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                                     2.331e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                                  3.951e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                                 4.159e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                                4.109e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                                     3.142e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                                  5.590e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                                 5.366e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                                5.694e-02
## crop_ext                                                                               1.581e+00
## forest_ext                                                                             1.578e+00
## plain_ext                                                                              1.581e+00
## wetland_ext                                                                            1.581e+00
## urban_ext                                                                              1.584e+00
## bare_ext                                                                               1.773e+00
## water_ext                                                                              1.581e+00
## IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM                                                                     5.858e-02
## dor_pc_pva                                                                             1.370e-05
## sgr_dk_sav                                                                             1.683e-04
## cly_pc_sav                                                                             2.073e-02
## cly_pc_uav                                                                             1.405e-02
## slt_pc_sav                                                                             2.035e-02
## slt_pc_uav                                                                             1.374e-02
## snd_pc_sav                                                                             2.007e-02
## snd_pc_uav                                                                             1.320e-02
## I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                                          1.206e-01
## I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                                       1.031e-01
## I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                                      1.104e-01
## I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                                     9.948e-02
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                                       1.066e-01
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                                    1.306e-01
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                                   1.414e-01
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                                  1.279e-01
## I(log(GDPPC + 0.01))                                                                   9.165e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                          1.022e-02
## Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                          1.353e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                        8.296e-04
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                    7.477e-03
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                    1.083e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                  1.109e-03
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                  8.066e-03
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                  1.063e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                9.759e-04
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                7.380e-03
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                1.009e-02
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                              9.639e-04
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                    9.213e-03
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                    1.281e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                  8.907e-04
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                              9.521e-03
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                              1.394e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                            1.407e-03
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                            1.023e-02
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                            1.343e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                          1.240e-03
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                          9.419e-03
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                          1.303e-02
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                        1.230e-03
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                          3.451e-04
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                 2.569e-04
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))              2.296e-04
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))           2.291e-04
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                 3.258e-04
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))        3.250e-04
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))     2.895e-04
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))  2.917e-04
##                                                                                       t value
## (Intercept)                                                                             4.130
## SUB_AREA                                                                              -97.130
## CLIMATE_KG3                                                                            -2.747
## CLIMATE_KG4                                                                            -0.282
## CLIMATE_KG5                                                                            -0.197
## CLIMATE_KG6                                                                             1.296
## CLIMATE_KG7                                                                            -0.192
## CLIMATE_KG8                                                                            -2.690
## CLIMATE_KG9                                                                            -2.016
## CLIMATE_KG14                                                                           -3.796
## CLIMATE_KG15                                                                            1.839
## CLIMATE_KG18                                                                            0.334
## CLIMATE_KG19                                                                            6.517
## CLIMATE_KG21                                                                           -0.760
## CLIMATE_KG22                                                                            0.312
## CLIMATE_KG25                                                                           -3.870
## CLIMATE_KG26                                                                           -1.677
## CLIMATE_KG27                                                                            6.052
## CLIMATE_KG29                                                                            5.736
## Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                                        -0.875
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                                     -1.236
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                                     4.453
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                                    6.743
## Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                                         0.677
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                                      0.646
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                                    -2.164
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                                   -2.672
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                                     -0.247
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                                  -0.234
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                                 -2.216
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                                -0.426
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                                      2.018
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                                   0.387
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                                  2.063
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                                -0.351
