Figure 4. Predicted change in P4_5 for the elevated fuel stratum during 2000-2015 (a) and under RCP8.5 by 2085-2100 (b). X axis is the Aridity Index (AI) calculated as PET/MAP with long-term average SILO climate data. The changes are binned by 0.1 AI. The boxes are the predicted range of changes in probability considering both climate and LAI. The horizontal bars from top to bottom of each box show the maximum, 75% quantile, median, 25% quantile and minimum respectively. The black dots are outliers.Figure 5. The impacts of rainfall seasonality and CO2 fertilisation on P45 of elevated stratum. (a) The change in the P45 of the elevated stratum using either constant or predicted rainfall seasonality under RCP8.5 by 2085-2100. The constant rainfall seasonality is the mean of all nine climate models during 2000-2015. The predicted rainfall seasonality is the mean of all nine climate models during 2085-2100 (Figure S1). The change of P45 is calculated as the difference of the probabilities between 2085-2100 and 2000-2015 with positive values mean increase in probability. (b) shows the fractional contribution of ‘fertilisation effect’ to the predicted P45 of the elevated fuel stratum under RCP8.5 by 2085-2100. Negative values mean the ‘fertilisation effect’ is in opposite direction and of smaller magnitude than the ‘climatic effect’.