## crop_ext                                                                               -4.861
## forest_ext                                                                             -5.321
## plain_ext                                                                              -4.714
## wetland_ext                                                                            -2.517
## urban_ext                                                                              -9.927
## bare_ext                                                                               -0.277
## water_ext                                                                              -3.011
## IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM                                                                      2.641
## dor_pc_pva                                                                             -1.281
## sgr_dk_sav                                                                             10.193
## cly_pc_sav                                                                             -6.834
## cly_pc_uav                                                                             11.009
## slt_pc_sav                                                                             -4.221
## slt_pc_uav                                                                              5.245
## snd_pc_sav                                                                             -5.499
## snd_pc_uav                                                                              8.092
## I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                                           2.823
## I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                                        0.986
## I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                                      -1.024
## I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                                     -5.094
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                                       -0.740
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                                     0.375
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                                   -0.061
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                                   1.781
## I(log(GDPPC + 0.01))                                                                  -12.179
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                          -2.030
## Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                           2.468
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                        -2.161
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                    -1.394
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                     1.873
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                   0.995
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                   1.599
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                  -0.684
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                -0.997
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                 5.003
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                 0.183
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                              -2.913
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                    -0.397
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                     1.252
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                  -1.245
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                              -0.242
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                              -0.125
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                            -0.269
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                            -0.479
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                             0.909
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                          -0.699
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                          -1.452
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                           0.305
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                         0.445
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                          -2.610
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                 -0.699
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))              -1.099
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))           -3.741
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                 -0.625
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))         0.241
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))     -0.509
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))   0.104
##                                                                                       Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept)                                                                           3.64e-05
## SUB_AREA                                                                               < 2e-16
## CLIMATE_KG3                                                                           0.006025
## CLIMATE_KG4                                                                           0.777965
## CLIMATE_KG5                                                                           0.843696
## CLIMATE_KG6                                                                           0.195027
## CLIMATE_KG7                                                                           0.847924
## CLIMATE_KG8                                                                           0.007150
## CLIMATE_KG9                                                                           0.043850
## CLIMATE_KG14                                                                          0.000148
## CLIMATE_KG15                                                                          0.065934
## CLIMATE_KG18                                                                          0.738139
## CLIMATE_KG19                                                                          7.29e-11
## CLIMATE_KG21                                                                          0.446982
## CLIMATE_KG22                                                                          0.754747
## CLIMATE_KG25                                                                          0.000109
## CLIMATE_KG26                                                                          0.093558
## CLIMATE_KG27                                                                          1.45e-09
## CLIMATE_KG29                                                                          9.79e-09
## Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                                       0.381638
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                                    0.216363
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                                   8.52e-06
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                                  1.58e-11
## Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                                       0.498623
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                                    0.518258
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                                   0.030489
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                                  0.007551
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7                                                                    0.804893
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                                                                 0.814737
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                                0.026725
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                               0.670422
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                                    0.043621
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                                 0.698914
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                                0.039135
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                               0.725424
## crop_ext                                                                              1.18e-06
## forest_ext                                                                            1.04e-07
## plain_ext                                                                             2.44e-06
## wetland_ext                                                                           0.011844
## urban_ext                                                                              < 2e-16
## bare_ext                                                                              0.781824
## water_ext                                                                             0.002608
## IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM                                                                    0.008272
## dor_pc_pva                                                                            0.200328
## sgr_dk_sav                                                                             < 2e-16
## cly_pc_sav                                                                            8.42e-12
## cly_pc_uav                                                                             < 2e-16
## slt_pc_sav                                                                            2.44e-05
## slt_pc_uav                                                                            1.57e-07
## snd_pc_sav                                                                            3.84e-08
## snd_pc_uav                                                                            6.08e-16
## I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                                         0.004768
## I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                                      0.324367
## I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                                     0.305657
## I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                                    3.53e-07
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                                      0.459297
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                                   0.707555
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                                  0.951723
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                                 0.074897
## I(log(GDPPC + 0.01))                                                                   < 2e-16
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                         0.042347
## Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                         0.013604
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                       0.030696
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                   0.163334
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                   0.061012
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                                 0.319546
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                 0.109859
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                                 0.493820
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                               0.318683
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                               5.68e-07
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                               0.855006
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                             0.003585
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                   0.691705
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                   0.210555
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                 0.213241
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                             0.808541
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                             0.900919
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                                           0.788035
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                           0.632159
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))                           0.363183
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                         0.484562
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                         0.146378
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                         0.760671
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                       0.655975
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                         0.009065
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                0.484304
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))             0.271606
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))          0.000184
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                0.531975
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))       0.809570
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))    0.610589
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001)) 0.917265
##
## (Intercept)                                                                           ***
## SUB_AREA                                                                              ***
## CLIMATE_KG3                                                                           **
## CLIMATE_KG4
## CLIMATE_KG5
## CLIMATE_KG6
## CLIMATE_KG7
## CLIMATE_KG8                                                                           **
## CLIMATE_KG9                                                                           *
## CLIMATE_KG14                                                                          ***
## CLIMATE_KG15                                                                          .
## CLIMATE_KG18
## CLIMATE_KG19                                                                          ***
## CLIMATE_KG21
## CLIMATE_KG22
## CLIMATE_KG25                                                                          ***
## CLIMATE_KG26                                                                          .
## CLIMATE_KG27                                                                          ***
## CLIMATE_KG29                                                                          ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_7
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                                   ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                                                                  ***
## Temp_Min_Mean_7
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                                   *
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                                                  **
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                                                                *
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                                    *
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                                                                *
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120
## crop_ext                                                                              ***
## forest_ext                                                                            ***
## plain_ext                                                                             ***
## wetland_ext                                                                           *
## urban_ext                                                                             ***
## bare_ext
## water_ext                                                                             **
## IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM                                                                    **
## dor_pc_pva
## sgr_dk_sav                                                                            ***
## cly_pc_sav                                                                            ***
## cly_pc_uav                                                                            ***
## slt_pc_sav                                                                            ***
## slt_pc_uav                                                                            ***
## snd_pc_sav                                                                            ***
## snd_pc_uav                                                                            ***
## I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                                         **
## I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))
## I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))
## I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                                    ***
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))
## I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                                                 .
## I(log(GDPPC + 0.01))                                                                  ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                         *
## Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                                         *
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7                                                       *
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))                                   .
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))                               ***
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120                                             **
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))
## US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120
## Temp_Max_Mean_7:Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))                         **
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))          ***
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_7:US_Temp_Min_Mean_7:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30:US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60:US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120:US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120:I(log(US_Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 2.770062)
##
##     Null deviance: 167960  on 28517  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  78742  on 28426  degrees of freedom
##   (9 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 110081
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

3.3.3 GAM - Upstream

##
## Call:
## glm(formula = Pop_displaced2 ~ . - Precip_Mean_7 - Precip_Mean_8_30 -
##     Precip_Mean_31_60 - Precip_Mean_61_120 - GDPPC + I(log(Precip_Mean_7 +
##     0.001)) + I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001)) + I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 +
##     0.001)) + I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001)) + I(log(GDPPC +
##     0.01)), family = gaussian(), data = DATA_Flood_FM3[, c(15,
##     22:26, 28:35, 49:55, 59:61, 63, 65, 67, 69)])
##
## Deviance Residuals:
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max
## -8.0882  -1.5607  -0.2384   1.3119  16.0527
##
## Coefficients:
##                                      Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept)                         1.653e+01  5.764e+00   2.868 0.004141 **
## SUB_AREA                           -9.696e-04  2.360e-05 -41.090  < 2e-16 ***
## CLIMATE_KG3                        -2.356e+00  1.022e+00  -2.305 0.021193 *
## CLIMATE_KG4                         1.503e+00  7.516e-01   2.000 0.045526 *
## CLIMATE_KG5                         9.180e-01  6.775e-01   1.355 0.175444
## CLIMATE_KG6                        -8.793e-03  6.786e-01  -0.013 0.989661
## CLIMATE_KG7                         2.126e+00  6.564e-01   3.238 0.001206 **
## CLIMATE_KG8                         7.883e-01  6.535e-01   1.206 0.227767
## CLIMATE_KG9                         6.624e-01  6.562e-01   1.009 0.312807
## CLIMATE_KG14                       -7.439e-01  6.409e-01  -1.161 0.245808
## CLIMATE_KG15                        1.608e+00  7.164e-01   2.244 0.024835 *
## CLIMATE_KG18                        3.522e+00  6.864e-01   5.131 2.93e-07 ***
## CLIMATE_KG19                        1.154e+00  7.850e-01   1.471 0.141420
## CLIMATE_KG21                        2.238e+00  1.462e+00   1.531 0.125767
## CLIMATE_KG22                        4.398e+00  1.033e+00   4.258 2.08e-05 ***
## CLIMATE_KG25                       -9.827e-01  6.457e-01  -1.522 0.128020
## CLIMATE_KG26                        4.610e-01  6.514e-01   0.708 0.479180
## CLIMATE_KG27                        2.350e+00  6.635e-01   3.542 0.000398 ***
## CLIMATE_KG29                        2.326e+00  1.632e+00   1.425 0.154077
## Temp_Max_Mean_7                     6.723e-02  1.090e-02   6.170 7.01e-10 ***
## Temp_Max_Mean_8_30                  2.197e-02  1.498e-02   1.466 0.142603
## Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                -1.112e-02  1.568e-02  -0.709 0.478302
## Temp_Max_Mean_61_120                3.216e-02  1.436e-02   2.239 0.025138 *
## Temp_Min_Mean_7                    -6.429e-02  1.178e-02  -5.458 4.89e-08 ***
## Temp_Min_Mean_8_30                 -4.008e-02  1.674e-02  -2.394 0.016676 *
## Temp_Min_Mean_31_60                 4.815e-02  1.707e-02   2.821 0.004788 **
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120               -5.444e-02  1.621e-02  -3.359 0.000785 ***
## crop_ext                           -1.156e+01  4.022e+00  -2.873 0.004066 **
## forest_ext                         -1.184e+01  4.016e+00  -2.948 0.003204 **
## plain_ext                          -1.163e+01  4.022e+00  -2.893 0.003824 **
## wetland_ext                        -7.790e+00  4.022e+00  -1.937 0.052774 .
## urban_ext                          -1.590e+01  4.024e+00  -3.951 7.81e-05 ***
## bare_ext                           -6.969e+00  4.509e+00  -1.546 0.122218
## water_ext                          -1.085e+01  4.025e+00  -2.695 0.007038 **
## dor_pc_pva                         -1.056e-04  2.376e-05  -4.443 8.95e-06 ***
## sgr_dk_sav                          1.233e-03  2.755e-04   4.477 7.63e-06 ***
## cly_pc_sav                         -4.962e-02  3.710e-02  -1.338 0.181039
## slt_pc_sav                         -5.139e-02  3.692e-02  -1.392 0.163923
## snd_pc_sav                         -4.073e-02  3.665e-02  -1.111 0.266492
## I(log(Precip_Mean_7 + 0.001))       2.039e-01  4.977e-02   4.097 4.21e-05 ***
## I(log(Precip_Mean_8_30 + 0.001))    7.023e-02  3.173e-02   2.213 0.026904 *
## I(log(Precip_Mean_31_60 + 0.001))   3.030e-02  3.439e-02   0.881 0.378376
## I(log(Precip_Mean_61_120 + 0.001))  1.886e-01  3.848e-02   4.902 9.59e-07 ***
## I(log(GDPPC + 0.01))               -5.279e-01  1.632e-01  -3.234 0.001223 **
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 5.139309)
##
##     Null deviance: 107278  on 15024  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  76992  on 14981  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 67280
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

3.4 RF

3.4.1 Baseline

##               urban_ext                SUB_AREA                crop_ext
##              17813.7054               8803.5307               5688.1474
##              sgr_dk_sav               plain_ext              forest_ext
##               4617.1855               3182.8627               2891.2914
##           Precip_Mean_7                   GDPPC       Precip_Mean_31_60
##               2713.6960               2712.2367               2544.1530
##    Temp_Min_Mean_61_120             wetland_ext        Precip_Mean_8_30
##               2260.8103               2194.9802               2087.1954
##         Temp_Min_Mean_7      Precip_Mean_61_120    Temp_Max_Mean_61_120
##               2072.0742               2047.7648               2014.0765
##              snd_pc_sav               water_ext              snd_pc_uav
##               2011.0265               1950.1354               1900.2382
##     Temp_Min_Mean_31_60     Temp_Max_Mean_31_60         Temp_Max_Mean_7
##               1890.4921               1807.6989               1786.6958
##      Temp_Min_Mean_8_30      Temp_Max_Mean_8_30              cly_pc_sav
##               1707.1656               1673.3151               1500.3941
##     US_Precip_Mean_8_30        US_Precip_Mean_7              cly_pc_uav
##               1495.4829               1415.5527               1354.4809
##              CLIMATE_KG   US_Precip_Mean_61_120    US_Precip_Mean_31_60
##               1349.3652               1342.7532               1311.1066
##              dor_pc_pva                bare_ext              slt_pc_uav
##               1204.4090               1195.4129               1180.6187
## US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120  US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60                 US_Area
##               1094.5657               1021.4951                974.3336
##              slt_pc_sav US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120   US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30
##                973.7062                965.5947                959.2397
##      US_Temp_Min_Mean_7      US_Temp_Max_Mean_7  US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60
##                957.5053                945.0068                930.2841
##   US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30      IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM
##                809.9857                432.5774

3.4.2 Baseline - Upstream

##            urban_ext             SUB_AREA             crop_ext
##            21245.020            10107.145             6358.528
##           sgr_dk_sav        Precip_Mean_7            plain_ext
##             4910.128             3690.407             3607.433
##           forest_ext    Precip_Mean_31_60                GDPPC
##             3463.084             3436.841             3311.924
## Temp_Min_Mean_61_120     Precip_Mean_8_30   Precip_Mean_61_120
##             3065.050             2932.898             2877.685
##      Temp_Min_Mean_7 Temp_Max_Mean_61_120          wetland_ext
##             2861.084             2661.888             2620.988
##           snd_pc_sav  Temp_Min_Mean_31_60  Temp_Max_Mean_31_60
##             2529.913             2517.836             2458.625
##      Temp_Max_Mean_7            water_ext   Temp_Max_Mean_8_30
##             2456.143             2333.250             2284.910
##   Temp_Min_Mean_8_30           dor_pc_pva           cly_pc_sav
##             2209.987             2148.473             1813.315
##             bare_ext           slt_pc_sav           CLIMATE_KG
##             1385.732             1354.327             1221.768

3.5 GBM

3.5.1 Baseline

##       [,1]                      [,2]
##  [1,] "urban_ext"               "24.7832524525111"
##  [2,] "CLIMATE_KG"              "11.7384558088561"
##  [3,] "SUB_AREA"                "9.99139542502951"
##  [4,] "crop_ext"                "5.18747738591482"
##  [5,] "GDPPC"                   "4.28980204471834"
##  [6,] "sgr_dk_sav"              "3.72352162774601"
##  [7,] "wetland_ext"             "2.30463595457269"
##  [8,] "plain_ext"               "2.29192418098622"
##  [9,] "forest_ext"              "2.23035952311761"
## [10,] "Temp_Min_Mean_7"         "2.15312095180937"
## [11,] "Temp_Min_Mean_31_60"     "1.9731968961287"
## [12,] "Temp_Max_Mean_31_60"     "1.95131127453802"
## [13,] "Precip_Mean_7"           "1.88959566382443"
## [14,] "Temp_Min_Mean_61_120"    "1.77558470212629"
## [15,] "Temp_Max_Mean_8_30"      "1.76957815427562"
## [16,] "Temp_Min_Mean_8_30"      "1.7466658238005"
## [17,] "Precip_Mean_31_60"       "1.73082723012997"
## [18,] "Temp_Max_Mean_61_120"    "1.67760567429176"
## [19,] "Temp_Max_Mean_7"         "1.66490533640121"
## [20,] "Precip_Mean_61_120"      "1.28365219953091"
## [21,] "snd_pc_uav"              "1.03387871807452"
## [22,] "US_Precip_Mean_8_30"     "1.01405939735013"
## [23,] "water_ext"               "0.988569061512377"
## [24,] "US_Temp_Max_Mean_8_30"   "0.927110320149484"
## [25,] "bare_ext"                "0.861337178712411"
## [26,] "Precip_Mean_8_30"        "0.845100760170389"
## [27,] "US_Precip_Mean_31_60"    "0.70811627325452"
## [28,] "snd_pc_sav"              "0.671046177867599"
## [29,] "US_Precip_Mean_61_120"   "0.662112969666933"
## [30,] "dor_pc_pva"              "0.620490081289399"
## [31,] "cly_pc_uav"              "0.580506968192307"
## [32,] "IND_FLOOD_UPSTREAM"      "0.500758927996587"
## [33,] "US_Temp_Min_Mean_61_120" "0.468896765274664"
## [34,] "US_Temp_Min_Mean_31_60"  "0.462552398467131"
## [35,] "US_Temp_Max_Mean_61_120" "0.442288820432342"
## [36,] "slt_pc_sav"              "0.386094428500977"
## [37,] "US_Temp_Max_Mean_7"      "0.378665173230498"
## [38,] "US_Temp_Max_Mean_31_60"  "0.378210822867523"
## [39,] "cly_pc_sav"              "0.373766979739046"
## [40,] "US_Temp_Min_Mean_8_30"   "0.359192326526047"
## [41,] "slt_pc_uav"              "0.352612301525924"
## [42,] "US_Precip_Mean_7"        "0.309724166562991"
## [43,] "US_Temp_Min_Mean_7"      "0.270040445348732"
## [44,] "US_Area"                 "0.248000226978299"

3.5.2 Baseline - Upstream

##       [,1]                   [,2]
##  [1,] "urban_ext"            "25.5053171277348"
##  [2,] "CLIMATE_KG"           "12.5455521546032"
##  [3,] "SUB_AREA"             "10.755125836093"
##  [4,] "crop_ext"             "5.25726692196578"
##  [5,] "GDPPC"                "4.77559980648387"
##  [6,] "sgr_dk_sav"           "3.79959372979204"
##  [7,] "plain_ext"            "2.52912168065836"
##  [8,] "Temp_Max_Mean_31_60"  "2.47657233098597"
##  [9,] "forest_ext"           "2.47118145861129"
## [10,] "Temp_Min_Mean_7"      "2.27182625979046"
## [11,] "wetland_ext"          "2.26223925104059"
## [12,] "Precip_Mean_31_60"    "2.22182586451101"
## [13,] "Precip_Mean_7"        "2.16636991096542"
## [14,] "Temp_Max_Mean_7"      "2.13650921336018"
## [15,] "Temp_Max_Mean_8_30"   "2.12497264240208"
## [16,] "Temp_Min_Mean_31_60"  "2.11857057107499"
## [17,] "Temp_Min_Mean_8_30"   "2.08293335662438"
## [18,] "Temp_Min_Mean_61_120" "2.03420644583801"
## [19,] "dor_pc_pva"           "1.70681857920867"
## [20,] "Temp_Max_Mean_61_120" "1.62267859339512"
## [21,] "Precip_Mean_61_120"   "1.3197317982121"
## [22,] "Precip_Mean_8_30"     "1.26100565538374"
## [23,] "water_ext"            "1.15152994859632"
## [24,] "snd_pc_sav"           "1.12039266562443"
## [25,] "bare_ext"             "0.988145240806432"
## [26,] "cly_pc_sav"           "0.82744506340067"
## [27,] "slt_pc_sav"           "0.467467892837147"

3.6 By HS02

3.6.1 R2: Test

3.6.2 R2: Validation

3.6.3 RMSE: Test

3.6.4 RMSE: Validation

3.6.5 N: Test

3.6.6 N: Validation